March Releases, #1
March Releases, #2

I’d put off doing this for April because those releases were too far out, but now everything from April is within 40 days so let’s do the first version of this.

There are two late releases for Winter, coming out in May and June respectively, which I’m not including. But neither is likely to even reach 2k anyway:
• Tonari no Seki-kun
• Robot Girls Z

Current DVD Current BD Current Total Predicted DVD Predicted BD Predicted Total Days Left Title Event Ticket / OVA
474 460 934 710 618 1,328 15 Z/X Ignition
164 744 908 196 874 1,070 15 Wizard Barristers
3,805 3,591 7,396 4,930 4,823 9,753 22 Hoozuki no Reitetsu (A ver.) Event
859 763 1,622 1,256 1,010 2,266 22 Hoozuki no Reitetsu (B ver.) Event
4,664 4,354 9,018 6,186 5,833 12,019 22 Hoozuki no Reitetsu (Combined) Event
467 1,676 2,143 671 2,174 2,845 22 Nourin Event
238 238 329 329 31 Mahou Sensou Event
315 2,052 2,367 711 4,133 4,844 36 Tesagure! Bukatsumono Encore
250 146 396 342 205 547 36 Nobunagun
364 576 940 574 836 1,410 38 Nobunaga the Fool Event
289 947 1,236 445 1,484 1,929 38 Space Dandy Event
1,045 510 1,555 1,530 695 2,225 38 Hamatora Event

Notes
1. Predicted DVD numbers in red are below 600, and are less likely to rank at all. Take that into consideration when looking at their Predicted Total numbers and lower expectations accordingly.
2. If a field is blank, the show isn’t coming out in that format.
3. The exception to #2 is Mahou Sensou, which for some reason does not appear to be listed with a BD version on Amazon, unless it’s under some alternate title. Stalker doesn’t list it either, hence no estimate. It wouldn’t be more than like ~300 anyway.

I repeat my warning from last time, the above numbers are purely Stalker’s estimates. Some of these will be underestimated. Some could be overestimated. Don’t stress too much over exact numbers.

Yeeeeeah, so if you thought March looked like a joke, April is even worse. If not for Hoozuki getting delayed to April it would just be a wasteland. Hoozuki has gotten stronger, to the point where all four versions (as categorized by Stalker) are almost guaranteed to rank. And when you factor in that it should be one of the most storefront heavy titles thanks to its performance at Animate, a 15k v1 looks really likely. Even a modest event ticket dropoff could leave it with a 10k average. I guess it’s by far our best shot! Or more like only shot.

Besides Hoozuki, none of the above titles have a storefront presence worth mentioning, so that won’t help either.

Tesagure’s ranking may be inflated at the moment, it’s only just started dropping back down after peaking for a week and a half, so with it being 36 days out the recent strong ranking pushes the final estimate up quite a bit.

_____

As always, when dealing with anything related to Stalker, keep the many caveats in the Sales FAQ (section 4) in mind. Don’t use the numbers above unless you know what they mean and where they’re problematic! (Else, I reserve the right to kick you in the kidneys.)

6 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Current Stalker Data (April releases only)”

  1. Avatar Se7en Sabers says:

    Hi and thanks for your predictions as always :)

    It looks terrible, even with the presence of an even ticket (what would have it been without it…?)

    Guess people are waiting for the upcoming April shows rather than the Winter ones.

  2. Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

    Thanks for the predictions list as always.

    Hoozuki has gotten stronger. Volume 2 is predicted to do ~7k. I hope with a storefront effect it comes to 10k, though I might be stretching things out too much.

    • something something says:

      One large factor in Hoozuki’s jump is simply that it was delayed – since predictions are performance last 7 days * days remaining, suddenly increasing the latter by a month shortly before it was supposed to go on sale can really change things.

      I’m always curious about how this does or could affect things. I mean, it was supposed to be on sale already. The prediction would be done. Suddenly the prediction has another month, and is thus higher. So what will the effect be? Sales are equivalently higher just because it was delayed? But there has to be some trade-off surely, so perhaps week 2+ sales will be lower than they would have been? Or Stalker’s estimate will be less underestimated than it would have been? Surely most people have made up their mind by now, and the act of delaying itself can’t cause a rise in overall sales, or is very unlikely to anyway.

      Just one of those things you start to think about when you look at these numbers.

      (Though yes v2 is looking solid as well, even if it’s a ways below vol 1 it’s still high enough to beat most or maybe even all v1s of other shows this Winter)

      • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

        I hadn’t really thought of that before. I was wondering why it had gotten so high all of a sudden but then when I realized that it had been delayed, that made it more puzzling when I thought of now.

        I think it’s week 2+ sales will be a lot lower. Because, really, like you said, there has to be some trade-off.

  3. Avatar patty says:

    Oh Hamatora, your demise is near! Man, that is one cheap ass show!

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