We’re almost halfway into the season now, so let’s review Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Already Released

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
5,616 7,797 2017/11/29 21 2017/09/08 95 THE IDOLM@STER Cinderella Girls Gekijou 2nd Season
1,995 2,568 5,278 2017/11/29 21 2017/03/10 8 Mahoutsukai no Yome
637 918 2017/12/02 24 2017/08/23 8 Dream Festival! R
1,199 2,562 2017/12/13 35 2017/10/09 43 Himouto! Umaru-chan R
2,315 4,501 2017/12/13 35 2017/10/08 80 Kekkai Sensen & Beyond
83 247 2017/12/20 42 2017/10/05 3 Urahara
1,672 3,327 5,627 2017/12/20 42 2017/10/07 56 Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de Aru Season 2
132 245 2017/12/20 42 2017/10/07 4 Ousama Game The Animation
44 135 2017/12/20 42 2017/10/12 2 Sengoku Night Blood
626 1,286 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/04 19 Code:Realize: Sousei no Himegimi
305 681 1,535 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/07 10 Dies Irae
380 1,339 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/13 16 Just Because!
12,178 20,740 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/10 451 Love Live! Sunshine!! 2nd Season
3,475 7,728 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/03 102 Osomatsu-san Season 2
532 1,131 2017/12/22 44 2017/09/22 12 Konohana Kitan
69 165 613 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/06 2 Two Car
875 1,769 3,521 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/01 24 Kino no Tabi: The Beautiful World (2017)
368 786 2017/12/22 44 2017/10/06 12 Boku no Kanojo ga Majimesugiru Sho-bitch na Ken
149 294 711 2017/12/25 47 2017/09/02 2 Animegataris
683 1,592 2017/12/27 49 2017/10/10 25 Wake Up, Girls! Shin Shou
3,645 9,205 2017/12/27 49 2017/10/07 122 THE iDOLM@STER SideM
664 1,719 2017/12/27 49 2017/09/29 17 Blend S
482 1,142 2017/12/27 49 2017/10/04 15 Juuni Taisen
824 1,724 4,625 2018/01/17 70 2017/09/07 14 Hoozuki no Reitetsu 2nd Season
461 1,442 2,452 2018/01/24 77 2017/09/29 12 3-gatsu no Lion 2nd Season
113 359 2018/01/24 77 2017/10/04 3 Osake wa Fuufu ni Natte kara
457 1,875 3,270 2018/01/24 77 2017/10/06 15 Shoujo Shuumatsu Ryokou
2,174 5,491 2018/01/24 77 2017/10/02 62 Gintama. Porori-hen
35 135 588 2018/01/24 77 2017/10/13 1 Inuyashiki
113 359 2018/01/24 77 2017/10/05 4 Osake wa Fuufu ni Natte kara
97 238 908 2018/01/26 79 2017/09/12 2 Kujira no Kora wa Sajou ni Utau
256 932 2,289 2018/01/26 79 2017/09/20 5 Imouto sae Ireba Ii.
27 78 2018/02/23 107 2017/10/07 1 Love Kome: We Love Rice 2nd Season
29 105 504 2018/02/28 112 2017/10/06 1 Dynamic Chord
660 1,117 1,689 2017/12/08 30 2017/08/02 7 Net-juu no Susume

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet

Points so far Estimate Unpenalized Est Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
2018/01/31 84 2017/11/07 UQ Holder

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of November 06, 3AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of November 06, 3AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of November 06, 3AM JST for high price items, with penalty removed
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title

Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Penalized vs non-penalized estimated
I’ve gone over this countless times so you probably already know the drill, but you see two estimates for some shows because Stalker tracks two numbers for “high price” items, i.e. anything with an MSRP over ¥10,000. The first number is the estimate with a heavy penalty applied, the second estimate is with no penalty applied at all. The rationale for this is that more expensive items have inflated rankings on Amazon, both due to MSRP potentially factoring into Amazon’s rankings and also the fact that the more expensive an item is, the more likely buyers will use Amazon, as they tend to have the highest discount. There’s no way to know which estimate the Oricon number will be closer to, but it’s usually in the bottom half of the estimated range, and virtually always above the minimum estimate. Of course this varies depending on how a title is ranking outside of Amazon. Because the penalized estimate is the one Stalker makes most visible, I always use it as the default. But it’s worth making the unpenalized estimate more visible to reduce confusion.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
This season is being incredibly cruel to sequels in a year that’s already been cruel to them, which makes guessing at the rankings even more difficult.
• LLS2 is the obvious #1, though unless the Stalker estimate is unusually low, even it may be in for a sizable drop. While it has !six! concert event tickets lined up, I think the way it’s spread 3 events over 6 volumes means the tickets aren’t quite as individually valuable as some of the biggest tickets of previous season.
• After that, there’s no clear #2. Osomatsu-san s2 should be the obvious #2, but since it might be on track for a Shingeki-level collapse, who knows. I don’t think it’ll be quite that bad, especially since the release has been so slow to announce new details. Just today we learned a few more things: confirmed 2 cour, short bonus eps in v2 and v4, and v5-8 were solicited. That’s given it a bump. But it does not look like we’re going to get a huge event on the level of s1. v1-2 do have event tickets, I realized just today, but it seems like a fairly minor event, hence not much impact on the sales.
• SideM looks like it may perform around B-Project level, possibly a bit higher depending on how the event ticket goes. That wouldn’t be a massive smash hit but would make it the second best selling male idol show (at least until Idolish7 hits). And I think that’d be an unqualified success, considering there was no reason to expect it to sell at 30k Animas/Deremas levels. And while I’m pretty cautious about ascribing sales to competition or the lack thereof, the instant #1-14 sweep Idolish7 just pulled on Animate today does, I think, make it clear what the bigger of the male idol franchises is!
• Cinderella Girls Gekijou isn’t getting the same kind of event as season one (which had the flagship yearly live), so it looks like it’ll have much more normal sales this time around. Remember that s1v1 sold over 40k! That is definitely not happening this time without an equivalent event. The average isn’t likely to be much more than 10k, which would still be amazing for a short.
• Yuyuyu might do okay compared to s1, but it’s hard to tell with the way half the show is a re-cut of the films and only the second half (which hasn’t started yet) is new material. Keep an eye on how it starts ranking once ep 7 airs. Note that Stalker is tracking both the Wasio Sumi and Yuusha chapters as separate v1s. I’m only reporting the Washio Sumi chapter here, as
• Mahoyome is, I think, the potential dark horse of the season. Not in a 20k sense, maybe not even 10k sense, but it’s had consistently “ok” Amazon rankings coupled with surprisingly impressive Animate rankings. By the way its points per day is screwy because it was solicited ludicrously early, way back in March.
• Needless to say, the shows I care about most (Konohana Kitan and Urahara) are Dead As Shit. Thus it always is, and always shall be.

Also, a quick note that Net-juu no Susume is staying in the Upcoming Releases table for now, since the BD box in December is where most of its sales will be, not these DVD singles. The estimate is DVD single v1 + BD Box. The first DVD barely ranked at 121 discs sold.

01. Love Live! Sunshine!! 2nd Season
02. Osomatsu-san Season 2
03. The iDOLM@STER SideM
04. THE IDOLM@STER Cinderella Girls Gekijou 2nd Season
05. Kekkai Sensen & Beyond
06. Mahoutsukai no Yome
07. Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de Aru Season 2
08. Gintama. Porori-hen
09. Hoozuki no Reitetsu 2nd Season
10. Kino no Tabi: The Beautiful World (2017)

Maybe I’m giving Osomatsu-san too much credit but I just can’t believe it’ll fall below 10k when all is said and done… but we’ll see. Not a single sequel coming out this season looks like it’s going to escape without at least a somewhat bad drop, for a variety of reasons. Yuyuyu might not, but it was a sub-10k series in the first place anyway.

13 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Fall 2017 thus far (2017-11-06)”

  1. Elio says:

    So essentially the potentially best-selling NEW title for Fall is MahoYome? Hmm, I could have sworn there’s another dark-horse title on par with that one in terms of rankings.

    • something something says:

      Yep only 4 of the top 15 by estimate right now aren’t sequels, spinoffs, or reboots. This is a super sequel heavy season at the top, even if most of them aren’t holding up well.

  2. Liver says:

    Well SideM’s seiyuu are newcomers while i7’s seiyuu are a bunch of popular seiyuu. Or maybe it’s because i7 has female self insert? Male idols anime with female MC has better sales than all male cast ones (utapri, b-project sold better than tsukiuta, starmyu etc, please correct me if I’m wrong though). I wonder if A3 or Ansuta will have female MC too, hmmm.

