We’re coming up on the biggest release of the season, so let’s review Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Already Released

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
4,094 4,094 4,094 2018/01/31 -20 2017/12/06 55 Pop Team Epic

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
16,376 17,234 17,234 2018/02/23 3 2017/11/06 157 IDOLiSH7
4,197 6,235 6,235 2018/03/14 22 2018/01/08 102 Zoku Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru
608 924 924 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/12 16 Dagashi Kashi 2
232 340 340 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/19 8 Miira no Kaikata
270 518 518 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/07 6 Sanrio Danshi
248 444 444 2018/03/21 29 2018/01/12 7 Takunomi.
660 1,144 1,144 2018/03/23 31 2017/12/22 11 Gakuen Babysitters
829 1,250 1,250 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/16 13 Hakyuu Houshin Engi
3,009 6,190 6,190 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 75 Karakai Jouzu no Takagi-san
143 303 303 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/19 5 Killing Bites
438 833 833 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/11 6 Mitsuboshi Colors
291 447 1,203 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/25 5 Ramen Daisuki Koizumi-san
1,288 2,182 2,182 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 32 Ryuuou no Oshigoto!
614 1,149 1,149 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/06 14 Slow Start
2,260 5,197 5,197 2018/03/28 36 2018/01/09 57 Sora yori mo Tooi Basho
2,930 7,098 10,836 2018/03/28 36 2017/12/06 40 Yuru Camp△
856 1,622 1,622 2018/03/30 38 2018/01/12 23 Death March kara Hajimaru Isekai Kyousoukyoku
323 519 519 2018/03/30 38 2017/12/24 6 Itou Junji Collection
724 1,324 1,324 2018/04/03 42 2018/01/06 17 citrus
2,540 4,742 4,742 2018/04/04 43 2018/01/11 67 Violet Evergarden
367 1,278 1,278 2018/04/11 50 2018/02/03 24 Hakata Tonkotsu Ramens
143 281 792 2018/04/18 57 2018/01/19 5 Koi wa Ameagari no You ni
138 516 516 2018/04/18 57 2018/01/22 5 Saiki Kusuo no Sai-nan Season2
1,585 5,603 5,603 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/28 75 Darling in the FranXX
1,182 3,198 6,720 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/12 32 Hakumei to Mikochi
100 418 418 2018/04/25 64 2018/02/01 6 Marchen Madchen
285 606 606 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/13 8 Nanatsu no Taizai: Imashime no Fukkatsu
3,014 5,203 8,473 2018/04/25 64 2017/12/18 49 Overlord II
214 540 1,102 2018/04/25 64 2018/01/15 6 Toji no Miko
20 44 188 2018/04/27 66 2018/01/12 1 Damepri Anime Caravan
1,826 6,658 6,658 2018/05/09 78 2018/01/29 91 Cardcaptor Sakura: Clear Card-hen
1,022 10,420 10,420 2018/05/23 92 2018/02/11 146 Fate/Extra Last Encore
287 802 2,719 2018/05/23 92 2018/01/16 9 Yowamushi Pedal: Glory Line
166 460 1,251 2018/05/25 94 2018/01/19 6 Beatless
49 542 1,296 2018/05/25 94 2018/02/10 6 Kokkoku
1,189 2,545 4,717 2018/05/30 99 2018/01/19 40 Devilman Crybaby
204 683 683 2018/05/30 99 2018/01/20 7 Grancrest Senki
1,819 12,074 12,074 2018/06/06 106 2018/02/01 107 Emiya-san Chi no Kyou no Gohan
1,081 2,803 2,803 2018/06/27 127 2018/01/08 26 Gintama.: Shirogane no Tamashii-hen

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 19, 2AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 19, 2AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 19, 2AM JST for high price items, with penalty removed
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title

Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Penalized vs non-penalized estimated
I’ve gone over this countless times so you probably already know the drill, but you see two estimates for some shows because Stalker tracks two numbers for “high price” items, i.e. anything with an MSRP over ¥10,000. The first number is the estimate with a heavy penalty applied, the second estimate is with no penalty applied at all. The rationale for this is that more expensive items have inflated rankings on Amazon, both due to MSRP potentially factoring into Amazon’s rankings and also the fact that the more expensive an item is, the more likely buyers will use Amazon, as they tend to have the highest discount. There’s no way to know which estimate the Oricon number will be closer to, but it’s usually in the bottom half of the estimated range, and virtually always above the minimum estimate. Of course this varies depending on how a title is ranking outside of Amazon. Because the penalized estimate is the one Stalker makes most visible, I always use it as the default. But it’s worth making the unpenalized estimate more visible to reduce confusion.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
This season has a number of shows with the potential to sell well, but a few of those weren’t solicited all that long ago and some are currently in the middle of boosts they aren’t likely to sustain, making guesses a bit hard. We also don’t know how the high price penalties will shake out.
• Idolish7 is obviously going to sell the most. Even if v3+ drop a lot after the event tickets end, it’s still going to average well ahead of everything else. Maybe by as much as 10k.
• Tourabu is also being heavily undersold here. While Katsugeki was not Animate-biased, Hanamaru was to a huge extent. If that holds this season, that 6.2k estimate is easily going to be 13-16k wk1. It’s my current guess for #2 of the season, though that’s not guaranteed.
• The two Fate/ series are significant unknowns at the moment. They’ve both got high estimates, but /Cooking was only solicited two weeks ago and /Extra barely a week ago. The latter only just started registering an estimate. Both of them are also extremely late releases, which may inflate the estimates considerably.
• Yurucamp is hands down the surprise of the season for me. Just the fact that a slice of life show is selling this well is uncommon, but for it to be one I love so much is wonderful. I do think it’s heavily Amazon biased, so hopefully it’s not overestimated even with the penalty.
• A couple other shows are performing better than I expected, notably Takagi-san and Yorimoi. Takagi-san has four different Amazon-exclusives where 2/3rds of the points are coming from, so it’s possible it’s heavily overestimated. The v2 estimate is a significant step down too. Hakumei to Mikochi is also doing surprisingly well, especially if it ends up at the higher end of its (quite wide) range.
• Im not sure what to think about CCS Clear Card. v1 was only solicited 2.5 weeks ago and in that time the estimate has consistently gone down. It’s also 8 volumes. But it’s doing well at other shops, so I dunno? Talking about averages for shows with this many volumes is kind of a fool’s errand.

Guesses are almost a total crap shoot right now, especially with two of the biggest titles being only recently solicited, so I wouldn’t call the below a terribly informed guess, especially since I’m trying to figure out averages…

01. IDOLiSH7
02. Zoku Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru
03. Emiya-san Chi no Kyou no Gohan
04. Fate/Extra Last Encore
05. Yuru Camp△
06. Overlord II
07. Pop Team Epic
08. Darling in the FranXX
09. Violet Evergarden
10. Cardcaptor Sakura: Clear Card-hen

I might be selling Takagi-san short, but the numbers for v1 just look pretty suspect unless it’s killing it outside of Amazon, which I don’t see evidence of. And I may be putting VEG too high but KyoAni shows tend to be some of the few to get good boosts from HMV. The Fate series may both be too high as well but it’s Fate so I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt (though with slightly more hesitation than I would have before Apocrypha’s mediocre performance). Also I’m really not really sure where to put PTE because I don’t know what kind of tail v1 is going to have.

All in all, this is shaping up to be a pretty decent season sales-wise in the mid-tier, though it’s possible there may only be two 10k shows, or even just one.

40 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Winter 2018 thus far (2018-02-18)”

  1. Hart says:

    Fujo power is amazing as always lol.

    I’m not watching that many this season, so far two of my favorites are Yuru Camp and Yorimoi. They’re fun to watch so I’m glad if they could sell well. Maybe 6-7k average for Yuru? I wonder if Yorimoi could at least have 4.5k average, series is ongoing so I hope it will get better.

