I haven’t done one of these since Winter 2015, largely because there simply hasn’t been much of anything interesting going on in anime sales (for me anyway) in a very long time. And honestly, that holds true this season as well: I’m only watching one show that might go over 5k, and definitely none that could come anywhere near 10k in their wildest dreams.

But since this season is so important to the year overall, and since someone recently asked for it, here’s some discussion on the Fall 2016 season.

All Points/Estimates are based on Amazon Ranking Stalker. Over/Under assumptions and comments below the table are my own.

Already Released

Wk1 Sales Estimate Rls Date Accuracy Series
5,671 7,512 2016/11/23 24.5% WWW.Working!!
860 1,025 2016/11/23 16.1% Keijo!!!!!!!!
805 469 2016/12/02 -71.6% Dream Festival!
543 461 2016/11/30 -17.8% Nanbaka
395 - 2016/11/02 * Regalia: The Three Sacred Stars

We’ll get the released titles out of the way first. Stalker was close (±20%) on Nanbaka and Keijo, reasonably close on Working, and very low on Dream Festival. Working’s estimate isn’t bad considering DVDs were pretty off and contributed a sizable portion of the estimate due to the included event disc. Dream Festival is idol boys so of course it was underestimated heavily. Nothing unusual so far this season. (Regalia could not be estimated because Stalker never tracked the non-Amazon edition.)

Upcoming Releases

Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Over/Under Series
19,763 34,868 2016/12/30 18 2016/10/06 233 Under Yuuri!! On Ice
8,909 10,224 2016/12/30 18 2016/09/11 81 Over Drifters
8,386 8,386 2016/12/07 2016/10/07 137 Under Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou
7,592 7,813 2016/12/14 2 2016/09/24 94 Under Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru
3,930 7,513 2017/01/11 30 2016/11/18 73 Under Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star
6,569 7,468 2016/12/21 9 2016/09/30 80 Hibike! Euphonium 2
4,825 7,204 2017/02/24 74 2016/10/03 34 Kidou Senshi Gundam: Tekketsu no Orphans 2nd Season
5,124 5,714 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/12 73 Natsume Yuujin-chou Go
4,126 5,495 2017/02/24 74 2016/09/30 28 Brave Witches
2,237 2,665 2016/12/21 9 2016/11/04 48 Under ViVid Strike!
1,717 2,567 2017/01/25 44 2016/09/29 15 3-gatsu no Lion
2,234 2,468 2016/12/21 9 2016/09/30 27 Over Shuumatsu no Izetta
1,804 2,145 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/02 23 Under Magic-Kyun! Renaissance
1,700 1,934 2016/12/23 11 2016/10/07 22 Over Okusama ga Seitokaichou!+!
1,102 1,824 2017/02/24 74 2016/10/07 8 Over Anitore! XX
1,158 1,589 2016/12/28 16 2016/10/06 14 Under Show By Rock!!#
1,292 1,556 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/21 21 Lostorage incited WIXOSS
985 1,552 2017/02/24 74 2016/10/06 7 Over Teekyuu 8
1,288 1,477 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/07 17 Long Riders!
957 1,311 2017/01/06 25 2016/10/13 11 Flip Flappers
1,096 1,292 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/01 14 Mahou Shoujo Ikusei Keikaku
1,080 1,251 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/14 16 Gi(a)rlish Number
965 1,251 2016/12/23 11 2016/10/04 12 Shakunetsu no Takkyuu Musume
606 1,084 2017/01/25 44 2016/09/21 5 Under All Out!!
1,065 1,065 2016/12/07 2016/10/08 18 Occultic;Nine
839 1,005 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/09 11 Udon no Kuni no Kiniro Kemari
599 941 2017/02/24 74 2016/10/05 4 Over Mahou Shoujo Nante Mou Ii Desukara. 2nd Season
703 843 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/03 9 Stella no Mahou
397 777 2017/01/20 39 2016/10/13 4 Bernard-jou Iwaku.
532 627 2016/12/21 9 2016/10/08 7 Under Watashi ga Motete Dousunda
242 489 2017/01/27 46 2016/10/15 2 Classicaloid
280 437 2017/01/27 46 2016/09/23 2 Trickster: Edogawa Ranpo Shounen Tanteidan yori
242 431 2017/01/27 46 2016/10/05 2 Soushin Shoujo Matoi
136 233 2017/01/25 44 2016/10/21 1 Fune wo Amu
65 127 2017/02/03 53 2016/11/10 1 Idol Memories

