Stalker estimates are as of time of posting. Ordered by Stalker estimate, not by how I think they’ll actually sell.

Fate/Stay Night Unlimited Blade Works
Stalker estimate: n/a
Rough guess: ?!?
Comment: Impossible to read thanks to the Amazon API problem (we have no estimate for the edition that’s pulling in most of the sales) but matching F/Z’s 50k looks unlikely. It’ll still be a huge hit, but on a different level. It should still be the second best selling show of the year with little to no effort. Right now #2 is 25k for Haikyuu, which still has a few volumes to go and will end up a bit lower than that. Behind that are Free! ES and SAO II hovering around 20k. Since 25k still seems like a drop-dead worst-case guess for UBW, I can’t see if falling below Haikyuu. Right now the Amazon edition as a 10k estimate and I assume the non-Amazon will be about double that so maybe 30k? Could vary depending on how much comes from outside Amazon tho!

Gundam G no Reconquista
Stalker estimate: 18,716
Rough guess: 12-15k? v1, 8-12k? average
Comment: It’s gotten no traction lately and with only 2.5 weeks until release, has only blipped into the top 100 for brief moments over the past 60 days. Gundam doesn’t seem to be a storefront heavy franchise either, so I’m expecting significant overestimation. And yet, probably still #2 of the season.

Amagi Brilliant Park
Stalker estimate: 10,076
Rough guess: 6k v1, 5k average
Comment: Like G Reco, its momentum has ground to a halt. It’s staying in the top 200 but has been a stranger to the top 100 for most of the past month. Storefront ranking is good at HMV (but below Yuyuyu and Shirobako), okay at Softmap, and gets a “congrats you showed up” award at Gamers and Animate but little more. DMM and Rakuten rankings always swing wildly so it’s hard to gauge those.
Of course, this is a great example of how Stalker skews expectations. it only seems low because of the inflated predictions due to Amazon’s exclusive artbox. A 5k seller (if that is how it does) for a not particularly popular light novel’s adaptation is perfectly “okay”, especially since the novel got a bit of a boost (better than anything else this season but that’s not saying much!).

Yowamushi Pedal Grande Road
Stalker estimate: 8,462
Rough guess: 8-15k? v1, 5-9k?? average [SERIOUSLY I HAVE NO IDEA]
Comment: I didn’t realize how high the estimate was until just now! Partly that’s because it comes out in January but given how well this is ranking at Animate, well, uh… shit I have no clue what to expect now. This could be one of those series that explodes in popularity between seasons if these numbers are at all real! v1-2 come with event tickets, of course, which could make a big difference (the live event disc has sold something like 10k, which is very high for one of those). This is the dark horse to watch out for though, even more than Psycho-Pass 2.

Shingeki no Bahamut
Stalker estimate: 6,461
Rough guess: 3.5-4k v1, 3k average
Comment: More than anything else, even Amaburi, Bahamut’s Stalker estimate is likely to be a total lie. It is currently ranked nowhere outside of Amazon, and even at Amazon its median rank is down to 228 and it’s been struggling to stay in the top 500 lately. I wasn’t even going to list it here, but I’m including list everything with an estimate over 4k.

Psycho-Pass 2
Stalker estimate: 6,191
Rough guess: 8-9k v1, 7k average
Comment: The one everyone forgets about because its Amazon ranking is consistently just outside the range we pay attention to. This is the best ranking show of the season at Animate though, and we know that they actually matter. I’m not expecting anything like a doubling of the estimate however, because a large chunk of the Stalker points come from the Amazon-exclusive editions. Do keep in mind v1 comes with an event ticket, though! Hence me low-balling the average a bit.

Gundam Build Fighters Try
Stalker estimate: 5,790
Rough guess: 6k v1, 6k average
Comment: First season estimate was pretty close. RE box was “overestimated” but only because there seemed to be some stock issues and it backfilled in a lot of sales in wk2-3.

Stalker estimate: 5,330
Rough guess: 7k v1, 6k average
Comment: One of the more stable releases, in terms of having no Amazon editions or major extras. Never did end up getting an event ticket – maybe in the last volume? DVDs make up enough that they have a decent shot at ranking, assuming some underestimation. Ranking solidly outside of Amazon.

