Did one of these for Fall 2016, albeit at a later point in the season, I think.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker. Over/Under assumptions and comments below the table are my own.

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Over/Under Series
6,910 25,994 2017/03/24 43 2016/12/21 144 Over Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2
2,593 10,977 2017/04/26 76 2017/01/15 113 Over Youjo Senki
1,718 2,792 2017/03/08 27 2016/12/17 33 Under Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen
1,709 7,392 2017/04/26 76 2017/01/16 78 Gintama.
1,328 3,964 2017/03/24 43 2016/12/19 27 Over Gabriel Dropout
1,300 4,383 2017/04/21 71 2016/12/22 28 ACCA: 13-ku Kansatsu-ka
1,201 3,129 2017/04/19 69 2017/01/08 40 Little Witch Academia
1,109 2,653 2017/03/22 41 2017/01/14 46 Demi-chan wa Kataritai
1,105 2,004 2017/03/29 48 2016/12/29 28 Fuuka
987 1,601 2017/04/26 76 2016/09/25 7 Rewrite Season 2
910 3,670 2017/04/12 62 2017/01/16 41 Under Yowamushi Pedal New Generation
887 2,556 2017/03/15 34 2017/01/12 34 Kobayashi-san Chi no Maid Dragon
833 7,853 2017/05/24 104 2017/01/21 49 Over BanG Dream!
754 1,265 2017/03/24 43 2016/12/19 15 Super Lovers 2
703 1,750 2017/04/05 55 2017/01/13 28 Seiren
693 1,793 2017/03/29 48 2017/01/12 27 Under Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang
618 1,594 2017/03/22 41 2016/12/29 15 Masamune-kun no Revenge
569 2,280 2017/05/26 106 2017/01/11 21 One Room
520 1,186 2017/03/24 43 2017/01/13 21 Urara Meirochou
440 720 2017/03/24 43 2016/12/15 8 Chaos;Child
428 1,202 2017/03/29 48 2017/01/13 17 Kuzu no Honkai
356 997 2017/03/29 48 2017/01/20 20 Schoolgirl Strikers Animation Channel
230 493 2017/03/22 41 2017/01/08 8 Idol Jihen
191 529 2017/04/12 62 2017/01/13 8 Minami Kamakura Koukou Joshi Jitensha-bu
148 347 2017/03/29 48 2017/01/07 5 ēlDLIVE
111 223 2017/03/24 43 2016/12/26 3 Hand Shakers
80 184 2017/04/04 54 2017/01/05 2 Akiba's Trip: The Animation

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title

Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Overestimation expectations
Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2 – Ignore this estimate. It’s just coming off a massive boost after details of this season’s v1 pack-in game were announced. It spent some time in the top 5 and that’s skewing the estimates extremely hard.
BanG Dream! – This one isn’t quite as insanely skewed as Konosuba, but it’s also in the middle of a bump, this time for details the v1 event ticket being announced. It’s also a very late release so the current boost is further exaggerated by there being so many days left
Youjo Senki – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.
Gabriel Dropout – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.

Underestimation expectations
Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen – Based on previous season.
Yowamushi Pedal New Generation – Based on previous season.
Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang – Idol boys.

Anything not mentioned in the two groups above I either expect to be reasonably close to estimates (less than 20% either way), or just don’t have enough information to form an expectation.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I’m not going to bother this early. Konosuba seems like a lock for #1-2 and might average 10k again. Youjo Senki has had a lot of staying power, so we’ll see how it does.

• Pretty weak season. Uh, yeah not much else for me to say. The stuff I’m potentially importing is all looking either middling (LWA, Gabdro) or dead (Urara, Minakama) as per usual. LWA I don’t see averaging even 3k given it’s two cour, and Urara/Minakama will be sub-1k. Gabdro is the one with potential to at least average 3k but I’m not convinced the Stalker estimate is accurate given the MSRP issue.

30 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Winter 2017 thus far”

  1. Ayumi says:

    I’m watching ACCA but 4,383 seems too high for that show. I don’t even think it’s aimed for the fujoshi audience. As of the latest episode, I can’t figure out which audience the show’s trying to attract. Is it doing well on Animate?