The above columns show, in order
• Stalker current wk1 points as of December 11 (JST), taken at about 5AM JST
• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of December 11 (JST), taken at about 5AM JST
• Release Date
• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)
• Solicitation Date
• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))
• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions
• Show title

Notes on inconsistent solicitation dates
Vivid Strike‘s non-Amazon edition was solicited 2 days later
Watashi ga Motete Dousunda‘s Amazon edition was solicited 1 month later
Fune wo Amu‘s and Idol Memories‘ Amazon editions were both solicited 1 day later
Vivid Strike and Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star were solicited extremely late relative to their release dates, especially Vivid. Lostorage incited WIXOSS was rather late too.

Comments
Points per day vs Days to release
Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Overestimation expectations
Drifters – Boxsets have Amazon bias, Amazon edition is outperforming non-Amazon edition, earliest solicitation of the remaining titles. Doing okay-ish at other shops but not amazing. I think it’ll hit its estimate lifetime, but not wk1.
Shuumatsu no Izetta – No ranking at other shops, Amazon edition is outperforming non-Amazon edition, rankings have been down a lot from its ep 3 peak.
Okusama ga Seitokaichou!+! – Based on previous season performance
Anitore! XX – Based on previous season performance
Teekyuu 8 – Based on previous season performance
Mahou Shoujo Nante Mou Ii Desukara. 2nd Season – Based on previous season performance

Underestimation expectations
Yuuri!! On Ice – Unchallenged at Animate, destroying all competition since mid-October. However, the very high Amazon estimates and especially the overwhelming strength of its Amazon edition should cut down heavily on potential underestimation. It’ll certainly still be underestimated though.
Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star – Based on previous season performance, extremely good Animate performance, and how comically late it was solicited at Amazon. The underestimation would be even more ridiculous if it were a December release rather than Mid-January, but will still be really ridiculous, like potentially it could sell 6x its estimate, or at least 5x.
Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou – Based on previous season performance and Animate performance, as well as the high points per day/fairly short solicitation period.
Touken Ranbu: Hanamaru – Based on Animate performance
ViVid Strike! – Based on previous season performance (though it’s a sketchy comparison for various reasons) and extremely late solicitation on Amazon. It has the shortest period between solicitation and release of any upcoming title, at 47 days (even less than Utapri’s 54 days). The average time to solicitation is about 92 days.
Magic-Kyun! Renaissance – Based on genre standards
Show By Rock!!# – Based on previous season performance
All Out!! – Based on genre standards, though I’ve heard so little about it that this is a blind guess. The estimate is so low it won’t make much difference in total points though.
Watashi ga Motete Dousunda – Based on genre standards… maybe?

Anything not mentioned in the two groups above I either expect to be reasonably close to estimates, or just don’t have enough information to form an expectation.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses
I usually don’t do a lot of my own predictions, as I prefer to leave it to Stalker’s algorithm and comment on where we should reasonably expect discrepancies. I also don’t want anyone to assume my guesses are based on any special knowledge, because they sure aren’t. But I’ll make some guesses here. These may be wildly wrong!

Vol. 1 Total Final Average Series
50,000 35,000 Yuuri!! On Ice
50,000 28,000 Uta no Prince-sama Maji Love Legend Star
18,000 14,000 Token Ranbu: Hanamaru
15,000 11,000 Haikyuu!!: Karasuno Koukou VS Shiratorizawa Gakuen Koukou
10,000 10,000 Drifters
11,000 8,500 Hibike! Euphonium 2
9,000 7,000 Kidou Senshi Gundam: Tekketsu no Orphans 2nd Season
7,000 5,500 Natsume Yuujin-chou Go
6,500 4,500 WWW.Working!!
6,000 4,500 Brave Witches