Stalker estimate: 4,410
Rough guess: 6k v1, 5k average
Comment: It doesn’t have too much to show for a Stalker estimate and coming out Christmas week is going to screw a lot of v1s out of DVDs (I’ll have to check the >100 rankings that week!) but the trend has been gradually upward and the it’s one of the better ranking shows outside of Amazon. It has a shot at #3 of the season, depending on how it holds up over remaining discs. I’m 99% certain it’ll be underestimated at any rate.

Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de Aru
Stalker estimate: 4,022
Rough guess: 4-5k v1, 3.5-4k average
Comment: This comes out a week before the Christmas surge and has seen the best rankings of anything from Fall over the past week. It’s the only one to be in the top 50 lately too, even counting non-Amazon UBW. v1 has peaked inside the top 20 and v2 has hit the top 100 finally as well. I do think it’s too little too late to be anything more than “average” though, considering we’re looking at a 3,250 estimate on the non-Amazon BD and v2+ have a lot of ground to make up if it’s going to stay consistent. It does do very very well at HMV (#2 over the past week) and okay at Gamers and Softmap, but nothing at Animate. I’m just not yet convinced this late surge amounts to much. We’ve repeatedly seen “comebacks” that amount to little beyond “did less bad than expected”.

Grisaia just misses the cutoff at 3,990. I dunno how it’ll do but that’s with an event ticket, so.

Everything else is dead.

Really dead.

So fuckin’ dead.

RIP 3 of my 4 imports this season, but what else is new?

43 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Miscellaneous Fall Ramblings v2”

  1. Wade Wilson says:

    A good show is a good show regardless of sales right? R.I.P Trinity Seven ;~~;

    • something says:

      If poor or mediocre sales meant a show was bad, then Yama no Susume s2 would be bad, and fuck that, in no universe with any meaning can that possibly be the case.

  2. PP says:

    Yuuki Yuuna’s episode 9 boost right there, it was a really good episode and the series deserves it.
    Parasyte and Shigatsu dead? Parasyte is Madhouse so it’s kinda expected but I expected Shigatsu to do better, guess people are throwing all their money at Fate.
    Overall, good sales.
    Also, Trinity Seven sucks, but it’ll probably sell something thanks to all the fanservice.

    • something says:

      I’m clearly not doing my job very well if I’m still reading “fanservice = sales” comments on here. Oh well.

      KimiUso is one of those Amazon-version-only series, meaning it could be very heavily underestimated. It’s also one of the last Fall v1s to release, at Feb 25. The estimate is 3,471 so a heavy underestimation could result in good sales.

      Or potentially not. Nearly 3 months out is way too early to be guessing at sales.

      Parasyte still hasn’t even been solicited. Must be planning a boxset release for March/April.

      I wouldn’t take the “DEAD” bit in my post too literally (it was facetious… well, somewhat), at least for series releasing in late January or later. But certainly nothing beyond those I’ve listed in the post seems to be doing all that much in the way of preorders at Amazon. And anything with a sub-4k estimate and a December release is unlikely to sell much barring some big storefront boost.

  3. Hugh says:

    I don’t understand Japan’s taste. It’s not consistent in terms of genres.

    • something says:

      “Genre” is such a broad concept, so it’s not surprising. Two shows in the same overall genre can be wildly different experiences for a set of viewers.

    • Progeusz says:

      Japan cares about it far less then West. They’re able to appreciate anime from broad range of genres so the theme of the show isn’t deciding factor.

  4. yuyu says:

    Cross Ange did getting even ticket, but amazon still doesn’t update the detail in their website (include other bonus details).
    So i give the detail from Gamers

    Also why is the DVD for this show so expensive it is same price with BD.

  5. yuyu says:

    Or maybe Amazon doesn’t have event ticket and other bonus?

