With sales of the first and biggest Spring title being reported tomorrow, this is as good a time as any to post a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series
62,095 62,095 2017/04/26 -7 2017/01/21 621 Granblue Fantasy The Animation
18,393 21,604 2017/05/24 21 2017/03/10 354 Idolmaster Cinderella Girls Gekijou
4,352 6,674 2017/07/19 77 2016/11/25 28 Frame Arms Girl *
1,862 5,151 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/06 74 Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata ♭
1,728 4,756 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/07 72 sin Nanatsu no Taizai
1,711 4,887 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/12 34 Eromanga-sensei
1,655 3,461 2017/06/21 49 2017/03/25 45 Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2 *
1,537 8,237 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/19 128 Natsume Yuujin-chou Roku
1,357 3,034 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/05 52 Starmyu Season 2
716 2,214 2017/07/19 77 2017/04/01 24 Boku no Hero Academia 2nd
689 2,500 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/15 43 Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka Gaiden: Sword Oratoria
653 1,809 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/15 41 Re:Creators
646 1,481 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/03 23 Rokudenashi Majutsu Koushi to Akashic Records
610 1,473 2017/06/30 58 2017/04/05 23 Oushitsu Kyoushi Haine
487 1,250 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/24 13 Shuumatsu Nani Shitemasu ka? Isogashii desu ka? Sukutte Moratte Ii desu ka?
486 2,007 2017/07/19 77 2017/04/19 41 Sakura Quest
467 1,186 2017/06/14 42 2017/04/03 17 Tsugumomo
464 1,540 2017/07/28 86 2017/04/04 17 Uchouten Kazoku 2 *
396 1,708 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/07 17 Hinako Note
390 1,068 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/14 23 Clockwork Planet
348 982 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/24 9 Busou Shoujo Machiavellianism
243 483 2017/06/30 58 2017/04/07 10 Ren'ai Boukun
191 578 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/11 10 Fukumenkei Noise
142 474 2017/08/23 112 2017/03/24 4 Twin Angel Break *
116 454 2017/07/28 86 2017/04/03 4 Alice to Zouroku *
66 397 2017/08/25 114 2017/04/06 3 Room Mate
57 183 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/06 2 Sakurada Reset *
53 564 2017/08/02 91 2017/04/24 8 Zero kara Hajimeru Mahou no Sho *
43 194 2017/08/23 112 2017/04/14 3 Atom: The Beginning *
31 62 2017/06/23 51 2017/04/06 1 Love Kome: We Love Rice
24 95 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/14 1 Kabukibu! *

* I have a feeling more shows than usual will be underestimated because Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant. The shows with one or more discs subject to the penalty are: Uchouten Kazoku 2, Twin Angel Break, Zero kara Hajimeru Mahou no Sho, Sakurada Reset, Kabukibu!, Alice to Zouroku, Atom: The Beginning, Tsuki ga Kirei, Frame Arms Girl, and Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2.

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title

Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Other Comments
Starmyu Season 2 – Idol boys, s1 significantly underestimated. s2 will be as well, no doubt.
Granblue Fantasy will reveal its numbers soon enough but but I’m expecting this to be overestimated because its astounding Amazon rankings never seemed quite matched at other shops.
Tsuki ga Kirei was recently solicited and only has 5 days worth of points so far. Stalker only starts calculating estimates after a week. Right now it has 226 points, and if you did Stalker’s calculation method using 5 days it would have an estimation of 6,673. But with release 147 days away and it currently ranking well due to being half the price of normal releases and solicited a bit late, that number is meaningless.
Shingeki non Kyojin Season 2 – I feel like I’ve beat this one to death, but yes we’re looking at one of or probably the worst sequel drop in history. From a 52k juggernaut to a sequel estimated to sell somewhere between 3.5k and 8k (depending on whether you take the penalized estimate or not). Said it before and will say it again, do NOT let your big successful franchises languish for years before delivering a follow-up. TIME = DEATH.
Frame Arms Girl is very weird to estimate. First off, it was solicited an eternity ago, back in November 2016 (8 months before release!). Secondly, it’s better viewed as “plamo kit with a BD attached” than the opposite. v1 isn’t even available for purchase at Amazon anymore as of the last few days, no doubt because they’re taking orders for it as if it’s a figure, not a BD. To make things more confusing, it’s under Stalker’s high price penalty, which is another wrinkle to consider. I’m guessing it’ll go back up for order before release (which is still way off in July) but regardless, it shouldn’t be evaluated as if it’s a normal anime BD.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
There’s probably not much point in guessing right now! Granblue will be #1 and Deremas Gekijou should be #2 if the event ticket boost is enough to make up for lower v2-3 sales (it’s a short after all, those just don’t sell that many discs).

