Did one of these for Fall 2016, albeit at a later point in the season, I think.
All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker. Over/Under assumptions and comments below the table are my own.
Upcoming Releases
| Points so far | Estimate | Rls Date | Days to Rls | Solcit Date | Pts/Day | Over/Under | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,910 | 25,994 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2016/12/21 | 144 | Over | Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2 |
| 2,593 | 10,977 | 2017/04/26 | 76 | 2017/01/15 | 113 | Over | Youjo Senki |
| 1,718 | 2,792 | 2017/03/08 | 27 | 2016/12/17 | 33 | Under | Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen |
| 1,709 | 7,392 | 2017/04/26 | 76 | 2017/01/16 | 78 | Gintama. | |
| 1,328 | 3,964 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2016/12/19 | 27 | Over | Gabriel Dropout |
| 1,300 | 4,383 | 2017/04/21 | 71 | 2016/12/22 | 28 | ACCA: 13-ku Kansatsu-ka | |
| 1,201 | 3,129 | 2017/04/19 | 69 | 2017/01/08 | 40 | Little Witch Academia | |
| 1,109 | 2,653 | 2017/03/22 | 41 | 2017/01/14 | 46 | Demi-chan wa Kataritai | |
| 1,105 | 2,004 | 2017/03/29 | 48 | 2016/12/29 | 28 | Fuuka | |
| 987 | 1,601 | 2017/04/26 | 76 | 2016/09/25 | 7 | Rewrite Season 2 | |
| 910 | 3,670 | 2017/04/12 | 62 | 2017/01/16 | 41 | Under | Yowamushi Pedal New Generation |
| 887 | 2,556 | 2017/03/15 | 34 | 2017/01/12 | 34 | Kobayashi-san Chi no Maid Dragon | |
| 833 | 7,853 | 2017/05/24 | 104 | 2017/01/21 | 49 | Over | BanG Dream! |
| 754 | 1,265 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2016/12/19 | 15 | Super Lovers 2 | |
| 703 | 1,750 | 2017/04/05 | 55 | 2017/01/13 | 28 | Seiren | |
| 693 | 1,793 | 2017/03/29 | 48 | 2017/01/12 | 27 | Under | Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang |
| 618 | 1,594 | 2017/03/22 | 41 | 2016/12/29 | 15 | Masamune-kun no Revenge | |
| 569 | 2,280 | 2017/05/26 | 106 | 2017/01/11 | 21 | One Room | |
| 520 | 1,186 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2017/01/13 | 21 | Urara Meirochou | |
| 440 | 720 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2016/12/15 | 8 | Chaos;Child | |
| 428 | 1,202 | 2017/03/29 | 48 | 2017/01/13 | 17 | Kuzu no Honkai | |
| 356 | 997 | 2017/03/29 | 48 | 2017/01/20 | 20 | Schoolgirl Strikers Animation Channel | |
| 230 | 493 | 2017/03/22 | 41 | 2017/01/08 | 8 | Idol Jihen | |
| 191 | 529 | 2017/04/12 | 62 | 2017/01/13 | 8 | Minami Kamakura Koukou Joshi Jitensha-bu | |
| 148 | 347 | 2017/03/29 | 48 | 2017/01/07 | 5 | ēlDLIVE | |
| 111 | 223 | 2017/03/24 | 43 | 2016/12/26 | 3 | Hand Shakers | |
| 80 | 184 | 2017/04/04 | 54 | 2017/01/05 | 2 | Akiba's Trip: The Animation |
The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title
Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.
Overestimation expectations
• Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2 – Ignore this estimate. It’s just coming off a massive boost after details of this season’s v1 pack-in game were announced. It spent some time in the top 5 and that’s skewing the estimates extremely hard.
• BanG Dream! – This one isn’t quite as insanely skewed as Konosuba, but it’s also in the middle of a bump, this time for details the v1 event ticket being announced. It’s also a very late release so the current boost is further exaggerated by there being so many days left
• Youjo Senki – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.
• Gabriel Dropout – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.
Underestimation expectations
• Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen – Based on previous season.
• Yowamushi Pedal New Generation – Based on previous season.
• Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang – Idol boys.
