Previous update: July 29, 2017
We’re farther into the season now and will soon be coming up on a lot of v1s, so time for a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates again.
All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.Already Released
| Points so far | Estimate | Rls Date | Days to Rls | Solcit Date | Pts/Day | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,690 | 7,690 | 2017/07/26 | -44 | 2017/05/02 | 61 | Katsugeki/Touken Ranbu |
| 2,770 | 2,770 | 2017/08/23 | -16 | 2017/06/02 | 29 | Saiyuuki Reload Blast |
| 2,149 | 2,149 | 2017/08/23 | -16 | 2017/06/01 | 22 | Jigoku Shoujo: Yoi no Togi |
Upcoming Releases
| Points so far | Estimate | Rls Date | Days to Rls | Solcit Date | Pts/Day | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 465 | 511 | 2017/09/13 | 5 | 2017/06/26 | 6 | Nana Maru San Batsu |
| 325 | 403 | 2017/09/20 | 12 | 2017/07/03 | 5 | Keppeki Danshi! Aoyama-kun |
| 877 | 1,214 | 2017/09/20 | 12 | 2017/07/12 | 16 | Isekai wa Smartphone to Tomo ni. |
| 127 | 200 | 2017/09/20 | 12 | 2017/07/07 | 2 | Konbini Kareshi |
| 1,627 | 2,100 | 2017/09/22 | 14 | 2017/07/04 | 25 | Isekai Shokudou |
| 1,290 | 1,620 | 2017/09/22 | 14 | 2017/07/09 | 22 | Hitorijime My Hero |
| 3,078 | 4,045 | 2017/09/27 | 19 | 2017/06/19 | 39 | New Game!! |
| 3,479 | 6,161 | 2017/09/27 | 19 | 2017/07/03 | 54 | Princess Principal |
| 1,651 | 2,175 | 2017/09/27 | 19 | 2017/06/23 | 22 | Hajimete no Gal |
| 225 | 316 | 2017/09/27 | 19 | 2017/07/07 | 4 | Vatican Kiseki Chousakan * |
| 11,051 | 28,148 | 2017/09/27 | 19 | 2017/07/03 | 170 | Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ |
| 1,123 | 1,987 | 2017/09/28 | 20 | 2017/07/20 | 23 | Gamers |
| 230 | 340 | 2017/09/29 | 21 | 2017/07/02 | 3 | Centaur no Nayami |
| 512 | 678 | 2017/09/29 | 21 | 2017/06/30 | 8 | Netsuzou Trap |
| 88 | 122 | 2017/09/29 | 21 | 2017/07/07 | 1 | Jikan no Shihaisha |
| 1,251 | 1,764 | 2017/10/03 | 25 | 2017/06/25 | 17 | Tenshi no 3P! |
| 93 | 135 | 2017/10/04 | 26 | 2017/07/08 | 2 | 18if |
| 621 | 969 | 2017/10/04 | 26 | 2017/06/26 | 9 | Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e |
| 306 | 427 | 2017/10/04 | 26 | 2017/07/18 | 6 | Koi to Uso |
| 443 | 721 | 2017/10/11 | 33 | 2017/07/14 | 8 | Action Heroine Cheer Fruits |
| 856 | 1,474 | 2017/10/13 | 35 | 2017/07/02 | 13 | Kakegurui |
| 942 | 1,515 | 2017/10/25 | 47 | 2017/07/07 | 15 | Made in Abyss * |
| 666 | 1,317 | 2017/10/25 | 47 | 2017/07/12 | 12 | Mahoujin Guru Guru |
| 78 | 137 | 2017/10/25 | 47 | 2017/07/07 | 1 | Shoukoku no Altair * |
| 1,136 | 2,010 | 2017/10/27 | 49 | 2017/06/14 | 14 | Knight's & Magic * |
| 94 | 168 | 2017/10/27 | 49 | 2017/07/12 | 2 | Clione no Akari |
| 102 | 248 | 2017/11/22 | 75 | 2017/07/27 | 2 | Dive!! |
| 327 | 544 | 2017/11/22 | 75 | 2017/07/13 | 6 | Battle Girl High School * |
| 405 | 897 | 2017/11/24 | 77 | 2017/06/22 | 5 | Hina Logi: From Luck & Logic |
| 823 | 1,574 | 2017/11/24 | 77 | 2017/07/05 | 13 | Teekyuu season 9 |
| 362 | 860 | 2017/11/29 | 82 | 2017/07/09 | 6 | Ballroom e Youkoso |
| 2,177 | 5,282 | 2017/12/27 | 110 | 2017/07/28 | 54 | Fate/Apocrypha * |
| 16,521 | 25,918 | 2017/10/25 | 47 | 2017/08/12 | 661 | Owarimonogatari Season 2 |
Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet
| Points so far | Estimate | Rls Date | Days to Rls | Solcit Date | Pts/Day | Series |
|---|
* These series fall under Stalker’s high price penalty, and will probably be underestimated more than they normally would. Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant.
