With sales of the first Summer title being reported next week, this is as good a time as any to post a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Already Released

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
7,690 7,690 2017/07/26 -5 2017/05/02 87 Katsugeki/Touken Ranbu

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
3,109 6,736 2017/09/27 58 2017/07/03 120 Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ
1,565 3,522 2017/09/27 58 2017/06/19 39 New Game!!
1,495 2,110 2017/08/23 23 2017/06/01 26 Jigoku Shoujo: Yoi no Togi
1,445 2,439 2017/08/23 23 2017/06/02 25 Saiyuuki Reload Blast
794 2,138 2017/09/27 58 2017/06/23 22 Hajimete no Gal
579 1,613 2017/09/22 53 2017/07/04 23 Isekai Shokudou
559 1,489 2017/10/27 88 2017/06/14 12 Knight's & Magic *
532 1,803 2017/10/03 64 2017/06/25 16 Tenshi no 3P!
487 2,117 2017/10/25 86 2017/07/07 22 Made in Abyss *
439 1,841 2017/09/27 58 2017/07/03 17 Princess Principal
338 1,808 2017/11/24 116 2017/07/05 14 Teekyuu season 9
327 1,222 2017/10/13 74 2017/07/02 12 Kakegurui
323 1,184 2017/09/22 53 2017/07/09 16 Hitorijime My Hero
304 839 2017/09/29 60 2017/06/30 10 Netsuzou Trap
261 827 2017/10/04 65 2017/06/26 8 Youkoso Jitsuryoku Shijou Shugi no Kyoushitsu e
257 1,269 2017/10/25 86 2017/07/12 15 Mahoujin Guru Guru
239 886 2017/09/20 51 2017/07/12 14 Isekai wa Smartphone to Tomo ni.
220 495 2017/09/27 58 2017/07/03 8 Battle Girl High School *
175 417 2017/09/13 44 2017/06/26 5 Nana Maru San Batsu
167 695 2017/11/24 116 2017/06/22 5 Hina Logi: From Luck & Logic
157 630 2017/10/11 72 2017/07/14 10 Action Heroine Cheer Fruits
153 461 2017/09/20 51 2017/07/03 6 Keppeki Danshi! Aoyama-kun
149 900 2017/09/28 59 2017/07/20 17 Gamers
131 568 2017/10/04 65 2017/07/18 12 Koi to Uso *
127 812 2017/11/29 121 2017/07/09 6 Ballroom e Youkoso
97 293 2017/09/27 58 2017/07/07 4 Vatican Kiseki Chousakan *
80 299 2017/09/29 60 2017/07/02 3 Centaur no Nayami
50 187 2017/09/20 51 2017/07/07 2 Konbini Kareshi
42 148 2017/10/04 65 2017/07/08 2 18if
38 255 2017/10/27 88 2017/07/12 2 Clione no Akari
37 124 2017/09/29 60 2017/07/07 2 Jikan no Shihaisha
36 129 2017/10/25 86 2017/07/07 2 Shoukoku no Altair *

Solicited Too Recently, no estimate yet

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
19 2017/11/22 114 2017/07/27 10 Dive!! *
2017/12/27 149 2017/07/28 Fate/Apocrypha *

* These series fall under Stalker’s high price penalty, and will probably be underestimated more than they normally would. Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant.

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of July 30, 3AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of July 30, 3AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title

Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
There are three big sequels this season (Fate, Tourabu, Symphogear) so it seems safest to guess they’ll be at the top. Particularly because no new show has shown any signs of breaking out just yet. Made in Abyss has some latent potential, and should have plot twists going for it to drum up bursts in orders. So I’m putting it ahead of New Game, also in part because I’m really disappointed with how New Game is ranking thus far. Time for my usual pessimism to shine! I’m also gonna throw Saiyuuki in at #4 beause underestimating Animate is always dangerous. I may be overestimating it, but what the heck. Dive!! might be top 10 on account of being a one-shot box and it not exactly taking a lot to make the top 10 this season, but it’s too early to guess so I’m just leaving it out.

Note: For now I’m not including the Owarimonogatari 2 special, but I’d put it at #1-2 since it’ll presumably do the standard Monogatari ~25k.

There’s no way the below will be correct in the end, but no harm just throwing around blind guesses.