Anything not mentioned in the two groups above I either expect to be reasonably close to estimates (less than 20% either way), or just don’t have enough information to form an expectation.
Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I’m not going to bother this early. Konosuba seems like a lock for #1-2 and might average 10k again. Youjo Senki has had a lot of staying power, so we’ll see how it does.
Comments
• Pretty weak season. Uh, yeah not much else for me to say. The stuff I’m potentially importing is all looking either middling (LWA, Gabdro) or dead (Urara, Minakama) as per usual. LWA I don’t see averaging even 3k given it’s two cour, and Urara/Minakama will be sub-1k. Gabdro is the one with potential to at least average 3k but I’m not convinced the Stalker estimate is accurate given the MSRP issue.
I’m watching ACCA but 4,383 seems too high for that show. I don’t even think it’s aimed for the fujoshi audience. As of the latest episode, I can’t figure out which audience the show’s trying to attract. Is it doing well on Animate?
I think that one might be overestimated too because Amazon is one of the stores you can get the artbox at, and is presumably the cheapest of them. But don’t know enough to be sure.
Well, it´s the “mature” josei show from the season (in addition to Rakugo), that should have its audience plus the manga fan, Natsume Ono is a well-known author.
I wonder about Maid Dragon’s estimate, there seems to be a decent amount of fan art hitting pixiv and I’ve noticed that sometimes relates to strong fanbases….and higher than expected disk sales. Makes you wonder how much the Kyoani store manages to sell. Or maybe Kyoani’s string of middling series really has killed any bump they used to get just for being Kyoani.
Possibly. More than half of all the images in the tag ever uploaded are from the past week (800 out of 1600) which might represent a sudden huge increase in popularity. Or might not. Its ranking has also been higher in the past week or two than before. But it’s an early release so there’s not as much time for that to be reflected in the estimate.
I’m always skeptical of any correlation between fanart and disc sales, though I’ve not tried to quantify it.
Nothing but arm(or desk)chair speculation on my part, if only we had ALL the data we could have some fun using analytics to see correlations in the communities and their purchases/spending habits.
Can you also include Kemono Friends?
It’s being sold as a guidebook with the BD episodes as extra, instead of the other way around, so Amazon lists it under books.
I can’t because:
1. Stalker doesn’t track and provide estimates for books, so there’s no estimate to provide.
2. It’s 3DCG show, which does not count as anime here.
Kemono Friends v1 _was_ up to #3 on the overall Amazon booklist, above SAO and Onii-sama light novels but… it is now unavailable. Amazon must have run out of pre-orders already. I don’t understand why but there is huge demand on that CGI kids geography and nature educational show… with some yuri kisses, apparently that’s a rodent greeting…
Something, will you be tracking Hand Shakers? It may not rank anyway but it looks like it’s pretty much 100% CGI to me.
Hand shakers isn’t full 3DCG (the characters at least are 2D), it’s just breathtakingly ugly: https://blog.sakugabooru.com/2017/01/13/anime-craft-weekly-26-please-gohands-and-never-come-back/
I did not need to see the point to see that youjo senkai and konsuba 2 are going to be the best sellers, that was a given.
Gabriel Drop out is doing ok i guess
but i am really dissapointed with Dragon maid and interviews of a monster girl…was hoping for a bit more.
Akiba’s trip…ok could someone explain to me how studio Gonzo is still alive after all these years of poor sellers?
Gonzo is owned by a larger company, Iwakaze Capital. Now what they’re getting out of all this… I’m not sure.
What about grand blue fantasy how are their numbers going
It’s a Spring series, but v1 should sell quite a lot. It has a special code for the mobage to get a SSR character. The points to date are 20,738 and the estimate is 38,820 although that may go down over time. What’s unclear is if it’s Amazon biased or not.
Come on Trigger, you can do better.
I think they are underestimating LWA. The same for Kobayashi-san.
The latter will be to some extent but I’m not sure about LWA. Getting people to buy a one-shot ONA vs getting them to buy a two cour, 9 volume TV series is a very different thing (as Yama no Susume recently saw, in a sorta similar case). LWA does -okay- at HMV but that’s about it. It’s really lost momentum at Amazon. Even if v1 cranks out about a 4k v1 in a good scenario, I have a feeling the average will be rather poor by the end.
