The first Spring release comes out shortly, so let’s check the estimates.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
3,191 3,258 3,258 2018/05/30 0 2017/11/15 16 Amanchu! Advance
172 305 305 2018/06/20 21 2018/04/09 4 Binan Koukou Chikyuu Boueibu Happy Kiss!
346 554 554 2018/06/20 21 2018/04/02 6 Caligula
3,106 4,601 4,601 2018/06/22 23 2018/04/08 62 Sword Art Online Alternative: Gun Gale Online
338 511 511 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/04 6 3D Kanojo: Real Girl
936 1,690 1,690 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/06 18 Comic Girls
894 1,509 1,509 2018/06/27 28 2018/03/03 10 Hinamatsuri
94 213 547 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/19 2 Last Period: Owarinaki Rasen no Monogatari
5,632 7,698 7,698 2018/06/27 28 2018/03/28 92 Persona 5
226 284 284 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/05 4 Saredo Tsumibito wa Ryuu to Odoru
2,501 3,491 4,451 2018/06/27 28 2018/03/16 34 Steins;Gate 0
914 1,414 1,414 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/06 18 Tada-kun wa Koi wo Shinai
778 1,054 1,054 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/03 14 Tokyo Ghoul:re
620 921 921 2018/06/27 28 2018/03/23 9 Uchuu Senkan Tiramisu
597 869 869 2018/06/29 30 2018/03/16 8 Mahou Shoujo Site
828 1,573 1,573 2018/06/29 30 2018/03/03 10 Nil Admirari no Tenbin
455 767 767 2018/07/03 34 2018/03/30 8 Kakuriyo no Yadomeshi
208 318 318 2018/07/03 34 2018/04/02 4 Mahou Shoujo Ore
2,631 3,558 5,473 2018/07/04 35 2018/04/05 50 Ginga Eiyuu Densetsu: Die Neue These
1,681 3,117 3,117 2018/07/18 49 2018/04/07 33 Boku no Hero Academia 3rd
968 1,581 3,144 2018/07/18 49 2018/03/17 13 Hoozuki no Reitetsu 2nd Season: Sono Ni
7,134 13,640 21,110 2018/07/18 49 2018/04/02 127 Uma Musume
190 389 389 2018/07/25 56 2018/04/18 5 Butlers: Chitose Momotose Monogatari
3,015 4,279 8,139 2018/07/25 56 2018/03/30 51 Full Metal Panic! Invisible Victory
2,798 4,691 4,691 2018/07/25 56 2018/03/30 47 High School DxD Hero
2,723 6,419 6,419 2018/07/25 56 2018/04/03 50 Lupin Sansei Part V
377 791 1,710 2018/07/25 56 2018/04/11 8 Rokuhoudou Yotsuiro Biyori
1,876 4,008 4,008 2018/07/27 58 2018/03/23 28 Golden Kamuy
119 206 622 2018/07/27 58 2018/04/06 2 Megalo Box
215 502 502 2018/08/24 86 2018/04/10 4 Fumikiri Jikan
236 454 454 2018/08/31 93 2018/03/24 4 Akkun to Kanojo
991 3,109 3,109 2018/09/12 105 2018/04/13 22 Wotaku ni Koi wa Muzukashii
662 1,290 2,618 2018/09/26 119 2018/04/10 14 Gundam Build Divers
121 799 1,963 2018/09/26 119 2018/04/08 2 Lost Song

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of May 29, 12AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of May 29, 12AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of May 29, 12AM JST for high price items, with penalty removed
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title

Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Penalized vs non-penalized estimated
I’ve gone over this countless times so you probably already know the drill, but you see two estimates for some shows because Stalker tracks two numbers for “high price” items, i.e. anything with an MSRP over ¥10,000. The first number is the estimate with a heavy penalty applied, the second estimate is with no penalty applied at all. The rationale for this is that more expensive items have inflated rankings on Amazon, both due to MSRP potentially factoring into Amazon’s rankings and also the fact that the more expensive an item is, the more likely buyers will use Amazon, as they tend to have the highest discount. There’s no way to know which estimate the Oricon number will be closer to, but it’s usually in the bottom half of the estimated range, and virtually always above the minimum estimate. Of course this varies depending on how a title is ranking outside of Amazon. Because the penalized estimate is the one Stalker makes most visible, I always use it as the default. But it’s worth making the unpenalized estimate more visible to reduce confusion.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
This is hands down one of the dullest seasons for disc sales.
• Uma Musume was on track to sell maybe 3-4k but then… Granblue Fantasy mobage codes were announced, and it went crazy. Since the sales seem to be so Amazon-biased even its low-end penalized estimate is probably unrealistic, but a 10k vol 1 sure looks very possible. The bumps it’s gotten after each episode aired recently indicate that the show is getting some traction on its own merits and I could maybe see it having been a 5k series, but obviously the only reason it’s at the top of the season is the mobage codes. Granblue is just so powerful it sells other shows, when it’s not making its own discs rank for a literal year plus.
• Besides that… honestly I don’t have much to say? Full Metal Panic will probably clear a 5k average, which is pretty solid considering how long it’s been since it was last relevant.
• Steins;Gate is dropping hard from the original.
• SAO GGO spinoff is absolutely nowhere near the main franchise.
• Persona 5 isn’t capitalizing on a successful game in anything like the way Persona 4 did.
• DxD Hero is going to be a bit below the previous season.
• GinEiDen DNT started out very strong on nostalgia preorders but has since dropped down to “a bit above average”.
• I’m curious about Lupin’s numbers, as that looks like a considerable gain on Part IV if it pans out.
• Be skeptical about Amanchu’s numbers – it was solicited mind-bogglingly early, back in November 2017, so it’s had forever to accumulate points. Compare its points per day to titles with similar estimates. It’ll be heavily overestimated.

I’m not going to do a top 10 guesses because it’s just GranblUma Musume (or Umablue as the JP sales thread has been calling it) at #1 and then who knows what after it, with only Persona 5 and FMP seeming likely to do 5k… or so I’d say if P5 weren’t two cour and thus likely to drop over time. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure multiple shows will pass 5k in the end, but none are strong enough to feel like a guarantee.

19 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Spring 2018 thus far (2018-05-28)”

  1. Anon says:

    Excuse me,
    Would you check the sales on Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de aru : Yuusha no Shou next week? Since, It will be released on sale starting tomorrow at JST.
    Thanks you.

    • something says:

      I mean, sure, I’ll report whatever is in the charts. The data for it will be out in a week, next Tuesday. Though for me it’s just v2 of s2 since I’m not separating the two arcs. Right now Stalker has it estimated at a range of 6,549 – 9,924. We’ll have to see how accurate that ends up being. It’s been solicited for a very long time which can sometimes inflate the estimates.

  2. Tuna says:

    Only one I have some sort of stakes in is Gundam Build Divers, but I guess it is probably hoping to sell some gundam models and whatever other things kids are interested in, hope it does well as a franchsie as I like it a whole lot. Also probably to drive people to watching it on the various sunrise apps/websites and tv platforms…they seem one of the more tech savvy companies for animes, so no real point to buying the disc when you can watch for free on youtube whenever.

    GGO is an odd case, praised for “fixing SAO’s problems by removing the lead boy” and being the “smart way to do SAO” it seems to not be resonating with people. I do not think the vocal folks are representative of the desires of SAO fans are.

    That being said will be curious how the next mainline SAO does, and if SAO Alternative performance would perhaps prevent SAO Progressives from ever being animated.

    I also do hope they strike a deal and get The Isolator animated.

    • something says:

      Sure, SAO’s popularity is explicitly because of all those things that were disliked by people who didn’t like SAO. In particular everything I dislike about Kirito is precisely why he’s popular. Obviously SAO just isn’t for me, which, ok, that’s fine. So a show that eschews those aspects of SAO is naturally going to have a much smaller audience. I’m not following it because I don’t like how Aniplex does subtitles, but based on what I’m hearing about it, I’d probably enjoy GGO if I watched it.