01. Fate/Apocrypha
02. Katsugeki! Touken Ranbu
03. Senki Zesshou Symphogear AXZ
04. Saiyuuki Reload
05. Made in Abyss
06. New Game!!
07. Knight’s & Magic
08. Jigoku Shoujo: Yoi no Togi
09. Hajimete no Gal
10. Tenshi no 3P!

My shows this season aren’t gonna do much. New Game will sell okay but disappointingly compared to s1. Isekai Shokudou will struggle to hit average. Centaur and Hinalogi are dead as dirt. The usual.

31 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Summer 2017 thus far”

  1. Tuna says:

    Well i guess the heavy ballroom prehype machine has failed to generate disc buying interest, people appeared to believe it would be the next hit in the alternative sports arena, I guess not.

    My top 3 dive, hitorijime my hero, and knight’s and magic all deserve better :( hopefully dive outperforms. Its so good.

    • Ayumi says:

      I think DIVE is flopping very hard in pre sales. (Granted, there’s months before it releases.)

      I dropped DIVE after episode 2. Does it get better?

      • something something says:

        It’s, uhhhh, not doing great. Late solicit, one-shot box, pretty much a recipe for ranking high at Amazon, at least initially. Instead it peaked at #635 and now is down at ~#19,000. Haven’t seen it crack Animate’s rankings either.

        So yeah there’s a long time until release but it’s already aired, I assume, 3-4 eps. Things aren’t looking very good.

        • Ayumi says:

          I have a question about “Kakegurui”. If the disc sales are around 2000 per volume. BUT the manga gets a small boost (which I’m seeing on Amazon). What’s the chance of it having a second season? I’m weirdly obsessed with that show this season and I really wanna see the “final battle” between the main character and another character but with only a few more episodes to go, I doubt it will cover up to that point. It would be a shame if they end in a cliffhanger and we never see the biggest scene of the show.

          • something something says:

            The committee is:
            Avex Pictures (video publisher)
            Klockworx (video rental)
            FuRyu (video-related, I’ve seen them publish and distro but Avex is listed as both for this one)
            81 Produce (seiyuu agency)
            Square Enix (print publisher)
            Dentsu (advertising)
            MAPPA (animation studio)
            Movic (merchandise)

            Square Enix is pretty low on the committee, so while I’m sure they’d be happy to see a manga boost, they didn’t invest a ton in the anime. If the anime’s main contribution were to be a bump in manga sales, other committee members might not want to pony up just for that and SE might not want to raise their investment since that’s risky and sequels don’t bump manga as much.

            Disc sales are going to be poor, easily a sub-2k average unless it gets a bump or is heavily underestimated. So Avex/FuRyu won’t make up much money that way.

            That pretty much leaves streaming revenue. If Netflix threw a lot of money at them that will help, but I don’t think it’ll do a lot for a sequel. Might just minimize losses for the first season. Netflix Japan has domestic rights (where they’re streaming it weekly normally unlike US Netflix) though, so maybe if it does really well for them there they’ll try to fund more and US rights will just come along with it as a matter of course. (Netflix and Amazon don’t get on committees for the shows they license, for whatever reason. They just buy rights.)

            Not sure what 81 Produce does. I’ve sometimes seen seiyuu schools/agencies on committees, and I guess they get involved with planning for live events?

            • Ayumi says:

              That makes a lot of sense. So I guess there’s still hope. Thanks for the explanation!

            • Klockworx is a rental company. They sell DVDs and such to rental shops.

              • something something says:

                …They are? I must be mixing them up with someone else then. I thought I remembered some kind of partnership among a few companies that was using the Klockworx name for doing licensing stuff. Any idea what I was thinking of?

                • aran says:

                  Could be Frontier Works?

                  • something something says:

                    Hm as far as I know they’re just a traditional publisher/distributor.

                    Maybe I’m thinking of something like Anime Consortium Japan or whatever but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t them I had in mind. I dunno.

    • derpinat0r says:

      yeah, i was hoping it would out do Haikyu in sales like it did with kuroko.

  2. AnimePhoenix says:

    I know someone says this every season and I honestly thought I wouldn’t say it but…I’m not impressed with this season. Altair, Dive, BahaSoul, Youkai Apartment and a couple of other shows this season were not what I thought they’d be. Altair was the biggest disappointment.

    Everyone was looking forward to Ballroom this season (by everyone I mean almost everyone lol) but then it sort of fizzled out in the West as well. I haven’t really formed an opinion on it yet. Just…it’s there.