It may make that up in other ways (the Netflix deal is probably worth a good amount) but disc sales aren’t going to be strong.
Hopefully Gintama and little witch academia to sells very good
Of my fav shows this season, only Marginal #4 is doing average, the rest are doing so bad :( (Hand Shakers, Super Lovers 2). Sad season. Though Im at least glad we got a Super Lovers 2, had not expected that ever.
I’m surprised Marginal #4 is not selling as well as the other idol shows. It’s actually much better than the other male idol shows pulling 7000 and up. (This and Starmyu is my favorite in the Idol genre.)
This season of Super Lovers has been fun. I’m also glad we got a second season so it didn’t end in a cliffhanger. This is probably the final season because the sales are horrible.
Don’t worry about Super Lovers, the manga is selling so well, Vol.9 sold even higher than Junjou Romantica Vol.21.
Kinda didnt expect those predictions for youjo senki but i guess an evil loli does the trick was expecting more around the 5k mark max that it could sell maybe since the manga and LN stuff is getting a nice boost
We’re in a market where 10k for pretty much anything except a sequel to a 10k-selling show is always a surprise to some extent. Though I still think Youjo Senki is somewhat overestimated.
Didn’t expect to enjoy Youjo Senki so much. Probably won’t buy DVDs. Maybe some merch. Really fantastic animation. Sigh, wish YOI had gorgeous animation like this. No disrespect to MAPPA but wonder what YOI would have looked like had Studio NuT or Kyoani animated the series
Kyoani’s style would really not fit with yoi in my opinion. I love their animation and anime but it would not work at all.
Yes I agree with JJ. Also, Kyoani is famous for queerbaiting so they wouldn’t have gone as far as making Yuri and Victor kiss and go canon. I wouldn’t traded Kyoani for MAPPA. MAPPA is more artistic and daring if you look at their previous works.
We can see here another good example of how much Stalker’s estimates can be skewed by a temporary high rankings. I posted this less than a week ago and now Konosuba’s estimate is already back down to a probably still somewhat high but far, far more realistic 14,684.
All those days in the top 10 have aged out of the 7 day moving window used to calculate the estimate. In another 4 days it should settle down closer to ~12k as its time in the top 50 ages out of the estimate window as well. And then it may drop further until release. 10k v1 still seems quite probable though.
Yeah, this post was put out right after that Konosuba Megaman-esque PC game extra was announced right? That really inflated the projection.
Odd to see Gabriel Dropout listed as a likely overestimate. It seems to be doing pretty decent for a ~4k seller at HMV (#12 at this moment) and is right behind Tanya and Konosuba S2 on Rakuten in the 200s and at least sometimes ranking on Animate and Gamers, which not a lot of other shows this season can claim. I guess what I mean is that it’s doing way better at other web storefronts than Demi-chan so I can see Gabriel Dropout hitting its estimate easier than I could see Demi-chan. Especially since it’s not like Gabriel Dropout has benefited from its higher-than-normal price point. It hasn’t even cracked the top 100 so I have a hard time seeing its points getting any boost.
Any benefit would be relative. If Gabdro were cheaper, maybe it’d be ranking in the 300s or 400s rather than the 200s. There’s not a massive point difference between, like, 250 and 350 but it does add up over time and we’re talking about a pretty niche show as is. 5k would be considered a really good performance.
But we don’t have a ton of examples of shows in this price range to do any analysis on, and there’s a bunch of other factors that could throw any such analysis off. I’m mostly just playing it safe there, because if it *is* off, it could in theory be off pretty badly. It really comes down to how it’s doing at other shops, which is tricky to measure at best.
Well if konosuba can manage another 10k season seller that would still be very impressive cuz i bet nobody thought it would sell so much when 1st season came out and doing the same or close on the sequel is darn nice.
Cuz usualy we always see atleast 30% drop with sequels or more its really rare that a sequel would be able to sell equaly as the 1st season.
Anyway lookin forward to all this 1st vols and too see if we will get some 10k sellers in winter season :)