Ranking summary for the weeks of 2016 12/05, 12/12, 12/19

The following rankings have been updated to reflect the full data released this week.

» Weekly sales for 12/05 – 12/11
» Weekly sales for 12/12 – 12/18
» Weekly sales for 12/19 – 12/25

» 2000-Present, TV Anime Sales over 10k
» 2000-Present, Long-running franchises, Average and Per-volume sales
» TV Anime BD Boxsets over ¥100m
» Box Office Gross, TV Anime Adaptations
» Series Data – Quick View

» 2015 Total Average Sales Ranking
» 2015 Per-volume Sales Ranking

» 2016 Total Average Sales Ranking
» 2016 Per-volume Sales Ranking
» 2016 Summer Seasonal Vol 1 Rankings
» 2016 Fall Seasonal Vol 1 Rankings

Other posts since last ranking summary:
» 2016 Anime Watching Year in Review (with Final 2016 Fall update, Winter 2017 Plans)
» All-time Favorites (updated 2016-12-29)

 

Note, the full ranking for the week of 12/19 is not yet out. Oricon will release it this week alongside the full 01/02 ranking later this week. But we already got leaks for the Fall v1s and box sets for the week, so the data is mostly complete.

Also: FLIP FLAP FLIP FLAP

20 Responses to “Ranking summary for the weeks of 2016 12/05, 12/12, 12/19”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Where are the leaks for the 01/02/17 list? Not seeing anything other than Regalia and Nanbaka in the 2016 Fall seasonal Vol 1 Rankings list.

    • Anonymous says:

      Nevermind. Those two are late November release, not December. Guess there hasn’t been any leak then.

    • something
      something says:

      Prelims delayed until Thursday. New Year’s holiday.

      12/19-12/25 = Prelims last Tuesday, Full delayed to this Thursday
      12/26-01/01 = Prelims delayed to this Thursday, Full will hit the same day
      01/02-01/08 = Data comes out the following Tuesday so Wouldn’t be out until next Tuesday anyway

      As for the 12/19-12/25 leaks, there were a ton of v1s on 12/21 and 12/23 and they’re all included in the weekly ranking: http://www.someanithing.com/6198. Anything I mention there below 632 DVDs or 2,565 BDs came from the Biz leaks.

      • Ayumi says:

        Happy New Year, Someanithing! Thanks for answering our questions all the time.

        That’s thursday in Japan right? So, we should expect the sales report to appear in approximately 14-15 hours? Thanks!! I live in Los Angeles so that is around 10pm. I hope it’s not after 12am. Thanks!

        • something
          something says:

          Prelims for the week of 12/26 come out on 5PM JST on Thursday. That’ll be 3AM my time, or 12AM your time.

          Assuming I get up at 3AM to do the sales (I’ve been getting up closer to 4AM but I’ll probably do 3AM this week) it then takes me 45-90 minutes to complete the post on a normal week. But typically I’m commenting on Twitter about new Vol. 1s or finalized series averages for last volumes as I go, so I’ll probably tweet it out (@somekindofthing) a few minutes after 3AM EST. (If I don’t oversleep because my body is only used to getting up at 3-4AM on Tuesdays, not Thursdays.)

          I suppose since this is the most interested people have been in a v1 since Osomatsu-san or even longer, I’ll probably just drop a comment in the pinned post as well so people don’t have to wait for me to finish the post, since they take a while.

          • Ayumi says:

            Okay! Thanks! Sounds good.

          • something
            something says:

            While we’re on the topic, as usual I recommend not paying too much attention to the daily rankings, but here’s how YOI did in its release week, from 12/27 to 01/01:

            BD: 5 > 3 > 2 > 2 > 2 > 4
            DVD: 9 > 5 > 3 > 3 > 4 > 8

            #1 for the whole week on both DVD and BD was 「Clip! Smap! コンプリートシングルス」 so if anyone has any idea how well things like that usually sell, I guess it’s a theoretical upper limit on YOI’s sales.

            On DVD the other stuff it tended to be behind was GENERATIONS LIVE TOUR 2016 SPEEDSTER and ONE PIECE Film Gold.

            Since it’s biased towards BD, those DVD numbers shouldn’t be too concerning. And it not taking #1 on BD seems to be because this SMAP thing is probably huge. So basically… the dailies tell us nothing, as usual.

            • JJ says:

              SMAP is a boyband! They are absolutely iconic and have been around since 1988. Their album almost sold 700k last week if that gives you a scale of their popularity. A single (The One and Only flower in the World) they released in 2003 is the 5th best selling Japanese single ever and the 1st in the 21st century. Their weekly variety television show that debuted in 1996 was number #1 in annual Japanese household share ratings this year. (And a bunch of other years. Its arguably the most watched television show in Japan)

              • JJ says:

                Also they disbanded on Dec 31st last year and the album that released last week was their last one celebrating 25 years of SMAP. :( (the songs were chosen by fans)

            • Ayumi says:

              Not gonna lie but those dailies are kind of disappointing! I think a big hit boyband DVD can sell as high as 200k-500k overall (I have seen those charts around). SMAP is being disbanded this year so their sales may be SUPER BIG. But the DVD chart is a bit low unless that ONE PIECE movies sells tons.