The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of August 07, 9AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of August 07, 9AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title
Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.
Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I included Owarimonogatari Season 2 this time. Since last time, the main points of this season have been:
• Fate/Apocrypha looking quite weak for a Fate series, even if it isn’t entirely mainline like Stay/UBW/Zero. While these are the penalized numbers, even the unpenalized estimate is only 9,383.
• Tourabu underperforming Hanamaru and getting no event ticket boost[???] but still quite possibly being the top-selling full-cour show this season, depending on Symphogear’s event tickets.
• Princess Principal makes a late break from mediocre to possibly quite solid sales; it’s the only show to accomplish that this season.
• Symphogear finally soliciting the event ticket we knew had to be coming. It was solicited less than a week ago so right now its estimate is pretty goofed up. In another week or so it should settle down.
Note: For now I’m not including the Owarimonogatari 2 special, but I’d put it at #1-2 since it’ll presumably do the standard Monogatari ~25k.
01. Owarimonogatari Season 2
02. Katsugeki! Touken Ranbu
03. Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ
04. Fate/Apocrypha
05. Princess Principal
06. New Game!!
07. Knight’s & Magic
08. Saiyuuki Reload Burst
09. ??
10. ??
Honestly, there aren’t even two more shows worth putting on the list. Heck, everything from New Game onward is probably ending up with a sub-4k average.
So Made in Abyss pretty much went unnoticed.Sad that anime of this year(for me) will sell like this.
luckily its sales of manga went up 6 times. Still very successful in a way
And people were calling me stupid for saying in prediction thread (which noted it’s estimated to sell some 2k+ but it will probably sell more) that it will sell even less than predicted.
If by “people” you mean “there was one reply” and if by “called you stupid” you mean “did literally nothing of the sort”. Don’t make shit up.
Nah, not here (people around these parts are pretty well-versed in their anime), just on my local community’s website (the only Hungarian portal).
Altough it’s not much of a surprise, they make dozens of threads for every mediocre shounen series, and not a single one for eg. Kemono Friends.
Alright – I assumed “prediction thread” referred to the one here. While we’re talking about MIA though, it’s recovered a little since this post and its estimate is almost exactly back up to where it was in the previous prediction thread: 2,095 with penalty and 4,608 without.
The infamous episode 10 didn’t give it a boost, interestingly, but episode 11 (and the introduction of what I guess is a popular character) did. If it comes in near the upper end of the estimate, it’ll potentially be on par with New Game. But I expect it’ll come in closer to the lower end. I think a lot will hinge on reactions to the double-length finale.
It never broke out to become a hit, though given how low sales are in general, it shouldn’t have too much trouble getting a top 10 spot for the season. No that’s not necessarily worth much, but relative to how most shows are selling it’s… not a flop? But not a hit. This is about the best we can say for most shows nowadays.
