We’re down to 39 days or less until release for the first batch of Winter titles, with the first one coming out today, 2/19 JST. I want to take stock of where Stalker has each of them now and in the final predictions, not because we should take these numbers overly seriously at this point, but because I want to see how things change when we get closer to 10-20 days out from release (if I remember to do it, anyway). It’d be nice to get a sense of just how much, if at all, buyers are shifting to waiting a little later to decide what to buy.

Seitokai Yakuindomo* is the lone February release. Its final prediction is 750 DVDs and 3,033 BDs for 3,783 total, and vol. 1 comes with an event ticket application. We’ll see how close that is next Tuesday/Thursday.

I am not including anything with a release date of April or later. That’s too far out at this point to even ballpark. That means the following titles are not included:
• Wizard Barristers
• Nourin
• Mahou Sensou
• Tesagure! Bukatsumono Encore
• Nobunagun
• Nobunaga the Fool
• Space Dandy
• Hamatora
• Tonari no Seki-kun

Current DVD Current BD Current Total Predicted DVD Predicted BD Predicted Total Days Left Title Event Ticket / OVA
2,019 1,873 3,892 3,540 3,243 8,042 23 Hoozuki no Reitetsu (A Ver.) Event
386 416 4,694 579 680 8,042 23 Hoozuki no Reitetsu (B Ver.) Event
2,551 2,551 6,009 6,009 37 Witch Craft Works
485 3,439 3,924 659 4,775 5,434 30 Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai! Ren
309 1,891 2,200 658 3,965 4,623 30 Mikakunin de Shinkoukei Event, OVA
1,201 3,057 4,258 1,280 3,264 4,544 30 Super Sonico the Animation Figma
278 2,702 2,980 423 4,064 4,487 30 Saki Zenkoku-hen
1,335 1,018 2,353 2,291 1,813 4,104 37 Noragami Event
138 1,696 1,834 244 3,117 3,361 30 Sekai Seifuku Bouryaku no Zvezda
479 1,156 1,635 1,004 2,128 3,132 37 Nisekoi Event
391 1,328 1,719 565 1,930 2,495 39 Maken-ki 2
248 1,204 1,452 474 1,952 2,426 30 Sakura Trick Event
254 1,198 1,452 407 1,740 2,147 37 Saikin, Imouto no Yousu ga Chotto Okashiinda ga.
221 733 954 401 1,423 1,824 39 Inari, Konkon, Koi Iroha.
267 624 891 496 1,170 1,666 37 D-Frag Event
819 819 1,484 1,484 39 Wake Up Girls!
223 256 479 541 652 1,193 30 Z/X Ignition
199 393 592 337 612 949 39 pupa
473 473 821 821 37 Buddy Complex

Notes
1. Predicted DVD numbers in red are below 600, and are less likely to rank at all. Take that into consideration when looking at their Predicted Total numbers and lower expectations accordingly.
2. If a field is blank, the show isn’t coming out in that format. There are three BD-only releases this in March: Witch Craft World, Wake Up Girls, and Buddy Complex.
3. For Hoozuki, the predicted total is the sum of A ver. and B ver.; they’re just separated for the purposes of clarity.
4. Super Sonico does not include the non-Figma version, becauae Stalkre forget to even add it to its database. It’ll account for very little however.

And most importantly, the above numbers are purely Stalker’s estimates. Some of these are expected to be modestly to significantly underestimated due to strong performance at retailers other than Amazon. I’d put Hoozuki, Chuunibyou, Mikakunin, Noragami, Sakura Trick, and Inari Kon Kon in this list at the very least. Likely Sonico too, despite the crazy things that went on with its ranking. Others are picking up increasingly more steam and could also be underestimated. I’d put Witch Craft Works, Mikakunin, and Hoozuki in this category.

As always, when dealing with anything related to Stalker, keep the many caveats in the Sales FAQ (section 4) in mind. Don’t use the numbers above unless you know what they mean and where they’re problematic!