    Speaking of which, iirc Yorimoi is also sponsored by government departments. How does that work? Do the government ask back the money they invest from anime sales, or they just let it go (give it to Kadokawa?) since they managed to advertise something(in this case Antarctica) ?

    About Takagi-san, I think v1 could sell lots. Iirc the rank and points incresase significantly after bonuses were announced (Takagi PE uniform and VN?).

    • something says:

      I think what you’re referring to with Yorimoi isn’t actual government funding, but rather that the production got some help (in terms of access to research materials/documentation, advice from experts, etc) from various governmental or educational institutions. That wouldn’t be too unexpected. They’d be listed in the production assistance/special thanks sorta section of the credits here here:

      文部科学省 (Ministry of Education)
      国立極地研究所 (National Institute of Polar Research)
      海上自衛隊 (Maritime Self Defense Forces)
      SHIRASE5002一般財団法人WNI気象文化創造センタ (Shirase5002 General Incorporated Foundation WNI Weather Culture Foundation Center, a foundation related to the icebreaker the girls board)
      株式会社大原鉄工所 (Oohara Iron Works Ltd.)
      竪谷博 (じんから) (Tateya Hiroshi, owner of the pub “Jinkara”, apparently he had something to do with a manga about cooking in Antarctica called 俺、南極で料理してます)
      小林千穂 (Kobayashi Chiho, radio personality)
      桐生市立商業高等学校 (Kiryuu Municipal Trade School, the school Mari and Shirase’s school is modeled after)
      赤坂泰基 (Akasaka Taiki, Kadokawa producer)

      • Hart says:

        Ah, I see. I’ve read somewhere that they’re cooperating with government. Lots of famous seiyuu are here (which is rare these days, not mentioning for an original anime), so I thought they have some free space with their budget with government help.

        Seems that’s not the case huh. They’re pretty confident with Yorimoi I guess.

        • something says:

          I honestly don’t think seiyuu costs amount to very much. The sad reality is that most people involved in making anime don’t make much money. All in all I’d expect Yorimoi to have a very typical one cour budget. Nothing really stands out to me as unusual. But it’s a good thing that its disc sales are looking to be at least decent, because there was an interview with the Kadokawa producer for the show and he was pretty blunt that it has to sell discs to be a success. Media Factory (part of Kadokawa) is leading the committee, so certainly it’s true for them, though perhaps an oversimplification. Madhouse is second, though, which is higher than studios usually are. Crunchyroll is third, so watching on CR is important too.

    • Tuna says:

      I dont know if Fujo power is amazing, as only I7 seems to be doing well, but it was/is already a popular idol game, I guess one could say why isnt it doing even better. Meanwhile other shows like Sanrio Danshi, and perhaps GakuenBabysitters, and the sports YowaPeda have fallen to the wayside. Hanamaru perhaps could do a bit better too. Perhaps the franchise is already having fatigue.

      Oh well, Im glad my show this season seems number 1, the power of my KENN and TRIGGER!!! I always play SECRET NIGHT.

      • AnimePhoenix says:

        GakuBaby is a shoujo though and the main guy has a female love interest iirc so I expected it to flop. YowaPeda still makes money in other ways, so it’s safe. Real shame about Sanrio Danshi though.

        • something says:

          Yeah I certainly wouldn’t worry about Yowapedal, that series seems to be unstoppable. Stage plays, recap films, more TV series, etc. It’s clearly doing something right. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another TV series after Glory Line.

  2. MK says:

    Good god, KoiAme. Not that I expected much, but to see it this DoA does hurt a little. Hopefully the western streaming saves it, though it’s consigned to Amazon Prime.

    This is pretty good season for cute girls / SoL sales. I haven’t heard anything about Hakumei and Mikochi, so a little surprised to see it pretty high up the rankings.