  6. Progeusz says:

    YuYuYu points and average were updated just now, it’s currently at 4,130 prediction. I love the boost it’s been getting recently. I think what changed the most isn’t quality (because it was top-notch since the very beginning) but it finally feels more stable, you get the feeling the show knows where it’s headed to. Previously one was left wondering what’s going to happen next and could never be sure if show might fall flat on its face next episode (there certainly were many possible occasions where it could have happened! Thankfully YuYuYu handled each hurdle splendidly). So now, when show is slowly nearing its end and buyers become more comfortable with its continuous quality, they finally decide to vote for it with their wallets. The LNs coming close to end certainly help as well after they were wonderfully tied-in with the anime in episode eight. What’s more, the release date is soon so the boost should be further strengthened by usual late surge of buyers. If next ep is also well received, anime might reach new peak. And considering its strong presence at HMV (all 6 volumes in top8) and decent at other stores we shouldn’t worry about possible overestimation. While I’m at that, with the recent boost vols 2-6 also rose up significantly and it doesn’t seem like they have any intention of falling down, not to mention going back to sub-#500 where they were two weeks ago. I’m overjoyed Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de aru is finally taking off and wish it the best luck.

    Shirobako and Cross Ange are also doing very well. I’m especially happy about the first one, this show definitely deserves the recognition. Gives a lot of insight about the industry and at the same time is great anime on its own. I want to adopt Ooi-chan.

    As I thought since beginning, F/SN is going to sell less than F/Z. Still, it would be nice if the drop wasn’t too harsh because I like it more. Shirou is great protagonist and his relationship with Archer in UBW is portrayed incredibly well. Saber is also much more interesting and we’re only getting to good parts.

    It feels really good to have your top4 ranking the highest at the moment (they’re also the only ones in top100).

  7. Rudy 2639 says:

    How dead is Log Horizon 2? Outside of Shirobako it’s the only show that I really care about this season.

  8. mk03 says:

    Poor Sora no Method. Also poor Chaika. At least NHK yen saves Log Horizon.

    • Gatmar says:

      Chaika second season already suffered because of the poor sales of the first so they had to cut a couple of episodes in order to save it. But at least aht one has a conclusion to the whole story. Not the best but not the worst it is still good.

      Log Horizon is one of the few anime series that don’t really rely on sales rather it is the ratings. Considering the first season’s rating were already good enough to warrant a second season almost instantly and the second one is doing well too so no problem. Except for s3 we need to wait awhile until Mamare wrights more material for them to adapt. maybe in a couple of years and we might get an ova or 2 to keep the interest flowing.

      Also regarding other series. Cross Ange is a bit of suprise to manage to remain stable, considering all the blunder the first few episodes caused. Personally i like it, i consider it one of those series that are so bad that they are good type of show. Be honest we all had that one Anime series like that.

      Glad to see Amagi Brilliant Park is doing well. It is the best new series to have aired in the fall season.

      • something says:

        Amagi is doing “okay” I’d say. It started very strong, but nothing has helped its ranking over the past, I dunno, 5-6 episodes. it doesn’t drop too low (usually better than 200)… but it doesn’t get into the top 100 either. It seems like people made up their minds early, especially for the Amazon artbox, and then it picked up very few additional fans. More than most shows, granted, but most shows are just kinda dead.

        Considering the latest episode (which I haven’t seen yet but which seems to have been a significant one) can’t even get v1 into the top 100 (currently down around 200!) with just two weeks before release I have a feeling its momentum loss a month or so ago is permanent.

        A shame because it’s really, really damn good at comedy, but comedy isn’t a big seller usually. At least there seems to be no chance of it doing badly, just kinda “sorta above average” I guess.

        • Gatmar says:

          True but the real Tragedy is what happened with Chaika, Real lack of sales caused it quite the bad luck, Dont get me wrong it ended quite well despite what everything happened, but it is a real shame caused it could have turned out so much more if just got a bit higher sales. Still getting it when it is released in the west. Still one of my top 5 series of the year :)

          • something says:

            Kadokawa doing 10 episode adaptations is not uncommon, unfortunately. But in Chaika’s case, it does feel like the second season was originally planned for 12 and then cut back between seasons, at least by how it was paced, yes.

            I’ll talk more about it in the next viewing update post, but Chaika 1-9 were exceptionally well paced. Very exciting, superbly executed, just top tier stuff overall. Episode 10 very, very much feels like it was intended to be 2-3 episodes.