39 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Current Stalker Data (March releases only)”

  1. Avatar mk03 says:

    Ouch. Looks like all the series I’m following this season are doing mediocre at best (even Chuu2). Better pick up Hoozuki and see what the hype’s all about.

    Also, it seems that ImouCho will flop after all (perhaps because of all the talk of it bein too lewd?) , Wake Up Girls is not saving anime (is Yamakan the reason why sales are pretty crap?), Buddy Complex…. wow… when it was first announced I actually thought it could have been the next Valvrave or Code Geass… How wrong I was… Pretty bad sales for Sakura Trick (no surprise, lewd yuri and Deen rarely sell, but still a shame), mediocre sales for Nisekoi (could even be considered a flop since the manga’s pretty popular in Japan), and Sekai Seifuku…. at least the predictions have improved, right?

    Overall, this is the weakest season I have seen in my short time tracking anime sales (only a year or so?) Let’s hope Spring will save anime.

    • something something says:

      Addressing some of these comments:
      • ImoCho had a sorta kinda decent ranking very early on but you can chalk that up purely to the existing novel fanbase buying a few copies after it was solicited. It never was ranking well after that, so I wouldn’t call it “after all”. There was no real reversal of fortunes, it just never had particularly good fortunes.
      • Wake Up Girls has plenty of its own issues, regardless of who directed it. Obviously I can’t speculate on exactly what impact Yamakan has, but I would at the very least say it’s not helping.
      • Buddy Complex I can’t really comment on. I have paid zero attention to it and the reaction to it, but it was clearly dead on arrival. How much did the short lead time affect it? I don’t know. I don’t think there’s any clear correlation between lead time and sales.
      • Sakura Trick is the sort of show I’m very hesitant to casually assign adjectives to. First off, its sales seem to be coming overwhelmingly from Gamers, not Amazon so it could be the most underestimated show of the season. And describing its sales based on similar shows is just about impossible because there are almost no shows to exactly compare it to. I jokingly said before it aired that I’d buy 5 copies and that would be 1% of a total 500 sales (ends up I bought 6 but whatever) – but it was only somewhat facetious. It was absolutely possible it could have been an under 1k disaster. But now we’re looking, potentially, at sales on the level of a roughly average slice of life series. (If the event ticket drop isn’t too bad.) That alone could be considered a positive development. But it all depends on how much Gamers ends up meaning for it.
      • Sekai Seifuku, whether it improved or not depends on when you looked at it. It had a strong start as is common for Aniplex titles but then just sort of… did eh. Not a lot to say about it, but it’d take a significant change or heavy storefront bias for it to be any sort of hit.

      • Avatar puyopop says:

        It makes me wonder Sunrise really badly marketed or just didn’t care about Buddy Complex considering the upcoming mobile game has a TON of girl pilots that’s SO easily marketable yet the anime went for the boring “all-guy pilots, all-girl bridge bunnies” set up, time-traveling gimmick be damned. Did Studio 8 make it a throwaway show considering their big money makers is Love Live?

        • Avatar mk03 says:

          Did Sunrise not promote Buddy Complex hard enough? At this rate, it could end up being one of the biggest flops of the season, if not the biggest, and to think that it got so much hype before release.

          What happened?

          • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

            Obviously the hot guys in the anime weren’t enough for fujoshi. And I guess Dio x Aoba doesn’t hold a candle to Haruto x Eruerufu either.

            It just failed to click.

            I

            • Avatar layercake says:

              They should have included more girl pilots and more variety of pairings like girl-girl and guy-girl. Good guy, that is such an absolute failure in Sunrise’s part that they had to go the BORING route! It’s not like those fujoshi is going to play the mobile game.

              Idiots!

              • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

                But with just 13 episodes, how would they have developed all those pairings? And AFAIK, at least from the first three episodes, it has a love triangle just like Valvrave. And one of the other girls like Dio too so I don’t think that’s the problem.