Comments
• My YOI estimate is a total ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ WAKARIMASEN ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ because nobody has any clue what that show is doing right now. We can’t guess what its upper limit is, nor can we know what its bottom is because we don’t know if Utapri collapsed or not.
• As for Utapri, I’m assuming a pretty sizable drop from previous seasons based on what its fanbase seems to be saying. This would be a 10k v1 event ticket drop and a 7k average drop. Seems fair? An increase in the number of event tickets would be a big deal I guess.
• Maybe my Tourabu estimate is more bearish than is warranted, but it really seems to be overshadowed by YOI and Utapri. Whether that’s because it’s actually losing sales to them or because they’re just masking its success, I really don’t know. Or maybe fans are waiting for the more serious ufotable take on the franchise next year.
• Drifters is a one-shot box with an event ticket which is why it has a chance at 10k. Otherwise it probably wouldn’t get there.
• Natsume will almost certainly underperform its previous seasons by a lot. Initially I assumed it’d be underestimated, but the series never really has been. The estimates have been quite close.
• It becomes kinda pathetic below Natsume, so take it with an extra grain of salt.
• Working we already know v1 for, though it’s expected to drop. I don’t see it outperforming s3 and that did 4.7k.
• Other contenders for the #10 spot are… well, none really. ViVid Strike might pull #11, or it could be Magic-Kyun with Animate-effect. Long-shot, massive Show By Rock s2 underestimation? I can’t see any real dark horse contenders beyond those.

52 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Fall 2016 thus far”

  1. Natapori says:

    Awesome!!! Yuri!!! on ICE. When first saw trailer I never so far.After ep10 on-air huge boost again.I can’ wait to see result.

  2. makotachi says:

    I’m really hoping that YOI just wrecks everything. I’ll be so pleased to see an anime with a legit, gay relationship become one of the best selling shows in Japan of all time.

    • Ejc says:

      No doubt Yuri on Ice will sell well, maybe enough to be in the Top 25/30 TV Anime since year 2000, but one of the best selling TV Anime of all time? That’s really pushing it, considering there are definitely TV Anime before year 2000, that will have sold better. These anime would have also been lacking in sales data coverage compared to the Oricon data collection era.

      • makotachi says:

        We obviously have different definitions for the phrases we’re using. Being in the top 30 within the past 16 years is something I would consider being among the best sellers of all time. You don’t have to consider it that way though, obviously.

    • Elio says:

      Will that REALLY discredit a lot of popular bishoujo shows like Love Live that were being coy on or “baiting” girl-girl relationships up to this point?

      • something
        something says:

        I don’t see that as being the implication makotachi was making, no.

        YOI’s success will, ideally, be taken as a sign that you don’t *have* to be coy about it. Whether that success can be replicated elsewhere, well… maybe in M-M relationships, but I am sadly skeptical that it’ll work for F-F relationships. M-M has a much more dedicated fanbase that puts their money where their mouth is. I can’t say that about many of my fellow yuri fans.

        • Ayumi says:

          I feel like YURI ON ICE being a huge hit may positively affect future shows for BOTH m/m and f/f relationships in anime. I also like that it will officially place a canon LGBT couple in the top 50 anime shows of all time in terms of sales. There’s never been a legit canon gay couple in hit anime shows. The YOI author herself even claims to be sick of het couples because there’s too many of them in anime stories. I hope she explores lesbians in her next project lol. She was very open about her “So sick of het stories” on twitter.

          This is an example but I can definitely imagine the producers of “MADOKA” having a meeting and they’ll be thinking “Hmmm YOI is a big hit, maybe we don’t have to coy about Madoka and Homura being in love and make them official in season 2.”

          For sure, I think this will change SOMETHING and have a positive shift in LGBT themes in the future in anime. I hope so!

          • nukacola says:

            I think we could temporarily get more but that wouldn’t necessarily lead to success, why havent actually BL anime found such high sucess (poor super lovers :( ).

            To me yuri on ice seemed popular before it went all in on yuuri x victor suggesting there might be something other than the relationship driving its success. I mean it seemed like it was already a hit at ep1/2.

            Would yuri on ice formula clones really succeed or have just as good writing?

            • something
              something says:

              Success is always in very, very, very large part a matter of luck. It’s certainly not a matter of good writing, which in addition to being subjective isn’t in any way adequate.