            I’m a little torn on complaining about it being “rushed”, because I would not have changed anything about episodes 1-9, personally. I simply can’t find a full episode’s worth of material to cut anywhere, or even half of one. And as far as rushed endings go, this one was better than most in the sense that none of the individual things that happened were bad or nonsensical or seemed wrong. I just wish many of those individual scenes could have played out over much more time! Especially the epilogue and the bit with Niva.

            I guess in the end, if I have to blame anyone it’s Kadokawa for pioneering this ten episode bullshit. Keep in mind they do this with shows significantly more successful than Chaika too, like Prisma Illya. But yes, it certainly doesn’t help that such an exceptional show as Chaika got such a total lack of support from anime fandom. What else is new, though? ;_;

            (This all puts me in a weird position, because shows like Sorameso and Yuyuyu are poised to end very strongly, which if so would leave me inclined to rank them ahead of Chaika. But comparing episodes 1-9 of Chaika to 1-9 of Yuyuyu is a no-brainer win for Chaika in my opinion. And vs Sorameso, it’s at minimum a tie with maybe slight edge to Chaika. Ahhh endings, why are you so disproportionately important?)

            • Gatmar says:

              They are important because they are suppose to tie up all the loose ends and make the story concluded. Yeah i think this was really suppose to be a 3 episode final but instead got 1 which is a shame but hey there are other series which got a worse treatment, especially those with massive cliff hangers but this one ended on a better note. So it is still worth importing even just to give a bit of help. Bones while may have few hiccups is known to produce some of the best Anime series. Especially of the higher rate of them having conclusions weather be it original ending or proper adapted ones for example: g RahXephon, Wolf’s Rain, Scrapped Princess, Eureka Seven, Angelic Layer,Soul Eater, Ouran High School Host Club and two adaptions of the Fullmetal Alchemist, Gosick as well as Space Dandy and this one .

              • something says:

                Still twitching in anticipation of the Sutepri BD box, I haven’t watched that series in years and years. I’m going to be less than happy if I don’t get it until a few days after the 26th due to Amazon holding for later items… I really want to rewatch that over the holidays.

  9. Progeusz says:

    Another update for YuYuYu – 4,344 prediction now. It finally broke into top15. I wonder how will next two episodes affect it. It might not be able to get wk2 due to always ridiculous Christmas thresholds but I hope we’ll be able to get wk3 or wk4 data which will fill out the blank. It’s also out of stock in several stores which might delay some of the sales – On the other hand we might not get the data of further weeks and v1 will have the lowest sales out of all volumes. Unpredictable!

    • something says:

      It’s definitely got some very bad timing! The only upside of its release timing is DVDs might have a 0.001% chance of ranking instead of 0.000001%, but it’s really going to need to rely on the BD 100 keeping thresholds low enough for wk2 or wk3 to rank. Could get screwed out of quite a lot of reported sales. Would almost be best for nothing to restock until wk3, then get it all in at once there!

      • Progeusz says:

        Aaaand, it finally happened! Single digit!
        **9位/**9位 ★ (**3,542 pt) [*,141予約] 14/12/17 結城友奈は勇者である 1 [Blu-ray]
        Incredible! For a show which a month ago wasn’t even sure if it would sell 2k! Too bad the chance of wk2 is basically non-existent. I know it sounds wrong but just like you I’m almost silently hoping for stock problems so we would be more likely to get further data later. And good point about DVD sales. Well, at least one of following vols’ DVD should rank so it won’t affect average that much. Tail of v1 is main problem, hopefully it will end well.

        • something says:

          And now #6, even ahead of Origin, highest ranked anime at the moment – and in mid-December at that.

          I do wish there were something good to measure it against in the daily rankings tomorrow. No good v2s or v3s of stuff with predictable sales. Just a bunch of new stuff that we’re just as in the dark about, or ongoing stuff that is expected to sell much less (AnR, Akame) or much more (Free, Haikyuu) than it.

          It’ll be a black box until next Tuesday! Although if it’s far ahead of PP2 and the Gintama box, that should be a really good sign. If it’s behind PP2 on pre-sale that’s pretty ugly, since PP2 isn’t expected to get most of its sales until release day and later.