    I’m glad Katsugeki is going to do decently because it’s one of the only shows I actually look forward to this season.That and Tsurezure Children is a joy. Vatican sort of went off the rails but might become unintentional comedy of the season lol.

    Looking at Stalker is so depressing these days. Aoyama-kun really reminds me of Sakamoto desu ga and I wish it would sell better but oh well.

  3. Yaoi-Senpai says:

    I hope Touken Ranbu sell more, that series really deserve more.

    I thought Hitorijime my hero (manga) will get boost but actually it didn’t with is so sad :( I wanted it to sell atleast more than 20k copies.

    • HighnessFudanshi says:

      In Amazon BL chart at least there some kind of boost. All the 6 volumes and some of special editions are in top100 BL

  4. atala says:

    Jeez those numbers are bad. It’s been a very fizzling summer season so far, and like others have mentioned, all the hype that was created around Ballroom seems to have died down since the thing aired. I too find myself quite disappointed with it tbh, but I thought it would catch some interest in Japan. It’s kinda sad considering it is a very polished production. It must quite hurt to see those sales estimates when they were expecting it to be the next Haikyu too. Does it have any Animate popularity to fall back on? Also do you think Animate will help Katsugeki get closer to Hanamaru’s numbers?

    • something something says:

      I haven’t seen Ballroom rank at Animate, no. As for Katsugeki, yeah it’ll be Animate biased like Hanamaru. Dunno by how much, but Hanamaru v1 was 140% underestimated so it sold 19k wk1 on a 7.9k estimate. That was an event ticket volume though. Katsugeki’s ticket is in v2.

  5. HighnessFudanshi says:

    Hitorijime my Hero is ranking at least three times a week in Animate site, so i guess it could be better than Stalker estimations. Not much better, but a little bit more.

  6. Ayumi says:

    I hope Hitorijime My Hero and Kakegurui sell better. Those are horrible sales and will probably not be enough to warrant a second season.

  7. Bob 616 says:

    Is there any information on Aho Girl?

    • something something says:

      Not solicited yet, and nothing on the official website, so I’m guessing at this point it has to be coming out as a box set.

  8. Flushme says:

    That’s some awfully low numbers for Symphogear AXZ. At this rate it won’t even beat G. I wonder what happened there.

    • something something says:

      The theme of this season thus far is “disappointing sequel sales”. That said, they’ve not announced an event ticket for AXZ yet, so its v1 numbers are currently somewhat meaningless.

      Still, I agree there’s no way it is anywhere near matching GX at the moment, and even G might be a stretch. Its big season on season increases were already an enormous anomaly though so this may be things just correcting back to normal. That doesn’t help the crappy feeling that comes with following disc sales this year though.

  9. yorgash says:

    I think you shouldn’t give Made in Abyss the credit you did. It won’t outdo New Game, that’s a given.
    It is one of the stupidest shows I’ve ever seen air, especially from sales perspective. Let’s be honest: who would actually want to buy it? It has no audience. At all. Stupid, fetishy and gory at points, featuring loli AND shota. The latter does have the effect for all otaku to cancel hypothetical preorders. The former is weird too – it kills its seinen potential. And the loli and at times slow pace kills it for the shounen audience. Probably those few people will buy it for its quality. A 2000 sales for production value like this is probably the worst flop to happen this season.

    • something something says:

      You can ask “who would want to buy it” but we can look at any given time and see it ranking ahead of most Summer shows. And we also know that releases subject to Stalker’s high price penalty are always underestimated, so it’ll definitely sell more than Stalker’s number. Where it ends up ranking depends entirely on how the twists and turns are received. If they’re poorly received, it’ll drop pretty hard. If the twists pull people in, it’ll rise quickly. My guess as to where it’ll rank is based on an optimistic guess that it’ll draw people in with its twists, and a pessimistic take on New Game – because it’s a personal rule of mine to be pessimistic about the sales of things I really enjoy. I find that optimism is never rewarded and I’m tired of being disappointed.

      It’s also useful to keep in mind that it doesn’t take a heck of a lot to rank “high” this season… disc sales are mediocre overall, and even ranking #5-6 doesn’t necessarily mean a show has *good* sales.

  10. Tiago says:

    Source material boost wise, the winner so far is classroom of the elite. It’s boosting the light novel a lot.

  11. Charlotte says:

    So, why aren’t you watching Princess Principal?

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