Frame Arms would normally seem like #3, but for all the reasons I’ve mentioned above, I genuinely have no idea how it’ll sell. It does have the plamo kits in every volume though, so it won’t plunge after ep 1 like other shows with v1 bonuses. If it’s produced in enough quantity or Saekano is weaker this time around, it’ll be #3.
I have no reason to believe Natsume will pass 6k average since it’s the sixth season and the fifth season averaged 5.4k. Maybe 5k this season.
Saekano s2 I’ll be bullish on because its first season was so heavily underestimated. I don’t think it’ll repeat to that degree this time, but hell, s1v1 only had a 4.2k estimate, but sold 6.6k wk1 and 13.2k total. Even the least underestimated volume sold 6.8k wk1 vs a 5.6k estimate.
Tsuki ga Kirei is a wild card but I’m guessing its estimate will be much lower 2-3 weeks from now so I’m ignoring it for now.

There’s no way the below will be correct in the end, and it could be WILDLY off after #2, but no harm just throwing blind guesses out I guess.

01. Granblue Fantasy
02. The Idolmaster Cinderella Girls Gekijou
03. Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata ♭
04. Frame Arms Girl
05. Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2
06. Starmyu Season 2
07. Natsume Yuujin-chou Go
08. Eromanga-sensei
09. sin Nanatsu no Taizai
10. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka Gaiden: Sword Oratoria

Also it goes without saying that my top 3 shows this season (Sukasuka, Hinako, Alizou) are dead as dirt. New season, same old disappointment!

22 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Spring 2017 thus far”

  1. something something says:

    For the record, I usually don’t bother checking the Monday night biz leaks since we’ll have the Youtaiju release the next morning anyway, but as soon as I finished this post, someone on Curiouscat sent me a question noting that the leaks were out and Granblue v1wk1 did 41,874. So yeah, I kinda figured it was heavily overestimated!

    Still going to crush everything else this season tho.

  2. Hahalollawl says:

    Yikes, I haven’t been watching anime sales particularly closely lately, but that SnK drop is staggering. All attributable to timing you think? Well, I guess with anime sales, strike while the iron is hot eh?

    It’s interesting how different the anime audience seems compared to western audiences. In the U.S. it seems like when something is successful you get sequel after sequel (see fast and furious) and spinoffs or similar shows/movies (super heroes and British stuff). Anime audiences, on the other hand, seem to get bored easily and perhaps are more fickle. Nobody seems to be able to find a balance (if one exists). With anime I feel like it’d be nice to get more 2 cour+ shows (so longer projects) whereas with western stuff it’s like, do we need a Star Wars movie every year?

    By the way, do you keep track of the mixed Chinese/Japanese projects? And if so, have we seen any of them actually succeed in terms of sales?

    • something something says:

      I don’t specifically include or exclude those mixed projects. Mostly, I don’t even know which ones are mixed, since I’m (probably) not watching any of them.

  3. homu says:

    > Shingeki non Kyojin Season 2 – I feel like I’ve beat this one to death, but yes we’re looking at one of or probably the worst sequel drop in history. From a 52k juggernaut to a sequel estimated to sell somewhere between 3.5k and 8k (depending on whether you take the penalized estimate or not). Said it before and will say it again, do NOT let your big successful franchises languish for years before delivering a follow-up. TIME = DEATH.

    Send help.

  4. ninadesu says:

    Wow Granblue is going to crush the much better-looking Shingeki no Bahamut: Virgin Soul to death thanks to BD bonuses… Oh well. Thanks Cygames for pampering the SnBVS production anyway.

    • atala says:

      Even the original Bahamut didn’t do too well in disc sales, in spite of also looking fantastic. I don’t think it averaged more than 2K? But probably the game’s performance got a sizable boost and that’s why Cygames decided to finance another season. Still disappointing that such an excellent show does so poorly

      • ninadesu says:

        I’m not sure it helped the RoB game much, and also they didn’t load the BDs with killer goodies like what Granblue’s doing, yet they went ahead with 24 ep second season, pre-produced (mostly? they aimed to finish animation before airing but idk if they succeeded).

        I think they just really like the anime, haha.

  5. Papa Shango says:

    This shitty Ecchi Yuri anime sin Nanatsu selling more than Attack on Titan?That would be the biggest joke if it happens.