          • Progeusz says:

            HMV: “usually instock within 2-3 days”. Rank? Even better, v2 rose to #2 pushing EFP to #3.
            >Usually ships within 1 to 3 weeks
            Anybody cares? Nope. It’s ordered more than ever before. It’s been sitting at #5 for last 9 hours.
            I fail to comprehend what’s going on but it makes me happy. Perhaps it finally went viral. Please be able to rank despite high thresholds! And most importantly, next two episodes, please be as good as previous ten!

            • something says:

              On the other hand…

              **4 Free!-Eternal Summer- 4
              **6 ハイキュー!! 6
              **8 銀魂 Blu-ray BOX シーズン其ノ壱
              **9 PSYCHO-PASS 2 1
              *10 蟲師 続章 3
              *11 結城友奈は勇者である 1
              *12 弱虫ペダル Re:RIDE

              Well *that’s* not a very promising start. It really makes you wonder if Amazon was unable to fulfill a lot of preorders, or if the high ranking really is as much of a lie as one might have feared.

              The rest of the week should be interesting… Mushishi could be performing higher than is real due to aniplex+ shipping early, Yuyuyu has packaging issues (just look at the weird width/height ratio, must be using non-standard packaging) and Pony Canyon was totally unprepared for this late surge, it’s just messy all over the place!

              • something says:

                NSFW site but good shots of how unorthodox the packaging is for Yuyuyu v1: (thanks to ultimatemegax for the heads up)

                This is not packaging you’re going to be able to order a larger print run of on very short notice. They probably printed most copies weeks or a month or more ago, and certainly did not anticipate the huge upward swing in orders over the past two weeks and won’t be able to print more this week.

                It’s gonna be a pretty long time before we get a good sense of how the show is really selling, I fear. Fingers crossed that the monthly ranking thresholds won’t be too high to fill in the gaps.

                • hpulley says:

                  It really is fun, unique packaging! It looks bigger than it is because it’s square and inside it unfolds with Yuna holding out the Bluray! And it folds up into a pyramid as well. Certainly not your standard Bluray or Digipak, not sure if special tooling was required. Very glad I got my preorder in and as always, fun to be watching it on release day. Amazing visuals on the Bluray version, really high resolution! It includes the original 1 hour broadcast version in edition to the individual episodes. The PC game so far at least is just a linear VN but it is cute to hear the girls more of course!

                  V2 is Togo cover! Gorgeous again and this time the bonus disc is a 12-song special character song CD. In 27th position on Stalker for Amazon, #2 at HMV behind V1, just a few preorders left at Neowing.

                  6 girls, 6 gorgeous covers and fun unfolding versions. Can’t wait to get the rest.

              • something says:

                *** *11 *15 *** *** *** *** | — | 結城友奈は勇者である 1

                Yeah… don’t expect amazing first week sales. Check back in by mid-January, folks! Or wait for Vol. 2, by which time Pony will hopefully be back on track and printing anywhere near enough. This could be another Mouretsu with v1wk1 selling half what the other vols do.

  10. Primadog says:

    Since overall sales are higher during this holiday season, wouldn’t that tend to depress rankings in general and lead to STALKER underestimating sales? That makes sense in my head, but has that bear out historically?

    • Stalker’s built to estimate w1 sales, iirc. If it doesn’t make predictions about the second week, then thresholds shouldn’t matter to it.

      • something says:

        I believe he means “won’t other non-anime stuff rank higher on Amazon during this season, resulting in lower Amazon ranks for anime and thus lower Stalker predictions”?

        Which I guess is possible, but I’m not sure if it would happen to the extent needed to suppress a whole season’s worth of sales to any significant degree.

        It would be hard to tell for sure because even if you tried to crunch the over/underestimation numbers from Stalker across various Fall seasons, you’d be comparing apples to oranges considering how Stalker’s formula has changed repeatedly over time.

        • prima says:

          “listen to what I mean, not what I said.” You worded my hypothesis a lot better than I did.

          If this holiday effect exists, it will likely impact YuYuYu’s vol.2 more than vol.1, and maybe it will end up with more leg than we expected.

