Did one of these for Fall 2016, albeit at a later point in the season, I think.
All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker. Over/Under assumptions and comments below the table are my own.
|Points so far||Estimate||Rls Date||Days to Rls||Solcit Date||Pts/Day||Over/Under||Series|
|6,910||25,994||2017/03/24||43||2016/12/21||144||Over||Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2|
|1,718||2,792||2017/03/08||27||2016/12/17||33||Under||Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen|
|1,300||4,383||2017/04/21||71||2016/12/22||28||ACCA: 13-ku Kansatsu-ka|
|1,201||3,129||2017/04/19||69||2017/01/08||40||Little Witch Academia|
|1,109||2,653||2017/03/22||41||2017/01/14||46||Demi-chan wa Kataritai|
|987||1,601||2017/04/26||76||2016/09/25||7||Rewrite Season 2|
|910||3,670||2017/04/12||62||2017/01/16||41||Under||Yowamushi Pedal New Generation|
|887||2,556||2017/03/15||34||2017/01/12||34||Kobayashi-san Chi no Maid Dragon|
|754||1,265||2017/03/24||43||2016/12/19||15||Super Lovers 2|
|693||1,793||2017/03/29||48||2017/01/12||27||Under||Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang|
|618||1,594||2017/03/22||41||2016/12/29||15||Masamune-kun no Revenge|
|428||1,202||2017/03/29||48||2017/01/13||17||Kuzu no Honkai|
|356||997||2017/03/29||48||2017/01/20||20||Schoolgirl Strikers Animation Channel|
|191||529||2017/04/12||62||2017/01/13||8||Minami Kamakura Koukou Joshi Jitensha-bu|
|80||184||2017/04/04||54||2017/01/05||2||Akiba's Trip: The Animation|
The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.
• Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo! 2 – Ignore this estimate. It’s just coming off a massive boost after details of this season’s v1 pack-in game were announced. It spent some time in the top 5 and that’s skewing the estimates extremely hard.
• BanG Dream! – This one isn’t quite as insanely skewed as Konosuba, but it’s also in the middle of a bump, this time for details the v1 event ticket being announced. It’s also a very late release so the current boost is further exaggerated by there being so many days left
• Youjo Senki – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.
• Gabriel Dropout – Its MSRP comes in just under the point where Starter starts applying a heavy penalty, so it’s getting points like a normal release. Could be overestimated.
• Ao no Exorcist: Kyoto Fujouou-hen – Based on previous season.
• Yowamushi Pedal New Generation – Based on previous season.
• Marginal#4: Kiss kara Tsukuru Big Bang – Idol boys.
Anything not mentioned in the two groups above I either expect to be reasonably close to estimates (less than 20% either way), or just don’t have enough information to form an expectation.
Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I’m not going to bother this early. Konosuba seems like a lock for #1-2 and might average 10k again. Youjo Senki has had a lot of staying power, so we’ll see how it does.
• Pretty weak season. Uh, yeah not much else for me to say. The stuff I’m potentially importing is all looking either middling (LWA, Gabdro) or dead (Urara, Minakama) as per usual. LWA I don’t see averaging even 3k given it’s two cour, and Urara/Minakama will be sub-1k. Gabdro is the one with potential to at least average 3k but I’m not convinced the Stalker estimate is accurate given the MSRP issue.