                If you’re going to make a fujoshi show, you have to concentrate more the character interactions between the guys. And with too many guys, unless you’re a 2 cour show like KuroBasu, that isn’t possible. Just having hot guys isn’t enough. They’ve got to make them interact.

                Very few shows, at least the ones I’ve seen successfully manage to capture both fujoshi and otaku. The only one I can think of is Inu x Boku SS.

                If Sunrise really wanted to grab the fujoshi’s attention, they should have had 3-5 guys, actually have them interact most of the time not just for five minutes or so and not have any girl x boy pairings at all. I’m not saying I don’t like girl x boy pairing btw. I’m not a fujoshi in the first place. But all I’m saying is that they tried to squeeze too much into one tiny little box.

                • Avatar musouka says:

                  If you’re going to make a fujoshi show, you have to concentrate more the character interactions between the guys.

                  Bingo. I like all sorts of pairing types, regardless of gender, but Buddy Complex doesn’t do any of it well. The promotional material made it seem like it was aimed at the fujoshi market, so I gave the first couple of episodes a shot out of curiosity, but there was very little actual interaction between Dio and Aoba. Aoba and Hina weren’t interesting enough to capture my attention either.

                  It’s (currently) a fact of the market that you now have to grab people pretty early on in order to get their money, and Buddy Complex seemed completely uninterested in doing that. Maybe it’ll become great later on, but by that point, too little, too late.

                  • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

                    Glad that I’m not alone in thinking that way. I was expecting it be a bit like KuroBasu based on the PVs but they just slapped on the ‘Coupling System’ and well…that’s it. Exactly. Not enough interaction. I get that it’s a mecha series but spending 90% of the time fighting and 10% or even less to character interactions…no, that’s not gonna work.Aoba and Hina didn’t capture my interest either.

                    I’m not going to wait till episode 10 or something hoping it’ll get good. I didn’t do it for KnK either.

                    • Avatar musouka says:

                      The last mecha show I can remember that had a huge resurgence among female fans midway through the series was Fafner, and that had 26 episodes to work with and came out a decade ago in a different market. At this point, Buddy Complex would probably need actual kissing to get their attention again, and even then the bump wouldn’t be worth it.

                • Avatar layercake says:

                  There doesn’t have to be a bunch of pairings; 3 at most would be the ideal. It just have one as the main couple while the rest be the beta couple. Or to get everyone a fair share, we would need a creative screenwriter.

                  I am still peeved at the “all-guy pilots, all-girl bridge bunnies” set up puyopop said because that is TOO FREAKIN’ CLICHED at this day of age!!! When the hell is Sunrise ever going to have a lead female mecha pilot in their mecha shows or even Gundam that’s not frivolous crap like that Sora wo Kakero Shoujo?

                  • Avatar kira-kun says:

                    I don’t mind the all guy-pilot, all girl-bridge bunny set up as long as the girls have something to offer. Sadly, not the case here. They should just have had the coupling between the guy-pilot and girl-bridge bunny. Then do some love hexangle-school days stuff with their brainwaves getting twisted. Would be far more interesting.

                  • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

                    I agree. There doesn’t have to be a bunch of them. Even if there’s only two, concentrate on the interactions between them and it’ll work.

                    I also admit that I too would like a decent mecha series with a lead female mecha pilot.

                    • Avatar Name says:

                      Hina is the female lead of buddy complex and she is a mecha pilot not bridge bunny, did you even watch this show…

                    • Avatar puyopop says:

                      For below \/

                      Yes, Hina is the pilot. The ONLY female pilot. Why aren’t there more especially on Aoba’s side? My point still stands.

                    • Avatar Name says:

                      reply for puyopop

                      still that above said sunrise never have female lead as mecha pilot was so wrong…Hina is mecha pilot and she is female lead….
                      and even if they have more female pilots what is the point? you want drama romance or harem? since the producer clearly state the show focus was friendship, if they make boy/girl pilot coupling people would auto-associate that with romance…and if you only want more female pilots not for coupling that they will end up got little screentime and in the end there are no different between them and bridge bunnies…you see the show is Aoba and Dio focus they didn’t really show us others battle except Aoba and Dio because both side barely have grunts..

