Previous update: July 29, 2017

We’re farther into the season now and will soon be coming up on a lot of v1s, so time for a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates again.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Already Released

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
7,690 7,690 2017/07/26 -44 2017/05/02 61 Katsugeki/Touken Ranbu
2,770 2,770 2017/08/23 -16 2017/06/02 29 Saiyuuki Reload Blast
2,149 2,149 2017/08/23 -16 2017/06/01 22 Jigoku Shoujo: Yoi no Togi

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
465 511 2017/09/13 5 2017/06/26 6 Nana Maru San Batsu
325 403 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/03 5 Keppeki Danshi! Aoyama-kun
877 1,214 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/12 16 Isekai wa Smartphone to Tomo ni.
127 200 2017/09/20 12 2017/07/07 2 Konbini Kareshi
1,627 2,100 2017/09/22 14 2017/07/04 25 Isekai Shokudou
1,290 1,620 2017/09/22 14 2017/07/09 22 Hitorijime My Hero
3,078 4,045 2017/09/27 19 2017/06/19 39 New Game!!
3,479 6,161 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/03 54 Princess Principal
1,651 2,175 2017/09/27 19 2017/06/23 22 Hajimete no Gal
225 316 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/07 4 Vatican Kiseki Chousakan *
11,051 28,148 2017/09/27 19 2017/07/03 170 Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ
1,123 1,987 2017/09/28 20 2017/07/20 23 Gamers
230 340 2017/09/29 21 2017/07/02 3 Centaur no Nayami
512 678 2017/09/29 21 2017/06/30 8 Netsuzou Trap
88 122 2017/09/29 21 2017/07/07 1 Jikan no Shihaisha
1,251 1,764 2017/10/03 25 2017/06/25 17 Tenshi no 3P!
93 135 2017/10/04 26 2017/07/08 2 18if
621 969 2017/10/04 26 2017/06/26 9 Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
306 427 2017/10/04 26 2017/07/18 6 Koi to Uso
443 721 2017/10/11 33 2017/07/14 8 Action Heroine Cheer Fruits
856 1,474 2017/10/13 35 2017/07/02 13 Kakegurui
942 1,515 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/07 15 Made in Abyss *
666 1,317 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/12 12 Mahoujin Guru Guru
78 137 2017/10/25 47 2017/07/07 1 Shoukoku no Altair *
1,136 2,010 2017/10/27 49 2017/06/14 14 Knight's & Magic *
94 168 2017/10/27 49 2017/07/12 2 Clione no Akari
102 248 2017/11/22 75 2017/07/27 2 Dive!!
327 544 2017/11/22 75 2017/07/13 6 Battle Girl High School *
405 897 2017/11/24 77 2017/06/22 5 Hina Logi: From Luck & Logic
823 1,574 2017/11/24 77 2017/07/05 13 Teekyuu season 9
362 860 2017/11/29 82 2017/07/09 6 Ballroom e Youkoso
2,177 5,282 2017/12/27 110 2017/07/28 54 Fate/Apocrypha *
16,521 25,918 2017/10/25 47 2017/08/12 661 Owarimonogatari Season 2

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series

* These series fall under Stalker’s high price penalty, and will probably be underestimated more than they normally would. Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant.

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of August 07, 9AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of August 07, 9AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title

Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I included Owarimonogatari Season 2 this time. Since last time, the main points of this season have been:
• Fate/Apocrypha looking quite weak for a Fate series, even if it isn’t entirely mainline like Stay/UBW/Zero. While these are the penalized numbers, even the unpenalized estimate is only 9,383.
• Tourabu underperforming Hanamaru and getting no event ticket boost[???] but still quite possibly being the top-selling full-cour show this season, depending on Symphogear’s event tickets.
• Princess Principal makes a late break from mediocre to possibly quite solid sales; it’s the only show to accomplish that this season.
• Symphogear finally soliciting the event ticket we knew had to be coming. It was solicited less than a week ago so right now its estimate is pretty goofed up. In another week or so it should settle down.

Note: For now I’m not including the Owarimonogatari 2 special, but I’d put it at #1-2 since it’ll presumably do the standard Monogatari ~25k.

01. Owarimonogatari Season 2
02. Katsugeki! Touken Ranbu
03. Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ
04. Fate/Apocrypha
05. Princess Principal
06. New Game!!
07. Knight’s & Magic
08. Saiyuuki Reload Burst
09. ??
10. ??

Honestly, there aren’t even two more shows worth putting on the list. Heck, everything from New Game onward is probably ending up with a sub-4k average.

19 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Summer 2017 thus far (2017-09-06)”

  1. Papa Shango says:

    So Made in Abyss pretty much went unnoticed.Sad that anime of this year(for me) will sell like this.

    • sam says:

      luckily its sales of manga went up 6 times. Still very successful in a way

    • yorgash says:

      And people were calling me stupid for saying in prediction thread (which noted it’s estimated to sell some 2k+ but it will probably sell more) that it will sell even less than predicted.

      • something says:

        If by “people” you mean “there was one reply” and if by “called you stupid” you mean “did literally nothing of the sort”. Don’t make shit up.