              YOI just struck a nerve, in a good way. And not just with existing anime fans. You can’t predict that. In an alternate reality where YOI is exactly the same show but is on track to sell 5k, none of us would bat an eye! We’d just shrug and say something like:
              “Well, it was an original, so it had a handicap popular manga like Haikyuu and Kurobas didn’t” and/or
              “Well, it just didn’t have a hook to pull the audience in and rack up the really big numbers, so it’s only doing ‘Ok'” and/or
              “Well, there was a ton of competition for women’s yen this season, what with Utapri and Tourabu and Haikyuu all in the same season, of course it couldn’t compete on equal footing with such established powerhouses” and so on.

              This is why I’m always so reluctant to answer “Why did ‘x’ sell?” or “Why did ‘y’ flop?” questions. There’s generally no good answer, and hindsight isn’t so much 20/20 as an illusion that seems to be so.

              Anyway, I agree with you that it’s not the gay relationship in and of itself that is creating the sales. (Although it *did* see a very real and sustained uptick after the big event.) All we can say is that BL has the potential to move discs, because there is a devoted disc-buying fujoshi audience. (No such audience exists for yuri, as we’ve seen time and time again.) So it’s possible future sports shows about boys with openly gay characters could do well. But there’s already a pretty good track record in recent years of sports shows about boys doing well, even when it’s just subtext and shipping. Tennis no Ouji-sama was a huge force for a long time, then we got Oofuri, and after a lull of some years, the scene exploded with Kurobas, Haikyuu, Free, and Yowapedal. Even Diamond no Ace, an 8:30AM Sunday morning anime, pulled in a more-than-respectable 4.3k for the original series. If the existing fanbase for cute sporty boys did not exist, then you could certainly make the argument YOI would have been overlooked completely.

              All that said, the importance of YOI isn’t just whether a gay couple boosted its sales, it’s maybe moreso the reverse: that a successful show had a gay couple at its core, and does not seem to be suffering at all for it (in fact, it seems to be helping, a lot). Again, I think this is really more of a M-M thing and we won’t see it with F-F any time soon (especially when we get Citrus and Netsuzou Trap as our representatives ::sighs for the 10,000th time::), but for M-M at least it’s surely a positive sign. Just absolutely not an instant slam dunk for any and all shows that want a gay couple at the helm.

              • musouka says:

                Hmm, I think assuming the bulk of YoI’s appeal stems from the popularity of sports anime is slightly misguided. YoI doesn’t follow the “keys” of what I think most sports anime have written into them–namely that they focus on a large variety and group of men in a competitive setting that provides an excuse for “passionate relationships.” Or to put it very simply, similar to idol shows aimed at men, the breadth of your appeal is written into the very nature of the show.

                YoI lives and dies by the complex relationship between its two central characters. It’s really fascinating to me to see how it manages to be both overt about how in love both of them are, while still appealing to fujoshi sensibilities through its careful use of privacy and interpersonal misunderstandings. The love is clear as day, the status of their relationship as clear as mud, and both of those things have an in-universe effect on the characters.

                Even the sports are really about their relationships. As Yuuri gears up for the GPF, it’s not about the “day he meets his rival on the ice” or the even “the day of competition.” It’s about his desire to show his passion for the thing he and Victor made together, to show that his–their–love is worthy of gold.

                It’s honestly absolutely fascinating. I’ve never seen a show quite like it–even if Free obviously laid the groundwork for a “sports series not actually about sports”, YoI outstrips it in every measurable way except for quality of animation.

                • CNL899 says:

                  It was marketed as a sports anime though, with a large cast of pretty boys on the cover at least. (Though most of them didn’t get any screen time whatsoever) My hope, M-M relationships aside, is that maybe some of the sports anime will make a move out of high school and into professional sports, which I find more fitting for the genre anyway. Most sports anime comes from shounen manga though, which may limit some of a potential “YoI effect”. You do make a good point though. Maybe sports anime directly aimed at girls is more of a “cute boys doing cute things” show than a shounen sports series.

                  • musouka says:

                    Yes, that’s definitely true as well. I wouldn’t accuse YoI on trying to AVOID sales, and there was definitely a playing with expectations in the marketing to at least get audience eyes to the screen, but getting eyes there is just one thing. If people hadn’t liked the obviously small, personal nature of the set up (we’re in Yuuri’s head for the majority of the show and it’s very much about his insecurities as a person and as a performer) then it’s just as easy for them to tune out as it was for them to tune in.