Well, the 1h finale for last ep worked its magic even better than I’d expected. Literally the magic of Nanachi (considering it was a very Nanachi centric ep as well). I was hoping that the last episodes would give the series a bit of a boost. Right now both bd boxes are ranking at ~30. It might cool down a bit after awhile, but hopefully it’ll still rank well for the next couple months and fans will continue to support the series in Japan.
No 18if love, poor haruto :(
Who’s on the committee for Ballroom? I think that’s gotta be one of the biggest disappointments of the season, what with the long hype train and coming at the tails of Haikyuu and the massive YoI success, on a season with no other sports anime offerings. Though I guess the show itself doesn’t quite lend itself to the fujoshi market and the female demographic in general
The committee is:
Pony Canyon
Kodansha
Production IG
Animatic
Dentsu
Toys Factory
Bandai Namco Games
MBS
Movic
Where can I find the committees easily? thx
The only easy way is usually to rely on someone else to do the work, which is how I usually go about it. @Ultimatemegax does a good job keeping track of these, and has a spreadsheet that’s tracking 2017 shows so far: Anime Production Committees 2017
Otherwise, there are two ways. One is to check the credits of the episode. Usually during the OP, though I’ve seen it during the ED sometimes.
For example, here’s the committee in the credits for Gabriel Dropout [link].
Sometimes, they only list the committee with a collective name, unfortunately. Flip Flappers is an example: [link]
In the latter cases, the only way to tell is usually to look at the producers in the credits, google them, figure out who they work for, and reconstruct it that way: [link]
But that’s a ton of work, so if I don’t see the committee listed out in the credits, I’ll basically just hope Umx already has it on his spreadsheet.
I guess that’s the problem: What exactly is Welcome to the Ballroom’s target demographic?
Shonen? But the “sport” (ballroom dancing) is hardly one young boys and teenagers can be said to be very interested in, and there’s fewer opportunities for exciting action as in eg Haikyuu.
Women / the fujoshi market? The character designs are hardly the typical bishonen variety, and there’s no real implications / “baiting” between the male characters at all. Actually the show went out of its way to emphasise the male MC has a crush on a girl within its first episode. The poor handling of the female characters has also left a bad taste in many female viewers’ mouths (despite the manga author being a woman).
I can’t speak for the Japanese market, but in the West I’ve seen many YoI fans start watching this anime and then be disappointed because really it’s not like YoI at all. It seems many people who hadn’t read the manga assumed they would be similar.
That said, even as a fully-paid-up YoI fan, I find Ballroom to be enjoyable and reasonably well made. I find it sad it’ll be buried underneath far trashier shows like Hajimete no Gal.
Overall looks to be a pretty weak season for disc sales if there are ballpark correct. Quite a few IMO decent-to-good shows like MiA, Kakegurui, Ballroom, Centaur doing poorly. I live in hope of a MiA sequel but it’s not looking that likely, even with increased manga sales.
New Game!! is awesome this season, dont know why the predict is so low T_T
Great post. But RIP my shows:
Hitorijime My Hero
Kakegurui
Vatican Kiseki Chousakan
Shoukoku no Altair
Tracking Symphogear’s sales is so much fun. The show is a phenomenon in its own way. Even without the event tickets it would do notably well. When was the last time an anime original got announced a 4th and 5th season together?
Monogatari Series is far from reaching Bakemonogatari’s sales but is very solid always selling 20-30k. At that rate I wonder if they’ll animate it beyond the main story.
I feel bad for Centaur no Nayami. I applaud it for touching many themes you rarely see in anime.
On the other hand it’s nice to see Princess Principal doing well after Flip Flappers flopped so hard for Studio 3Hz in terms of sales.
I can’t accept that Made in Abyss is below Hajimete no Gal. It has lolis and blood, I dont understand Japan anymore
There’s not much to be gained in comparing shows that are trying to achieve completely different things for different audiences. (Also, odds are still >50% that MIA averages more in the end due to the way the estimates work.)