    • something
      something says:

      I think that one might be overestimated too because Amazon is one of the stores you can get the artbox at, and is presumably the cheapest of them. But don’t know enough to be sure.

    • Alvaro says:

      Well, it´s the “mature” josei show from the season (in addition to Rakugo), that should have its audience plus the manga fan, Natsume Ono is a well-known author.

  2. AholePony says:

    I wonder about Maid Dragon’s estimate, there seems to be a decent amount of fan art hitting pixiv and I’ve noticed that sometimes relates to strong fanbases….and higher than expected disk sales. Makes you wonder how much the Kyoani store manages to sell. Or maybe Kyoani’s string of middling series really has killed any bump they used to get just for being Kyoani.

    • something
      something says:

      Possibly. More than half of all the images in the tag ever uploaded are from the past week (800 out of 1600) which might represent a sudden huge increase in popularity. Or might not. Its ranking has also been higher in the past week or two than before. But it’s an early release so there’s not as much time for that to be reflected in the estimate.

      I’m always skeptical of any correlation between fanart and disc sales, though I’ve not tried to quantify it.

      • AholePony says:

        Nothing but arm(or desk)chair speculation on my part, if only we had ALL the data we could have some fun using analytics to see correlations in the communities and their purchases/spending habits.

  3. tillerman says:

    Can you also include Kemono Friends?

    It’s being sold as a guidebook with the BD episodes as extra, instead of the other way around, so Amazon lists it under books.

    • something
      something says:

      I can’t because:
      1. Stalker doesn’t track and provide estimates for books, so there’s no estimate to provide.
      2. It’s 3DCG show, which does not count as anime here.

    • hpulley says:

      Kemono Friends v1 _was_ up to #3 on the overall Amazon booklist, above SAO and Onii-sama light novels but… it is now unavailable. Amazon must have run out of pre-orders already. I don’t understand why but there is huge demand on that CGI kids geography and nature educational show… with some yuri kisses, apparently that’s a rodent greeting…

      Something, will you be tracking Hand Shakers? It may not rank anyway but it looks like it’s pretty much 100% CGI to me.

  4. Gatmar says:

    I did not need to see the point to see that youjo senkai and konsuba 2 are going to be the best sellers, that was a given.

    Gabriel Drop out is doing ok i guess

    but i am really dissapointed with Dragon maid and interviews of a monster girl…was hoping for a bit more.

    Akiba’s trip…ok could someone explain to me how studio Gonzo is still alive after all these years of poor sellers?

    • something
      something says:

      Gonzo is owned by a larger company, Iwakaze Capital. Now what they’re getting out of all this… I’m not sure.

  5. David says:

    What about grand blue fantasy how are their numbers going

    • something
      something says:

      It’s a Spring series, but v1 should sell quite a lot. It has a special code for the mobage to get a SSR character. The points to date are 20,738 and the estimate is 38,820 although that may go down over time. What’s unclear is if it’s Amazon biased or not.

  6. Alvaro says:

    Come on Trigger, you can do better.

    • Exukvera says:

      I think they are underestimating LWA. The same for Kobayashi-san.

      • something
        something says:

        The latter will be to some extent but I’m not sure about LWA. Getting people to buy a one-shot ONA vs getting them to buy a two cour, 9 volume TV series is a very different thing (as Yama no Susume recently saw, in a sorta similar case). LWA does -okay- at HMV but that’s about it. It’s really lost momentum at Amazon. Even if v1 cranks out about a 4k v1 in a good scenario, I have a feeling the average will be rather poor by the end.

        It may make that up in other ways (the Netflix deal is probably worth a good amount) but disc sales aren’t going to be strong.

  7. Gintoki_KotAro says:

    Hopefully Gintama and little witch academia to sells very good

  8. NukaCola says:

    Of my fav shows this season, only Marginal #4 is doing average, the rest are doing so bad :( (Hand Shakers, Super Lovers 2). Sad season. Though Im at least glad we got a Super Lovers 2, had not expected that ever.