                    • Avatar layercake says:

                      You’re assuming just because there’s girl pilots, there will be romance. Why not girl-girl pairing like puyopop said? At the very least there’s variety of pilots instead of going the STALE route of 2 guy pilots.

                      And what has Hina done that’s substantial and integral to her character besides that time traveling whatever that’s been brushed aside for nearly half the series? That upcoming island is going to be such a cliched plot device to squeeze out revelations and development out of Hina.

                    • something something says:

                      Just a general (pre-emptive) note, I’m okay with some non-sales-related discussion from time to time, but I do want this website to be 100% spoiler-free, so it might not be the ideal place for in-depth anime plot debate.

                    • Avatar Name says:

                      reply for layercake
                      not i said if girls pilot play important role like for boy/girl coupling people will auto-associate that with romance, if only usual female pilots they will get little screentime in the end there are no different between them and bridge bunnies because we will can’t see them fights as i said before the show only focus on Aoba and Dio…and if girl/girl coupling means that girls pilot will be MC because the show focus is about coupling but the producer clearly said because studio 8 famous for its all girls show they want to tried something different..
                      and about Hina, her character is as enemy pilot and she did enough as enemy, you just can’t said just because she didn’t help MC she didn’t do anything substantial , she did her role as the enemy pilot…

                    • Avatar layercake says:

                      So by doing something “different”, they went the predictable route that been existing in nearly every mecha show.

                      No wonder this series is bombing. There’s no way they can get whatever anime audience to play the mobile game where even that has some originality and gender balance of pilots. And frankly that’s much more needed than having mostly guy-pilots with some token girl pilot just for the hell of it.

                    • Avatar pippi says:

                      layercake has a point there. It’s amazing how most peeps don’t realize the hindsight of things.

          • Avatar randomdude says:

            Let’s face it, Valvrave S2 (best Gag anime ever) has changed Mecha forever and it’s going to be hard for otakus to take the genre seriously again unless the anime studios really sit down and plan carefully a plot that’s not a trainwreck.

        • Avatar steensrping says:

          I remember seeing a bunch of posters at some of the jr stations for buddy complex and a massive billboard in akiba (for about a month in december) for it, so i don’t know if they didn’t try.

          • Avatar sinderblock says:

            I bet those male otaku in Akiba felt ripped out considering none of the girls in the mobige never appeared in the anime.

      • Avatar iky says:

        Took me forever to find you. what happened to that mania site?

      • Avatar hpulley says:

        I enjoyed the latest episode of WUG, at the moment it has saved the series for me (volume 1 still pre-ordered along with the movie and CDs) and it seems like I am not alone. While not tuning into a big hit, it does seem to have received some interest. Perhaps it can hit 2K or dare I dream, 3K?

        And Mikakunin has re-taken the lead due to a larger drop by WCW though both are dropping. WCW hasn’t maintained the weekly interest level through to the next episode like it did the week before.

        Considering that v1 has an event ticket, Nisekoi looks like a flop as far as Aniplex/Shaft shows go. Right now just 4 discs/11 episodes are solicited, will they get out while the getting is good? It looks like a ‘secret split cour’ show to me where the 2nd cour could be cancelled if it has Gin no Saji like sales. While not quite that bad, it still isn’t looking good.

        • Avatar hpulley says:

          The WUG movie I absolutely love! I watched it already 3-4 times on Crunchyroll and can’t wait to get the disc. I wish the series had maintained that sort of feeling throughout, I think that could have given it sales numbers like the movie but I guess 12 episodes generally do go at a different pace.

        • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

          I wanted to like Wake up, Girls! but it just didn’t cut it for me. Even if the latest episode is good, I won’t be watching all the episodes before that just to get to the new episode. Don’t have enough time. Too many other shows to watch. xD

          A new episode of WCW comes up today, let’s see how things go. As for Mikakunin, it has a event ticket AND an OVA so things could drop volume 2+.

          As for Nisekoi, yeah, I thought this would be really popular.

          • Avatar hpulley says:

            WCW v1 has a 16 page manga and a 12 minute short OVA. V3 has another 12 minute short OVA. Modest bonuses which mean I am not dying to buy it but the sales should be more consistent at least.

            Both WCW and MdS have great music sales for their CDs but that is all I’m getting for them.

          • Avatar randomdude says:

            Nisekoi is the most generic and cliche ridden comedy series ever with not that much fanservice, even IS probably had more originality in it. Why would otakus flock to support it? It doesn’t seem to be a big budget series so I suspect it’s probably judged as doing not that bad for a series of its nature.

            • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

              Believe me, I think it’s nothing special myself. I’ve known the manga since chapter 1 came out and I could never understand why everyone loved it. By ‘everyone’ I mean the Japanese AND the English community.

              It’s been really successful for Viz Media and the Japanese tanks sell quite well for Shuiesha. It used to rank really well on the Table of Contents too. It has gone down somewhat lately(rankings) due to pointless filler chapters though.

              But anyway, since it sells nearly 200k per volume and sometimes more, I would have thought it would be a big hit.

              And I don’t know know about it’s budget but it was promoted HEAVILY by Shueisha, they’re really banking on it to become their next To Love Ru. Volume 11 is coming out on March 4th but I don’t think it’ll get THAT much of a boost. Maybe another 40-70k extra sales but I don’t think it’ll get anymore.

              • Avatar hpulley says:

                Remember that another recent Aniplex flop is Gin no Saji and it sells 700K copies of each manga issue so manga sales are not really a good indication of anime sales, may be a terrible one in fact. A ton of 400K+ manga bestsellers absolutely bomb on disc sales.

                • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

                  Yes, but I was thinking that Nisekoi screams otaku and rom com and a bit of ‘moe’ while Gin no Saji’s manga fans are not known to be disc buyers.

                  • My personal theory is that the gap between manga and anime sales for the same series have more to do with the cost difference; manga is ridiculously cheap compared to anime (the prices differ by a factor of 10 and anime comes out more quickly), so there’s a lot less consideration that needs to go into buying tanks than into buying disks. When you change the prices that much, it shifts the decision-making dynamic in nonlinear ways.

                    Also, there’s the fact that a lot of even modern anime adaptations are just colored-in panel-for-panel rips of the manga they adapt. If the anime adaptation isn’t a serious improvement over the original in some fundamental way, why not just buy the manga? The 10k+ manga adaptations in 2011-2012 were Kuroko/Blue Exorcist/Arpeggio/SnK/JJBA/IxB SS. The first four animated some very snazzy action sequences, providing a big plus that the manga couldn’t provide solely with still panels, and the second two were tied to a cast of very popular voice actors (Tomokazu Sugita played a fairly notable role in both) giving great performances.

                    • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

                      I think you have a fair point there.

                      Still, I guess I just expected too much from it. With how heavily it was promoted and the Color Pages it was given to promote it for the anime not to mention they even made a character song single which albeit didn’t sell much, I was expecting it to be popular.

  2. Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

    Extremely happy for Hoozuki. Granted, it’ll probably drop to 5-5.5k volume 2+ including storefront but for a show like that, this this a great achievement already. Not to mention, it’s volume 1 already ranked in the Oricon top 50 again. And it will probably rank in the manga rankings this week too.

    Noragami is something I’m a bit worried about. Volume 3+ without event ticket show that it will sell ~2k without storefront. I’m hoping that it can at least manage 3k. Then again, the anime has done it’s job for Noragami as well. Volume 1 and 2 ranked on the Oricon top 50 last week. It probably won’t make it this week due to volume 1 going out of stock in many places but it might make it next week.

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