              So, considering all these info, what is your final prediction that it will sell on the first week? I remember your previous you were expecting it to sell 50,000 overall?

              Anyway, I guess we’ll see in less than a day.

              • something
                something says:

                BD estimate was 18,966
                DVD estimate was 10,456

                If it beats both numbers by 33% (a conservative estimate) that’s 25,224 + 13,906 = 39,131 wk1.

                If we assume 25k BDs then the BD dailies look like entirely reasonable. Lower on the 27th and 28th (which would have been a limited number of retailers reporting it days before official release) and then 2 > 2 > 2 behind SMAP on the days where most retailers would normally ship (12/29 presale, 12/30 official release, and 12/31 first day after). Dropping to #4 on Sunday 1/01 isn’t that unusual, since it’s just behind SMAP (of course) and two popular children’s movies (Pets and Finding Dory) which tend to get large bumps on weekends even if they’ve been out for a while.

                If we assume 14k DVDs, I think the DVD rankings make a little more sense. They’re only expected to do a little over half of what BDs, do, and the pattern is similar to BD. Worse rankings on 12/27 and 12/28 (before even pre-release day), then stronger on 12/29 and 12/30 (pre-release and release), behind only SMAP and some Exile Tribe thing (another big concert disc). One notch lower on 12/31 (behind those two + One Piece), and then dropping on Sunday 1/01 due to the mainstream Sunday bump (3 concerts, 2 version of One Piece, and some X Men movie).

                So nothing in the rankings clearly precludes at least a 35k opener and 40k is doable. But daily rankings are always a crapshoot, because you don’t know if two consecutive positions are separated by 1000 or 10000 discs.

                My guess is it could overperform a 33% guess on BD and maaaaaybe underperform it on DVD, if Amazon took an unusually massive chunk of sales from Animate thanks to its store exclusive bonus.

                Honestly, if it hasn’t one so crazy well at Amazon I’d normally be assuming AT LEAST 80% underestimation given its ridiculous Animate dominance. So me making a 33% underestimation guess should be super conservative. But who knows, predicting these things is incredibly hard and mostly bling guessing.

                • JJ says:

                  If you take the next two days into account
                  BDs go to 3>3
                  DVDs jump 5>6

                  Which seems pretty decent.

                  https://tieba.baidu.com/p/4927171173

                  • Ayumi says:

                    OMG those baidu Chinese fans are even more obsessed than me lol! Looks like they’re analyzing every single ranking.

                    • JJ says:

                      Right? haha, I just hope YoI does well enough to warrant a second season, which looks pretty likely. Maybe it can beat Free to become #1 sports anime of the decade? Who knows! Also maybe a strong Amazon performance indicates a low ticket drop? Stalker doesn’t seem to be showing any big ticket drop anyway… It feels weird speculating when we’ll know in a matter of hours anyway.

                    • something
                      something says:

                      v2 having an event ticket as well will cushion the drop a bit. So we’ll see how v3 does. v3’s estimate is going to be inflated a bit right now because it’s ranking so high but is two months away.

                    • Ayumi says:

                      I want it to do well because I’ve seen some nasty homophobic comments at a specific forum that says they hope it “flops” because they don’t want a gay show to be at the same level as the Top selling shows etc etc. It’s laughable and sad.

                      Here’s my crazy FINAL prediction:

                      Bluray: 40,000 (It’s been topping ONE PIECE on the BD ranking. ONE PIECE’s previous movie sale was 40k for the limited version so I’m betting on YOI to sell over 40k.)

                      DVD: 18,000

                      TOTAL: 58,000 copies sold first week.

                      I’m pretty sure I’m deluded though.

                    • something
                      something says:

                      I wouldn’t use the previous OP film as a comparison point, because it was far bigger than Film Gold is likely to be.

                      Film Z BD estimate: 40,554 LE / 4,261 RE
                      Film Gold BD estimate: 14,265 LE / 2,735 RE

                      Doesn’t mean YOI can’t do 40k BDs anyway. It’s possible. But Film Z isn’t a good baseline.

  2. Yaoi-Senpai says:

    OMG I WAS WAITING FOR YURI ON ICE SALES SINCE OCT!! YES, SINCE OCTOBER!!! T_T
    I can’t wait any longer, I swear I won’t sleep till I see the sales, and I’m sure we will get a sequel of Yuri on ice, so no need for the fans to worry. >:3

    Btw, Yuri on ice is made for everyone, NOT only for Fujoshies.

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