    While still objectively pretty decent, KyoAni must be a bit disappointed in those VE sales, considering the galactic level of hype around it. Changing the emphasis of the novels and having such a slow start really wasn’t a great idea.

    • Elio says:

      I’d imagine Violet Evergarden is going to get a good amount of streaming revenue from being on Netflix though, right? And they haven’t hit the U.S. yet.

      • something says:

        No idea, nobody knows what the licensing fee was.

        • Mami Kawada Lover says:

          I’ve heard from some Japanese producers that, at least for some shows, the licensing fees are already enough to cover the whole budget for the show. No idea if that’s true or not.

          (comment: please don’t approve the original post, I accidentally used a different username)

        • Mami Kawada Lover says:

          On the other hand, an article on ANN just came out, and it sort of implied that, while streaming revenues help, much of the money goes to the people on top instead of the animators. And in any case, based on articles and forum posts I’ve read, streaming revenue alone generally isn’t enough to make up for all losses: they can help, but aside from isolated cases (like I think Devilman), at most they can only mitigate loses as opposed to reversing them. Which is why merchandise sales are still important too.

          • something says:

            “Most of the money goes to the people on top” is literally the entirety of capitalism, so yes streaming revenue is no exception. The anime industry is making record revenues but has no vested interest in doing anything to improve working conditions or salaries.

  3. Makay says:

    Always nice to see when the top sellers of a season are shows about cute boys being cute

  4. musouka says:

    It’s a real pity about Sanrio Boys. Personally, I think it’s completely charming and does everything I could ask a show of its nature to do, so I at least hope it’s moved some Sanrio merchandise if it’s not going to move discs.

  5. Arrekusu says:

    Sorry, if i’m out of the topic, but why Bare-Bones Manga and Novel Rankings in this site is removed?

  6. Leon says:

    Guess Citrus or Slow Start have no chance in hell, huh? By the way, what was the overall sales rate for Konohana Kitan?

    • something says:

      Citrus and Slow Start are both gonna sell exactly what anyone should have expected. However, disc sales don’t seem particularly vital to Citrus. The committee is the print publisher followed by two streaming companies. And while manga is hard to measure, it went from 800k units sold around when the anime started to 1mil units already as of the anthology comic release just recently. And of course the manga does well in English. Speaking of the EN market it ranks shockingly well on Crunchyroll, and they’re third on the committee (behind a Taiwanese streaming company) so that matters. By contrast the disc publisher is way down low in the committee, probably invested barely anything and this won’t be disappointed with it averaging like ~1k. Not saying I expect a sequel but I think the main parties involved (certainly Ichijinsha and Crunchyroll) are fairly pleased.

      Konohana Kitan has only released two of four volumes. v1 sold 1,158 and v2 sold 1,304. From the Table of Contents you can find any available rankings, either by series average or per-volume sales or whatever. The relevant ranking pages are updated every other weekend.

      • Ayumi says:

        So good to hear about this. I’m really enjoying Citrus so far. The relationship is very messy but I’m rooting for a happy ending so I want to see everything animated.

        It’s so amazing to see shows get second seasons without selling any DVD/BD these days. Like Kakegurui, hopefully Citrus will get that same treatment.

  7. Mami Kawada Lover says:

    Poor Grancrest, Beatless, and Killing Bites. While I’m not exactly surprised about KB, seeing Beatless and Grancrest feels weird since Aniplex/Sacra.

  8. Shinseira says:

    Is there anyway to guess if a show is being overestimated/underestimated from this? or is that only once actuals are out?
    Mostly curious how DarliFra is doing.

    • something says:

      There are many different reasons why we might expect a show to be over/underestimated. Fundamentally they all come down to: 1) is Amazon particularly unrepresentative of how the show will sell overall and/or 2) is there something off in Stalker’s data/approach for the show?