                    I think women like both types of shows, but YoI is sort of the platonic ideal in a lot of respects. It combines the excitement of watching ice skating (those falls, man!) with the character emphasis I want. Like, was the swimming in Free ever exciting? No, not really. Beautiful marvel of animation, sure. But not the same pang I feel when I imagine Yuuri failing his goal.

                    YoI is a personal story. Most sports anime are personal vignettes. It’s not that one is bad and the other is good, it’s that they’re trying to accomplish different things.

                • something
                  something says:

                  I can’t comment on its execution without watching it and you’d definitely understand its appeal better than I would. I do however think that basic premise and genre were crucial in generating the critical mass of viewers/hype needed for it to ever have a chance (which isn’t something that diminishes its accomplishments).

                  Premise never creates success, but getting into the hands of a hungry fanbase at least means you’ve at least got a shot. YOI took that shot, and hit the bullseye. It did it with steady aim and skill for sure. It’s just, many shows are never even given a target to shoot at (RIP Flip Flappers ;_;), or get one the size of a pea. Meanwhile, YOI was right behind Utapri in its first day of solicitation at Animate, and within 10 days started trouncing it. It’s never looked back.

                  I don’t at all intend for this to diminishes the show, or strip away its creative team’s agency. Even at a middle of the road estimate, it’s on track to be the best-selling sports anime in history. Whatever leg up the devoted, and more importantly disc-buying, audience for sports anime about men gave it can only explain some part of its success. If it surpasses (or even matches) Free it obviously did something huge that even the first seasons of Kurobas and Haikyuu didn’t quite do.

                  I just don’t think Yamamoto/Kubo male bonding drama/romance about, I dunno, mining asteroids in space, has remotely the same odds of success as the figure skating YOI we did get.

                • Elio says:

                  Now how can we apply that and and construct a female-led sports show so male otaku will come in droves?

  3. Ejc says:

    I am glad that a dark horse appeared in the Fall 2016, because 2016’s sales as a whole was looking to be quite the disaster compared to previous years. The only guaranteed best sellers in 2016 were Love Live! Sunshine and UtaPri S4, but it looks like Yuri no Ice is a worthy competitor for UtaPri S4.

    It will be fascinating if Yuri on ice can beat UtaPri S4 or not, but I agree that it all depends on how many event ticket serial codes are bundled on UtaPri S4’s volumes.

  4. cocoa_hoto says:

    Do you think Eupho vol 1 can break 10k?

    • Progeusz says:

      Umm, he predicted vol1 to sell ~11k and 11k is above 10k, so… I guess yes?

      • cocoa_hoto says:

        No he said current estimation for Eupho vol 1 is 7468. So how is he predicting it can sell 3500 disc more?

        • something
          something says:

          Stalker predictions are always for week 1 sales. In the last table, I am giving my guesses for total lifetime sales of v1, not just wk1. And Stalker predictions can be higher or lower than actual sales (they’re just predictions after all). Just look at Yuuri On ice, which I’m guessing could hit 50k total on a wk1 estimate quite a lot lower than that.

          First/Second tables = Stalker’s numbers as of the time I posted this
          Third table = My guesses, using Stalker as a base and adjusting for my expectations of over/underestimation and wk2+ sales

  5. Anonymous says:

    If you knew that Touken Ranbu’s Amazon exclusive edition were not being tracked by Stalker, would that change in any way your vol 1 and average estimate for it? Both are currently ranking in the 300s.

    • something
      something says:

      That would indeed change things at least a little! Stalker has gotten kinda bad lately about missing some versions of a release in its tracking. (Whether their fault or something wonky on Amazon’s end, I don’t know.) I meant to check if any of these titles were similarly affected but didn’t get around to it.

      But when I say “at least a little’ I definitely mean “a little”. If they’re only in the 300s during release week, they’re probably a very small portion of its overall sales at Amazon. My guess (in the last table) already has Tourabu doubling its wk1 estimate and then adding a another 3k or so after that, so I might not actually raise that number. But I would say Stalker missing the Amazon version makes Tourabu underperforming my guess seem a lot less likely.

      Thanks for pointing that out.