        • yorgash says:

          Nah, not here (people around these parts are pretty well-versed in their anime), just on my local community’s website (the only Hungarian portal).
          Altough it’s not much of a surprise, they make dozens of threads for every mediocre shounen series, and not a single one for eg. Kemono Friends.

          • something says:

            Alright – I assumed “prediction thread” referred to the one here. While we’re talking about MIA though, it’s recovered a little since this post and its estimate is almost exactly back up to where it was in the previous prediction thread: 2,095 with penalty and 4,608 without.

            The infamous episode 10 didn’t give it a boost, interestingly, but episode 11 (and the introduction of what I guess is a popular character) did. If it comes in near the upper end of the estimate, it’ll potentially be on par with New Game. But I expect it’ll come in closer to the lower end. I think a lot will hinge on reactions to the double-length finale.

            It never broke out to become a hit, though given how low sales are in general, it shouldn’t have too much trouble getting a top 10 spot for the season. No that’s not necessarily worth much, but relative to how most shows are selling it’s… not a flop? But not a hit. This is about the best we can say for most shows nowadays.

            • anon says:

              Well, the 1h finale for last ep worked its magic even better than I’d expected. Literally the magic of Nanachi (considering it was a very Nanachi centric ep as well). I was hoping that the last episodes would give the series a bit of a boost. Right now both bd boxes are ranking at ~30. It might cool down a bit after awhile, but hopefully it’ll still rank well for the next couple months and fans will continue to support the series in Japan.

  2. Tuna says:

    No 18if love, poor haruto :(

  3. atala says:

    Who’s on the committee for Ballroom? I think that’s gotta be one of the biggest disappointments of the season, what with the long hype train and coming at the tails of Haikyuu and the massive YoI success, on a season with no other sports anime offerings. Though I guess the show itself doesn’t quite lend itself to the fujoshi market and the female demographic in general

    • something says:

      The committee is:
      Pony Canyon
      Production IG
      Toys Factory
      Bandai Namco Games

      • Hanns says:

        Where can I find the committees easily? thx

        • something says:

          The only easy way is usually to rely on someone else to do the work, which is how I usually go about it. @Ultimatemegax does a good job keeping track of these, and has a spreadsheet that’s tracking 2017 shows so far: Anime Production Committees 2017

          Otherwise, there are two ways. One is to check the credits of the episode. Usually during the OP, though I’ve seen it during the ED sometimes.

          For example, here’s the committee in the credits for Gabriel Dropout [link].
          Sometimes, they only list the committee with a collective name, unfortunately. Flip Flappers is an example: [link]
          In the latter cases, the only way to tell is usually to look at the producers in the credits, google them, figure out who they work for, and reconstruct it that way: [link]

          But that’s a ton of work, so if I don’t see the committee listed out in the credits, I’ll basically just hope Umx already has it on his spreadsheet.

    • MK says:

      I guess that’s the problem: What exactly is Welcome to the Ballroom’s target demographic?

      Shonen? But the “sport” (ballroom dancing) is hardly one young boys and teenagers can be said to be very interested in, and there’s fewer opportunities for exciting action as in eg Haikyuu.

      Women / the fujoshi market? The character designs are hardly the typical bishonen variety, and there’s no real implications / “baiting” between the male characters at all. Actually the show went out of its way to emphasise the male MC has a crush on a girl within its first episode. The poor handling of the female characters has also left a bad taste in many female viewers’ mouths (despite the manga author being a woman).

      I can’t speak for the Japanese market, but in the West I’ve seen many YoI fans start watching this anime and then be disappointed because really it’s not like YoI at all. It seems many people who hadn’t read the manga assumed they would be similar.

      That said, even as a fully-paid-up YoI fan, I find Ballroom to be enjoyable and reasonably well made. I find it sad it’ll be buried underneath far trashier shows like Hajimete no Gal.

  4. MK says:

    Overall looks to be a pretty weak season for disc sales if there are ballpark correct. Quite a few IMO decent-to-good shows like MiA, Kakegurui, Ballroom, Centaur doing poorly. I live in hope of a MiA sequel but it’s not looking that likely, even with increased manga sales.

  5. Nep says:

    New Game!! is awesome this season, dont know why the predict is so low T_T

  6. Ayumi says:

    Great post. But RIP my shows:

    Hitorijime My Hero
    Vatican Kiseki Chousakan
    Shoukoku no Altair

  7. Flushme says:

    Tracking Symphogear’s sales is so much fun. The show is a phenomenon in its own way. Even without the event tickets it would do notably well. When was the last time an anime original got announced a 4th and 5th season together?

    Monogatari Series is far from reaching Bakemonogatari’s sales but is very solid always selling 20-30k. At that rate I wonder if they’ll animate it beyond the main story.

    I feel bad for Centaur no Nayami. I applaud it for touching many themes you rarely see in anime.

    On the other hand it’s nice to see Princess Principal doing well after Flip Flappers flopped so hard for Studio 3Hz in terms of sales.

  8. Alvaro says:

    I can’t accept that Made in Abyss is below Hajimete no Gal. It has lolis and blood, I dont understand Japan anymore

    • something says:

      There’s not much to be gained in comparing shows that are trying to achieve completely different things for different audiences. (Also, odds are still >50% that MIA averages more in the end due to the way the estimates work.)

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