          • something says:

            Yuyuyu v2 should end up with at least the same estimation as v1 at the current rate, since it’ll have a lot more time to rank well than v1 did. I don’t think it’ll stay at its current ~50 ranking for the entire coming month, but the estimate should still end up north of 4k compared to v1’s 3.8k (ignoring DVDs).

            Of course this will just mean it’ll be less underestimated than v1, not that it’ll sell more. So I think any effect on v2 is minimal, but it’d be next to impossible to identify a cause/effect link either way.

  11. Fleet says:

    Is there any reason that the the Amazon Exclusive UBW lost about half of its points today? Yesterday it was a little over 8K and today it is down to 4.9K. It seems like a strange drop out of nowhere.

    • something says:

      Uhhhhh, that is certainly weird. I don’t see a similar adjustment for other high price boxes (like Hyouka), so maybe a glitch?

      Edit: Ah here’s the comments from the thread:
      70 :鯖管 ★:2014/12/17(水) 02:00:58 ID:???

      71 :鯖管 ★:2014/12/17(水) 02:24:56 ID:???

      Unfortunately I don’t get the exact gist but machine translation says:

      70: mackerel tube ★: 2014/12/17 (Wed) 02:00:58 ID: ???
      Since the cumulative point calculations Nothing with a hand unknown place why the pt of FateUBW has decreased is now
      Just the funny because too low in the high-ticket items correction is certainly

      71: mackerel tube ★: 2014/12/17 (Wed) 02:24:56 ID: ???
      It was not separately funny Once you have verified
      Average ranking I was further adapted to modify down the high ticket items correction of fall and the cumulative point to a certain extent
      Since the rank is high’s and low because the number is quite different from that deal with the BOX (big ticket items) in the left this remains

      So I guess the admin made a change to the formula that had a bigger change than expected? Something that intends to adjust for things that rank very high early on and then much lower later, I take it.

      • Fleet says:

        The strange, strange situation that surrounds UBW continues I suppose. I would like to see it do well but I have thrown out any expectations I have had up to this point, so many factors at play that could change things.

        • plk says:

          The non-Amazon version has stayed consistently around both Tsukimonogatari versions since it the beginning, I think it’s very safe to say it should have about the same number of points.

          I think the Amazon version will sell about 10-15k and the other one about 30k.

          • something says:

            Keep in mind that high-priced items like the UBW box only get about 1/2 to 1/3 as many points as regularly priced discs. This is because 1) expensive items usually get a disproportionately high percentage of sales on Amazon due to the Amazon discount being more enticing and 2) price is factored into Amazon’s rankings, so a ¥7000 item ranking #50 and a ¥40000 item ranking #50 are not selling the same number of units; the latter is selling less. Therefore, Stalkre has to give them less points to compensate, and generally this has led to much more accurate estimations than giving them full points did. So if it’s been the same as Tsuki, that would mean only about 9k points so far for the non-Amazon version, very very roughly speaking, not 21k like Tsuki.

            (You can see an example by looking at the non-Amazon version and noting the difference between the two estimates; 7.4k with the high price penalty would be 20.1k without it.)

            But there are so many complications with UBW’s solicitation (for example it may be more storefront-heavy than your typical expensive BD box for various reasons) that making any guesses at all is super awkward.

          • Fleet says:

            From what something has said about the high price penalty, I am going to guess it pulls around 20k total. The rough math on how the non-Amazon version is doing compared to Tsukimonogatari factoring in the penalty plus the prediction for the Amazon exclusive version puts it close to that, but I am hopeful that the other factors can pull it up. If it doesn’t do any better than that then it is really disappointing though for such a popular franchise ):

            • something says:

              It’s doing well at other shops, so given that at the moment it’s currently #127/#268 on Amazon it’s almost certainly going to do better than the Amazon ranking implies. I won’t call that “underestimated” because we don’t have an estimate, so…

              But it’s definitely nowhere near F/Z part 1’s Amazon performance. With basically the same solicitation and release dates that did:
              14 – Average
              1 – Best
              38 – Worst
              14 – Median

              So it never ranked worse than 38th and had a median of 14, both a lot better than UBW’s performance even if you were to account for the version split (which would put it at, I dunno… worst 100, median 40-50? impossible to say for sure).

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