      Of course, creating an SAO spinoff that people who dislike SAO can enjoy doesn’t have to preclude popularity among people who liked SAO. It being a spinoff is a huge part of this – just look at Prisma Illya compared to mainstream Fate. Granted, these days mainstream Fate doesn’t sell much more than Prisma Illya either, so like you said the same could happen to SAO. The next core series entry might be well under 10k.

  3. Anime9001 says:

    Well, these sales look rather bleak. Although I will say I feel that Steins Gate will have a jump once it dives into the meat of the show, assuming it can stick the landing. After all, the original Steins Gate, while good, didn’t kick things into gear until the halfway point of the series, and I don’t expect this one to be much different. I also feel GGO should end up higher than it’s currently at, but that’s mostly just my gut/taking the original SAO into account.

    The real crime here however is Hinamatsuri being so low. It’s such a good show….

    • something says:

      Original Steins;Gate also ranked extremely well right from the get-go however, never ranking lower than #173 and with an exceptional median ranking of #42. So while S;G0 could pick up later, I’m not sure there’s a lot of room left to do so.

      And yes, Hinamatsuri not taking off is really sad. It’s hands down my favorite show of the season. I just need to keep looking back fondly on Winter and console myself with how improbably well Yurucamp and Yorimoi did because I’m not gonna see that again for a long time. I mean I am glad that Uma Musume is selling so well since that’s my second favorite, but the circumstances there are… unique.

  4. Mami Kawada Lover says:

    >7,134 13,640 21,110 2018/07/18 49 2018/04/02 127 Uma Musume
    Hibike fanfaare todoke gooru made~

    Seriously though, codes aside, as the surprise of the season, I’m happy to see it do well. I just wish it was solely on its merits as opposed to riding on (to some extent) on Granblue (no pun intended).

    Also, I’m kind of surprised at Lost Song, I would have expected it to be doing far worse than it is right now. It’s not doing well at all, but I kind of expected it to do maybe something close to Urahara’s numbers as opposed to being closer to Tokyo Ghoul;re.

    >226 284 284 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/05 4 Saredo Tsumibito wa Ryuu to Odoru
    The show isn’t good at all but it’s kind of sad to see it doing this poorly. fripSide and Maon Kurosaki really need better tie-ups next time.

    • Mami Kawada Lover says:

      >914 1,414 1,414 2018/06/27 28 2018/04/06 18 Tada-kun wa Koi wo Shinai
      I’m surprised the Nozaki-kun fanbase didn’t latch on to it.

      • Liver says:

        Funny cause 5ch posters said Nozaki’s successor is WotaKoi not TadaKoi.
        But I don’t like all of them, so I can’t confirm it :p

  5. SkyLETV says:

    Those Uma Musume sales…. I dropped it in episode 3, does anything happen later that makes me want to watch it or is it the same as in the first 3 episodes?

    And Hinamatsuri needs more love. A shame, since it’s my favorite anime of the season. :'(

    • something says:

      I feel like Uma Musume has gotten progressively better and better as the story has moved along. It handles the girls’ dreams and rivalries and setbacks and successes with a whole lot more grace than I think a lot of people expected. It strikes this welcome balance in which the races feel meaningful and the competitors’ desires to win is genuine, without leaning on tired tropes of asshole rivals, or bullying, or anyone playing dirty. Everyone in this show is super nice, but takes the races very seriously.

      And while the girls are by far the reason I’m enjoying it (especially Silence Suzuka ♥), even the Trainer puts in a great showing, particularly in recent episodes. After a few tiresome early “uh oh he’s a perv (but not really)” gags he’s really developed into a character much like the Idolmaster Producer – an adult professional who sees the girls under her supervision not as romantic options to gawk at, but as ambitious competitors with talent and dreams. He does what he can to facilitate those dreams, and the relationship stays strictly professional. Remove, like, 3-4 short dumb “gags” and he’s an really solid male character, which isn’t praise I give easily.