    And so happy with LLSS2, this season is full Slice of Life episodes, definitely better than the S1. Hope it will sells better than the S1 just like LLS2

    • ried says:

      Enstars has a female MC in-game, and IIRC one interview mentioned that they’ll properly give her a character design for the anime. Don’t know enough about A3 to say about that one.

  3. AnimePhoenix says:

    The sequel drops don’t faze me anymore because I should just be glad that whatever sells actually sells something. I wonder how much streaming numbers reflect popularity nowadays.

    At least three articles I’ve read have said that streaming in China counts for a lot. What about the Japanese numbers, I wonder? Like dTV or Gyao(sp?)? How are they doing for Japan? Will there be a slight change in what kind of shows get made as streaming becomes more and more popular?

    • something something says:

      I haven’t seen any particularly detailed numbers on JP steaming. But according to the 2016 AJA report (covering 2015), the “Internet Distribution” category (domestic, so excluding international) which they somewhat cryptically describe as “domestic online animation revenue” has gone as follows since 2010:

      2010: ¥14.9bn
      2011: ¥16.0bn (+7.4%)
      2012: ¥27.2bn (+70.0%)
      2013: ¥34.0bn (+25.0%)
      2014: ¥40.8bn (+20.0%)
      2015: ¥43.7bn (+7.1%)

      So it’s definitely growing, though even in 2015 it was still less than half the revenue of physical discs (which have gone 108bn → 106bn → 105bn → 115bn → 102bn → 92bn since 2010).

      The 2017 report (covering 2016) is out but AJA hasn’t put the free summary version on their site yet, to my knowledge. And the huge huge caveat with AJA is always that it looks at the whole animation industry, not just the late night portion of the industry.

      AJA does not break down international revenue into sub-categories, so we don’t know how much is streaming. But it does focus on China when explaining the huge huge increase in the international category (from 20.0% of all revenue in 2014 to 31.9% of all revenues in 2015). It also mentions concerns that the current Chinese “shopping spree” could be a bubble, and seems particularly worried about the effects on the industry should that bubble pop. So yeah, China is a big deal. But it does not say what percentage of that Chinese shopping spree is in the form of streaming vs other licensing.

  4. MK says:

    It’s hardly a disaster on those estimates, but I would like to see MahoYome do better. The latest ep was the best yet imo and the manga did take a while to get going so maybe this one’ll be a “late bloomer” so to speak? Similar sentiments go for Girls’ Last Tour.

    Other than that every non-sequel looks either very mediocre or DOA. Inuyashiki stands out for me at the bottom of the list. And RIP especially Children of the Wales, one of the more overlooked titles this season in my view.

    • something something says:

      Since Mahoyome is two cour, it definitely has the potential for long-ish legs, as long as it can retain viewers past the half-way point once the discs start coming out.

  5. Tuna says:

    Tsukipro isnt on the list I think.

    Good for SideM at least coming in 2nd to UtaPri, though I kind of expected a bit more from the anime. In my opinion, I did enjoy i7 ep 1 & 2 way more than SideM ep 1 – 2 (but Episode Jupiter was awesome, anime could have done better if it was just a Jupiter focused anime with others).

    Also TRIGGER for i7 best male idol group for me since STARISH. Looking forward to see where i7 falls on the disc sales scale.

    I guess we shouldnt expect BC to do high numbers since it seemed like it was a very costly release routine, and I think buyers of shonen jump properties are just now the niche these days (especially with how Boruto and Shippuden seem to be selling on the other charts).

    • something something says:

      Tsukipro is Animate-exclusive, so Stalker has no estimate for it.

      And yeah, no reason to expect any disc sales for Black Clover. …Actually, I shouldn’t even be including it in these lists. I really need to move it over to the long-running kids’ series section when it comes out.

  6. Smudy says:

    I was wondering why Houseki no Kuni (Land of the Lustrous) isn’t on the list, maybe it can’t estimated yet like Black Clover for example?

    • something something says:

      CGI animation does not meet the criteria for “anime” used on this site, and I do not and never will track or report on CGI shows.

      (And before anyone inquires or objects, this isn’t up for debate. The discussion was had and decision reached years ago, and will not change. Any further posts on the topic will be deleted.)

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