Stalker has made some changes this month and it’d be good to recap them. I’ll update the FAQ this weekend, if I remember, but that’ll take longer.

Non-Amazon Retailer Pages
The first thing Stalker did this month was overhaul its tracking of non-Amazon retailers.

Rakuten has been dropped entirely, which is fine, their rankings had essentially no predictive power for our purposes.

HMV is now split into a Daily Top 100 and Weekly Top 100 ranking. This is really nice, because weekly rankings smooth out daily fluctuations. I think HMV rankings are rolling as well, meaning they should always represent 24 hours or 7 days. So we shouldn’t have situations where the rankings are skewed because a new week just started and something sold well for a few hours or a day. Orders will have to hold up well for a full week to rank highly.
One negative change for HMV is that Stalker no longer tracks historical ranking information, which is quite unfortunate. It was nice to see at a glance how a title had ranked over the last month or so. Now that’s not possible. Quite a shame.

Gamers still has the normal Top 10 but a “Popular” (人気) Top 200 has also been added.

Softmap also has its Top 10 but now also has a Sales Proceeds (売上順) Top 200 added.

Animate was not changed this month but only because the “Popular” (人気) Top 200 ranking had already been added a few months ago.

Top 100/Vol 1 Page
In addition to these changes, Stalker has also added a table to the main index_news page that lists the four retailers it covers. I’m not surprised; with almost everything being rather dead on Amazon this season I’ve been spending a lot more time watching the rankings at other retailers, trying to find signs of life. Clearly Stalker saw the need as well.

The exact charts used are:

Animate uses the アニメイトは人気200位 (Popular Top 200) chart. I’m somewhat iffy on this because we have no idea if this is actually a sales ranking, or if it’s somehow measuring popularity another way. One mark against it is how it generally does not match the main Top 10 ranking they post on their website. I’d use this with a grain of salt and cross-reference the Top 10 ranking.

HMV uses the HMVは週間ランキング (Weekly Top 200) ranking, which is updated daily. No issues here; this is a great resource.

Gamers uses the ゲーマーズは人気200位 (Popular Top 200) chart. Just read my hesitation regarding Animate for my reaction to this. It’s not clear how it relates to the traditional Top 10.

Softmap uses the ソフマップは売上順200位 (Sales Proceeds Top 200). No issues here, the wording used (売上順) is pretty unambiguous. it does differ slightly from the main ranking Top 10 but 売上順 is probably measured in yen rather than units, so for example I’m not surprised LitBus Refrain v2 (¥8,880) is behind Monogatari v5 (¥6,580) in the Top 10 but ahead of it in 売上順. 1000 units of LitBus would be equivalent in yen to 1350 units of Monogatari.

Despite some mixing of sales rankings with rankings using unknown metrics, these additions are much more positive than negative. It at least raises the profile of other retailers somewhat and makes all the talk about “storefront effects” a bit more tangible.

7 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Amazon Ranking Stalker changes, 2014/02”

  1. Avatar hpulley says:

    I’m surprised that Chuuni2 didn’t get much of a bump from this week’s episode. Makes me think Stalker isn’t tracking that show well.

    • something something says:

      Looking at its weekly HMV ranking each Wednesday (so, the day before an ep would air) it was:

      1/22: #3, all vols within top 11
      1/29: #18, all vols within top 51
      2/05: #11, all vols within top 30
      2/12: #6, all vols within top 13

      Stalker doesn’t have weekly before the 22nd. It did well then because that was closer to when it started airing and it was still on the initial bump. It was much lower for the next two weeks. Then this past week after episode 5 it picked back up close to ep 2 levels.

      We’ll have to see how it does as of 2/19, which should tell us something about the ep 6 reaction. Though with a storefront-heavy title, things like tokuten announcements also factor a good bit. We know the format of each store’s exclusive bonuses now, but I don’t think final designs for boxes and posters and such have been revealed yet.

      As for Amazon, I barely pay attention to it there anymore, it just doesn’t budge no matter what. It’s not that its Amazon rank doesn’t matter – surely it does, or would if it were to have any chance of selling 10k. But since it can’t get any traction there, I’ve been following it elsewhere. Even if it crushes at HMV from here on out, it’s pulling an IkaMilky for sure, barring a late surge from a good final arc or a lot of fans staying on the fence until late in the season or whatever. Which seems to be becoming more common – but certainly not something I’d swear by.

  2. Avatar hpulley says:

    The first five episodes were OK but six was what I have been looking for and thought others would be too. Could be too late for it.

    • Avatar hpulley says:

      Perhaps I just didn’t give it enough time. Not high yet or anything but it did move…

      And Mikakunin is above Witch Craft Works for the first time in a while. They seem to be battling it out for top spot or what top spot amounts to this season. Both are unveiling stuff as they go but neither one has knocked it out of the park yet.

  3. Avatar Anonymous says:

    Well Girls und Panzer OVA’s ranking is a bit crazy than i thought

    Maybe they afraid it will out of stock quickly,again.

    • something something says:

      Spending 119 of its first 133 hours at #1 is pretty fantastic, yes. We’ll want to check back on how it’s doing in a week or two of course, but this is nothing if not a near perfect start.

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