      All in all I’m really impressed with Uma Musume, and it’s currently my second favorite of the season behind Hinamatsuri (and I love Comic Girls so that’s saying a lot).

      (The sales however are almost entirely due to the Granblue Fantasy mobage codes it comes bundled with. Without them I could see it selling 3-5k – above average but not significantly so.)

  6. Arrekusu says:

    Where’s Doreiku?

  7. Flushme says:

    I’ve been watching Uma Musume’s sales pretty closely and I’m really starting to question if it’s all thanks to Granblue. It seems to get notably boosts whenever it had a Suzuka focused episode. Ironically the first of those was around the same time as the announcement of the Granblue additions.

    • something says:

      Yeah it manages a boost when new episodes air, which is why it’s not -just- thanks to Granblue. But it’s definitely -mostly- due to Granblue.

  8. Dave says:

    Have a question about FMP. Currently stalker is showing about 6k points for it. Will that translate more or less to 6k in sales for vol 1? I know that normally there is a penalty for boxes and they’re usually underestimated so is it possible it could go higher than that, maybe to 7-8k? Does Stalker show pre-order cancellations too? Also, any chance FMP might be frontloaded? Thanks.

    • something says:

      Stalker;s got some kind of bug at the moment that’s resulting in the high price penalty not applying to Amazon-exclusive editions of releases, which is resulting in inflated estimates. So yeah, anything over ¥11k or so is supposed to get a big penalty (around 50%) applied to its estimate. But in FMP’s case, the penalty is only applying to the non-exclusive editions. So we see these estimates:

      4,564 (Amz BD)
      265 (Amz DVD)
      1,398 – 2,694 (BD)
      101 – 444 (DVD)
      = 6,408 (with penalty) to 7,967 (without penalty)

      But that “with penalty” number should probably be closer to 3,913 if we halve the two Amazon version estimates.

      So figure the estimate should actually be showing as 4-8k. Most shows sell in the middle of the range, but closer to lower than higher end, unless they’re doing very well outside of Amazon. The Amazon exclusive for this show is an artbox, and those can be fairly popular, so it’ll probably be Amazon-biased enough to sell near the lower end. Especially since the estimate for the Amazon edition is so much higher (2.2k-4.5k roughly) than the non-Amazon edition (1.4k-2.7k). Those are signs that it will be overestimated.

      I’d say a 5k wk1 estimate for FMP would be reasonable. I don’t think it’ll be much less than that, anyway, but I would be fairly surprised if it’s much higher.

      I don’t think it’ll be unusually front-loaded, if only because most anime is already so front-loaded by default. If it sells 5k wk1, it’ll probably add 400-800 in wk2 unless there’s stock issues. If you’re asking whether I think it’ll drop a ton for volume 2 onward, hm, probably not? It’s only three volumes to begin with and I don’t think v1 has any super special extras that would boost its sales and result in a big v2 crash.

      Stalker does not show cancellations per se, but if cancellations cause its Amazon rank to lower, then that would over time cause Stalker’s estimate to lower.

      • Dave says:

        I see, thank you for your response. That has cleared some of my confusion. I have another question. Since the penalty is not currently being applied to Amazon exclusive versions, you mentioned that we can take cut 50% of the current points of those BD/DVD to get a more realistic estimate. Is 50% just being used as an example or do most Amazon exclusive BD/DVD box in FMP’s situation end up being 50% overestimated? Thanks

        • something says:

          What I mean is that the penalized estimate is usually -about- 50% of the unpenalized estimate for a disc subject to the penalty. Actual sales tend to be somewhere between the penalized and unpenalized, so I guess you could take 25-40% off of the unpenalized estimate (not necessarily a full 50%) for a very rough guess as to how a disc might sell. But this can vary a ton, and the amount of the penalty varies a lot too.

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