Since two weeks ago there were some broken estimates, I decided to do this again.All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker.
|Pts so far||Feb-23 Est||Feb-08 Est||Rls Date||Days to Rls||Solcit Date||Pts/Day||Series|
|1,007||1,760||1,793||2017/03/29||33||2017/01/12||25||Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang|
|1,107||1,562||1,601||2017/04/26||61||2016/09/25||7||Rewrite Season 2|
|1,360||2,824||3,670||2017/04/12||47||2017/01/16||37||Yowamushi Pedal New Generation|
|1,629||2,581||2,653||2017/03/22||26||2017/01/14||42||Demi-chan wa Kataritai|
|1,697||3,824||3,129||2017/04/19||54||2017/01/08||38||Little Witch Academia|
|1,784||3,045||2,556||2017/03/15||19||2017/01/12||44||Kobayashi-san Chi no Maid Dragon|
|1,932||4,611||4,383||2017/04/21||56||2016/12/22||31||ACCA: 13-ku Kansatsu-ka|
|116||217||184||2017/04/04||39||2017/01/05||2||Akiba's Trip: The Animation|
|174||2017/06/07||103||2017/02/17||35||Shouwa Genroku Rakugo Shinjuu: Sukeroku Futatabi-hen|
|2,369||3,022||2,792||2017/03/08||12||2016/12/17||35||Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen|
|249||409||529||2017/04/12||47||2017/01/13||6||Minami Kamakura Koukou Joshi Jitensha-bu|
|311||1,210||2017/07/28||154||2017/01/27||12||Tales of Zestiria The X Season 2|
|543||910||997||2017/03/29||33||2017/01/20||16||Schoolgirl Strikers Animation Channel|
|628||1,087||1,202||2017/03/29||33||2017/01/13||16||Kuzu no Honkai|
|888||1,414||1,594||2017/03/22||26||2016/12/29||16||Masamune-kun no Revenge|
|9,135||12,807||25,994||2017/03/24||28||2016/12/21||145||Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2|
|938||1,314||1,265||2017/03/24||28||2016/12/19||14||Super Lovers 2|
Note: A couple days after I posted this, Stalker changed Youjo, Gabdro, and ACCA into “high price” items so the above estimates are invalid for those shows now. See details here.
The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 22, 9AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 22, 9AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST (previous estimate)
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Show title
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.
• 11 of 27 (that has an estimate last time) increased.16 of 27 dropped. Though some changes were really insignificant, so it’s better to think of them as flat.
• Rakugo s2 has not been solicited long enough to have an estimate yet.
• The Konosuba estimate is much more reasonable now. BanG Dream came back down to earth too and I still think it may be overestimated.
• Youjo is looking like more of a stretch for 10k, especially if it is overestimated.
• I don’t know how to evaluate ACCA. Maybe it’s overestimated because Amazon is one of the shops you can get the box. Or maybe not.