    • something something says:

      There’s no meaningful relationship between the two, so the comparison only serves to put one show down to make another seem better. Don’t do that, or at least compare without demeaning one of them. (And I don’t actually expect Nanatai to sell better, Shingeki is almost certainly underestimated as explained in the post.)

  6. Hahalollawl says:

    Maybe the most interesting test case for a successful franchise’s longevity is Code Geass. I would expect it to do better than SnK 2 appears to be doing, but who knows…

    • something something says:

      The Akito OVA series definitely performed much lower than the TV series, but it was a spinoff sorta thing so probably isn’t predictive. Yeah, it’s going to be preeetty interesting to see how a true mainline sequel holds up after all these years.

  7. Blue mouser says:

    Aww was hoping for better predicted sales for The Eccentric Family. Love everything this anime, it’s locale, the way it uses Japanese folklore, the depiction of love and support within the Shimogamo family, the crazy mix of fantasy and reality. Hopefully season two will be available on American iTunes like season one. Though that will be sometime down the line

  8. Xenus says:

    Even with the understimation, you said AoT (SnK) would do 8k at most. But these are just the amazon estimate, AoT might have incomes through other places… I mean, it’s one of the most watched shows on Crunchyroll, everytime a new episode is up, they break Crunchyroll servers. How likely is that a season 3 won’t be released with this scenario AoT has?

    • something something says:

      Stalker’s estimate is based on Amazon, but it is calibrated to guess Oricon first week sales (which are based on many retailers). So it should still be relatively accurate, unless Shingeki is heavily biased towards non-Amazon shops (which doesn’t seem to be the case so far).

      But that aside, yes Shingeki absolutely has revenue from far more than disc sales. It is a massive franchise across multiple media, and has more international appeal than just about any other show in the last decade. It has fallen hard from its peak, but its peak was so high that it’s still, well, titanic.

      So a third season is still possible. It’s just not the super obvious surefire thing we might have assumed, or it might be happening under different circumstances. Perhaps we’d see Pony Canyon (DVD/BD publisher) slip lower in the committee (i.e. invest less money) and other companies would take their place.

      • Xenus says:

        Thanks! I guess it sucks to become fan of an unfinished anime show :( I really hope SnK won’t be cancelled.

    • BlackPoint says:

      Its not just CR its even the most viewed streamed anime in jpn, the only other reason why it could do this poorly is cuz its only 1cour cuz when they announced the amount of angry fans on twitter was really huge specialy we have waited 4years for it and pretty much everyone was 99% sure it would be 2cour with the material that is available for it. Or what do yout hink @something ?
      Anyway lets hope it atleast sales 10k~

      • something something says:

        I’m certainly not surprised at it being the most watched – the manga fanbase, as much as it’s dropped, is still silly huge. I really, really don’t think the length has anything to do with it though. Brats cursing in English at the Japanese twitter account is not representative of the average Shingeki viewer.

        People are going to watch to see how it’s adapted, but clearly they’re not very interested in buying anymore.

        • BlackPoint says:

          Ye its around top3 i think in jpn when it goes for popularity and then ye ofc worldwide its at the top aswell. I guess we really see more and more how anime will start to depend more on the streaming rights how much money they can get and with streams like amazon strike that get their exclusive rights its probably even more money for them, even if that means that amazon would provide a worse quality of subs then CR would cuz the 1st 2nd weeks with new episodes the subs were really bad at times and auto of synr….
          But else ye at jpn there are less and less ppl that are willing to pay tons of money for the bd-dvd pretty much only women buying atm their fujoshi stuff.

  9. David says:

    >New season, same old disappointment!

    Yes I feel you. There is only one of my top shows in the past 5 years sold more than 10k average (Kekkai Sensen, may God bless this show for its upcoming S2), the rest are all below 5k, some even can not pass 1k mark.

    Sigh, BnHA is likely to sell 2k-2k5 average, hope the 2nd season boosts the manga sales more than S1.

    • NukaCola says:

      I wonder at how HeroAca is doing, even just following the JPN TV ratings posted on ann, it seems HeroAca has been losing viewers more and more these past three episodes and I havent seen the manga appear to be doing better than it was doing the past few months. I assume maybe its ratings are more important than maybe its manga or anime disc sales? Hopefully it can squeeze out an s3.

  10. AnimePhoenix says:

    If Haine and Starmyu can do above 3k, I’ll be more than happy. Haine was such a surprise, it’s so good.

  11. Alvaro says:

    “I don’t wanna live in this planet anymore” every new season

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