    • ayumi says:

      I’m surprised Marginal #4 is not selling as well as the other idol shows. It’s actually much better than the other male idol shows pulling 7000 and up. (This and Starmyu is my favorite in the Idol genre.)

      This season of Super Lovers has been fun. I’m also glad we got a second season so it didn’t end in a cliffhanger. This is probably the final season because the sales are horrible.

    • Yaoi-Senpai says:

      Don’t worry about Super Lovers, the manga is selling so well, Vol.9 sold even higher than Junjou Romantica Vol.21.

  9. BlackPoint says:

    Kinda didnt expect those predictions for youjo senki but i guess an evil loli does the trick was expecting more around the 5k mark max that it could sell maybe since the manga and LN stuff is getting a nice boost

    • something
      something says:

      We’re in a market where 10k for pretty much anything except a sequel to a 10k-selling show is always a surprise to some extent. Though I still think Youjo Senki is somewhat overestimated.

  10. Blue mouser says:

    Didn’t expect to enjoy Youjo Senki so much. Probably won’t buy DVDs. Maybe some merch. Really fantastic animation. Sigh, wish YOI had gorgeous animation like this. No disrespect to MAPPA but wonder what YOI would have looked like had Studio NuT or Kyoani animated the series

    • JJ says:

      Kyoani’s style would really not fit with yoi in my opinion. I love their animation and anime but it would not work at all.

      • ayumi says:

        Yes I agree with JJ. Also, Kyoani is famous for queerbaiting so they wouldn’t have gone as far as making Yuri and Victor kiss and go canon. I wouldn’t traded Kyoani for MAPPA. MAPPA is more artistic and daring if you look at their previous works.

  11. something
    something says:

    We can see here another good example of how much Stalker’s estimates can be skewed by a temporary high rankings. I posted this less than a week ago and now Konosuba’s estimate is already back down to a probably still somewhat high but far, far more realistic 14,684.

    All those days in the top 10 have aged out of the 7 day moving window used to calculate the estimate. In another 4 days it should settle down closer to ~12k as its time in the top 50 ages out of the estimate window as well. And then it may drop further until release. 10k v1 still seems quite probable though.

    • Anonymous says:

      Yeah, this post was put out right after that Konosuba Megaman-esque PC game extra was announced right? That really inflated the projection.

      Odd to see Gabriel Dropout listed as a likely overestimate. It seems to be doing pretty decent for a ~4k seller at HMV (#12 at this moment) and is right behind Tanya and Konosuba S2 on Rakuten in the 200s and at least sometimes ranking on Animate and Gamers, which not a lot of other shows this season can claim. I guess what I mean is that it’s doing way better at other web storefronts than Demi-chan so I can see Gabriel Dropout hitting its estimate easier than I could see Demi-chan. Especially since it’s not like Gabriel Dropout has benefited from its higher-than-normal price point. It hasn’t even cracked the top 100 so I have a hard time seeing its points getting any boost.

      • something
        something says:

        Any benefit would be relative. If Gabdro were cheaper, maybe it’d be ranking in the 300s or 400s rather than the 200s. There’s not a massive point difference between, like, 250 and 350 but it does add up over time and we’re talking about a pretty niche show as is. 5k would be considered a really good performance.

        But we don’t have a ton of examples of shows in this price range to do any analysis on, and there’s a bunch of other factors that could throw any such analysis off. I’m mostly just playing it safe there, because if it *is* off, it could in theory be off pretty badly. It really comes down to how it’s doing at other shops, which is tricky to measure at best.

    • BlackPoint says:

      Well if konosuba can manage another 10k season seller that would still be very impressive cuz i bet nobody thought it would sell so much when 1st season came out and doing the same or close on the sequel is darn nice.
      Cuz usualy we always see atleast 30% drop with sequels or more its really rare that a sequel would be able to sell equaly as the 1st season.
      Anyway lookin forward to all this 1st vols and too see if we will get some 10k sellers in winter season :)

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