I haven’t done one of these since Winter 2015, largely because there simply hasn’t been much of anything interesting going on in anime sales (for me anyway) in a very long time. And honestly, that holds true this season as well: I’m only watching one show that might go over 5k, and definitely none that could come anywhere near 10k in their wildest dreams.
But since this season is so important to the year overall, and since someone recently asked for it, here’s some discussion on the Fall 2016 season.
All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker. Over/Under assumptions and comments below the table are my own.
|Wk1 Sales||Estimate||Rls Date||Accuracy||Series|
|395||-||2016/11/02||*||Regalia: The Three Sacred Stars|
We’ll get the released titles out of the way first. Stalker was close (±20%) on Nanbaka and Keijo, reasonably close on Working, and very low on Dream Festival. Working’s estimate isn’t bad considering DVDs were pretty off and contributed a sizable portion of the estimate due to the included event disc. Dream Festival is idol boys so of course it was underestimated heavily. Nothing unusual so far this season. (Regalia could not be estimated because Stalker never tracked the non-Amazon edition.)
|Points so far||Estimate||Rls Date||Days to Rls||Solcit Date||Pts/Day||Over/Under||Series|
|19,763||34,868||2016/12/30||18||2016/10/06||233||Under||Yuuri!! On Ice|
|8,386||8,386||2016/12/07||2016/10/07||137||Under||Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou|
|7,592||7,813||2016/12/14||2||2016/09/24||94||Under||Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru|
|3,930||7,513||2017/01/11||30||2016/11/18||73||Under||Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star|
|6,569||7,468||2016/12/21||9||2016/09/30||80||Hibike! Euphonium 2|
|4,825||7,204||2017/02/24||74||2016/10/03||34||Kidou Senshi Gundam: Tekketsu no Orphans 2nd Season|
|5,124||5,714||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/12||73||Natsume Yuujin-chou Go|
|1,717||2,567||2017/01/25||44||2016/09/29||15||3-gatsu no Lion|
|2,234||2,468||2016/12/21||9||2016/09/30||27||Over||Shuumatsu no Izetta|
|1,700||1,934||2016/12/23||11||2016/10/07||22||Over||Okusama ga Seitokaichou!+!|
|1,158||1,589||2016/12/28||16||2016/10/06||14||Under||Show By Rock!!#|
|1,292||1,556||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/21||21||Lostorage incited WIXOSS|
|1,096||1,292||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/01||14||Mahou Shoujo Ikusei Keikaku|
|965||1,251||2016/12/23||11||2016/10/04||12||Shakunetsu no Takkyuu Musume|
|839||1,005||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/09||11||Udon no Kuni no Kiniro Kemari|
|599||941||2017/02/24||74||2016/10/05||4||Over||Mahou Shoujo Nante Mou Ii Desukara. 2nd Season|
|703||843||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/03||9||Stella no Mahou|
|532||627||2016/12/21||9||2016/10/08||7||Under||Watashi ga Motete Dousunda|
|280||437||2017/01/27||46||2016/09/23||2||Trickster: Edogawa Ranpo Shounen Tanteidan yori|
|242||431||2017/01/27||46||2016/10/05||2||Soushin Shoujo Matoi|
|136||233||2017/01/25||44||2016/10/21||1||Fune wo Amu|
The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of December 11 (JST), taken at about 5AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of December 11 (JST), taken at about 5AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title
Notes on inconsistent solicitation dates
• Vivid Strike‘s non-Amazon edition was solicited 2 days later
• Watashi ga Motete Dousunda‘s Amazon edition was solicited 1 month later
• Fune wo Amu‘s and Idol Memories‘ Amazon editions were both solicited 1 day later
• Vivid Strike and Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star were solicited extremely late relative to their release dates, especially Vivid. Lostorage incited WIXOSS was rather late too.
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.
• Drifters – Boxsets have Amazon bias, Amazon edition is outperforming non-Amazon edition, earliest solicitation of the remaining titles. Doing okay-ish at other shops but not amazing. I think it’ll hit its estimate lifetime, but not wk1.