      Darlifra doesn’t have anything that’d lead me to expect a particularly extreme miss, although the majority of its estimate is coming from the Amazon-exclusive edition. If the Amazon exclusive is popular, that may imply that a larger than normal percentage of buyers are buying it from Amazon. And that can mean Stalker is overestimating it.

      Its v1 estimate is currently 5,253 (down from 5.6k when I did this post) and 58% of that comes from the Amazon edition. So maybe the current number is slightly high, but probably not to a huge extent.

      But Darlifra’s release is more than two months away, and it’s a two cour show. There’s a lot of time for things to change – in either direction.

      • Shinseira says:

        Thanks for the insight as always. For Aniplex originals, do you know if buyers are more inclined to order from the Aniplex+ shop or is that a case by case basis?

        • something says:

          Just sorta going off memory, I’d say that typically any visible effect from Aniplex+ is less “being underestimated wk1” than “getting a bump later on”.

          While we haven’t seen many examples recently (Saekano s2 is the first in a while), what sometimes happens with Aniplex shows is that when the last volume comes out, all volumes get a modest boost. As far as we can tell, this is due to Aniplex+ orders which were being held until the last volume was out, then shipping all at once.

          If you look at the Saekano bump a few weeks ago, you can see that all six volumes ranked when v6 came out, and with reasonably significant numbers. Returning to the rankings also filled in a couple previously unreported weeks of data for earlier volumes. I don’t recall exactly how much this changed the average, but it probably added a solid 1k, which is noteworthy for a sub-10k series.

          An Aniplex+ bump doesn’t technically have to happen with the last volume. One of the Monogatari seasons got little bumps each time the last volume of a story arc came out, as presumably they were shipping on a per-arc basis. But it’s typically most noticeable at the end of a series.

          So maybe something similar will happen with Darlifra. But that depends on what Aniplex+’s exclusive bonus is, how much it sells overall, and what the ranking thresholds are like in the week the last volume comes out (low sellers probably get bumps too, but not enough to rank).

          • Wagner says:

            Looking back historically, does the aniplex+ bump help compensate for any w1 overestimates?

            • something says:

              There aren’t enough examples to say, and that’d be really hard to measure. There’s probably been less than 10 obvious examples of Aniplex+ bumps and I don’t specifically track them so I can’t just go back and evaluate them all together.

  9. Liver says:

    Yurucamp are really really doing great in amazon and other stores. Do you think it can be the best selling anime this season? I used my savings and preordered all of the volumes lol…. rip my life bye…:’)

    • something says:

      Above i7? No. But it does have a shot at being second.

      • Liver says:

        Ah yeah I forgot i7 exists. But YuruCamp can has higher average sales right? Since △ is just 3 volumes while i7 only has 2 tickets out of 7 volumes

        • something says:

          That’s exceedingly unlikely unless i7 implodes after the event ticket volumes (which I guess is maaaaaaaybe in theory not completely impossible since it looks like i7 is gonna sell at the low end of expectations, based on v1). But anyway, no this would take something pretty extreme happening on both ends at once.

  10. something says:

    In a perfect example of why there’s never a good time to snapshot a season’s estimates, Fate/Extra Last Encore v1 had a 10,420 estimate when I did this post just 9 days ago. Today? The estimate has been cut in half to 5,264. After ranking high in its first week, it rapidly settled down to something that looks closer to Apocrypha’s performance.

    Similar for Emiya-san Chi no Kyou no Gohan, which has declined by about a third from 12,074 to 8,587.

    Meanwhile, it’s probably good we snapshot Yurucamp when we did because its estimate is completely broken right now thanks to spending a few days in the top 5. At the moment, the estimate is 11,205 – 24,882 (up from 7,098 – 10,836). This is of course nonsensical (particularly the high end), as it’s unlikely to hit the top 5 again for any extended time. As far as I can tell the huge boost was because it went unavailable for order on Amazon for a few days. When it came back up for preorder, everyone rushed to get their orders in earlier than they may have otherwise planned, because now there’s a fear of getting screwed by stock issues at release.

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