• Shuumatsu no Izetta – No ranking at other shops, Amazon edition is outperforming non-Amazon edition, rankings have been down a lot from its ep 3 peak.
• Okusama ga Seitokaichou!+! – Based on previous season performance
• Anitore! XX – Based on previous season performance
• Teekyuu 8 – Based on previous season performance
• Mahou Shoujo Nante Mou Ii Desukara. 2nd Season – Based on previous season performance
• Yuuri!! On Ice – Unchallenged at Animate, destroying all competition since mid-October. However, the very high Amazon estimates and especially the overwhelming strength of its Amazon edition should cut down heavily on potential underestimation. It’ll certainly still be underestimated though.
• Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star – Based on previous season performance, extremely good Animate performance, and how comically late it was solicited at Amazon. The underestimation would be even more ridiculous if it were a December release rather than Mid-January, but will still be really ridiculous, like potentially it could sell 6x its estimate, or at least 5x.
• Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou – Based on previous season performance and Animate performance, as well as the high points per day/fairly short solicitation period.
• Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru – Based on Animate performance
• ViVid Strike! – Based on previous season performance (though it’s a sketchy comparison for various reasons) and extremely late solicitation on Amazon. It has the shortest period between solicitation and release of any upcoming title, at 47 days (even less than Utapri’s 54 days). The average time to solicitation is about 92 days.
• Magic-Kyun! Renaissance – Based on genre standards
• Show By Rock!!# – Based on previous season performance
• All Out!! – Based on genre standards, though I’ve heard so little about it that this is a blind guess. The estimate is so low it won’t make much difference in total points though.
• Watashi ga Motete Dousunda – Based on genre standards… maybe?
Anything not mentioned in the two groups above I either expect to be reasonably close to estimates, or just don’t have enough information to form an expectation.
Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I usually don’t do a lot of my own predictions, as I prefer to leave it to Stalker’s algorithm and comment on where we should reasonably expect discrepancies. I also don’t want anyone to assume my guesses are based on any special knowledge, because they sure aren’t. But I’ll make some guesses here. These may be wildly wrong!
|Vol. 1 Total||Final Average||Series|
|50,000||35,000||Yuuri!! On Ice|
|50,000||28,000||Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star|
|18,000||14,000||Token Ranbu: Hanamaru|
|15,000||11,000||Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou|
|11,000||8,500||Hibike! Euphonium 2|
|9,000||7,000||Kidou Senshi Gundam: Tekketsu no Orphans 2nd Season|
|7,000||5,500||Natsume Yuujin-chou Go|
• My YOI estimate is a total ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ WAKARIMASEN ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ because nobody has any clue what that show is doing right now. We can’t guess what its upper limit is, nor can we know what its bottom is because we don’t know if Utapri collapsed or not.
• As for Utapri, I’m assuming a pretty sizable drop from previous seasons based on what its fanbase seems to be saying. This would be a 10k v1 event ticket drop and a 7k average drop. Seems fair? An increase in the number of event tickets would be a big deal I guess.
• Maybe my Tourabu estimate is more bearish than is warranted, but it really seems to be overshadowed by YOI and Utapri. Whether that’s because it’s actually losing sales to them or because they’re just masking its success, I really don’t know. Or maybe fans are waiting for the more serious ufotable take on the franchise next year.
• Drifters is a one-shot box with an event ticket which is why it has a chance at 10k. Otherwise it probably wouldn’t get there.
• Natsume will almost certainly underperform its previous seasons by a lot. Initially I assumed it’d be underestimated, but the series never really has been. The estimates have been quite close.
• It becomes kinda pathetic below Natsume, so take it with an extra grain of salt.
• Working we already know v1 for, though it’s expected to drop. I don’t see it outperforming s3 and that did 4.7k.
• Other contenders for the #10 spot are… well, none really. ViVid Strike might pull #11, or it could be Magic-Kyun with Animate-effect. Long-shot, massive Show By Rock s2 underestimation? I can’t see any real dark horse contenders beyond those.