      • Anonymous says:

        I’m really curious about Touken Ranbu. I have to imagine that nearly all the buyers play the netgame which is hosted by DMM. And I’ve seen that Touken Ranbu has been in the top 3 at DMM webstore for the entire time. But I’m not sure how many people purchase things on the DMM webstore in general. Anime never seems to rank all that well there compared to other webstores that Stalker tracks (other than Rakuten) so it’s a bit of a question mark for me in terms of how much it will be underestimated by Stalker for various reasons.

        • something
          something says:

          Kancolle was also super dominant at DMM, and Stalker was close on it overall (0.9% off on v1 BD in fact). So DMM doesn’t necessarily mean heavy underestimation a la Animate. But of course, Kancolle wasn’t an Animate-focused title, and had way better Amazon rankings (thus underestimation would be less likely) so I grant it’s a pretty poor comparison.

          I suppose what you could say is that since it does well at Animate *and* DMM, that’s just all the more reason to expect heavy underestimation. But the Animate part of that is probably the more important one.

  6. Yaoi-Senpai says:

    OMG I SWEAR I WILL CRY IF YOI SOLD MORE THAN 50k T_T
    I just want YOI to be the most sold sport anime. >_<

    Anyway, let's talk from the start.

    I won't feel sad if Utapri S4 sold less because S4 was so poorly, the anime was so bad, songs was boring, nothing was interesting in the show, I feel so bad since Utapri was my fav idol anime. But now I think Ensemble Stars is way more better than Utapri. :(

    FOR Tokuen Ranbu: Hanamaru, I thought it will sell more than YOI, but I'm sure it's impossible. Tokuen Ranbu is popular but not Hanamaru. I will be so happy if the anime sell more than 10k copies. Can't wait for the reply TR on January.

    LASTLY YOI, GOD PLEASE MAKE MY WISH COME TRUE, JUST MORE THAN 40k PLEASE GOD!!! T_T
    Yuri on ice!!! definitely the best male fanservice I've ever watched. The plot, the songs and the characters relationship, EVERYTHING IS WELL DONE. I'm so happy to see these kinds of anime excist. Kubo sensei, thank you so much for creating it.

    • Yaoi-Senpai says:

      I forgot to ask if Utapri S4, Hanamaru and YOI will sell normally or with an event ticket? :O

      • something
        something says:

        All three series have event tickets. Utapri in v1 (edit: oh, and v2 apparently, I’d missed that), YOI in v1 and v2, Tourabu in v1 (edit2: and in v2 as well for this one! So they all have two. Maybe I should up my Tourabu final average guess a little… I’ll bump it from 12k to 14k).

        Utapri has a very large event ticket effect.

        Season 1
        Event ticket vols (1, 7): 26,980 avg
        Non-ticket vols (2-6): 13,525 average

        Season 2
        Event ticket vols (1): 65,465
        Non-ticket vols (2-7): 28,495 average

        Season 3
        Event ticket vols (1-2): 55,526
        Non-ticket vols (3-6): 25,540 average

        The event ticket volumes sell double or more what the non-ticket volumes do.

        Tourabu and YOI will also sell quite a lot more for their event ticket volumes than their non-ticket volumes, but I don’t think the difference will be as big. Utapri tickets were for a full-on concert with a super-popular idol group.

        YOI v1 is estimated at 31,426. Down a bit from this post when v1 was ranking top 5, though I won’t be surprised if it gets a big bump again in the next 24 hours given an episode just aired.

        v3, the first volume without an event ticket, is estimated at 29,778, barely below v1. Now in truth, it will not actually get that close to v1. v1 will have a longer tail and a stronger underestimation, and v3’s estimate is inflated by its release being more than two months away. It won’t be ranking where it is now for every day of those two months, so that estimate will gradually drop over time. After v1 comes out, the other volumes will settle down until they each get near their respective release dates.

        Nonetheless, it’s not like v3’s estimate is way down at like 15k or whatever. So it might hold on with a pretty reasonable drop for a show aimed at women with an event ticket. It’s not going to be an Utapri-like drop. Not unless v1 just completely blows up the universe and pulls an Osomatsu-san, in which case even a huge drop would still mean an even better average than we’re expecting.

        • Yaoi-Senpai says:

          UTAPRI CANT DO ANYTHING WITHOUT AN EVENT TICKETS T_T
          So sad, don’t know what to say. I will put my hopes up for YOI and Hanamaru.

          I always ask myself if that “event ticket” never excist in anime sales, what will happened to anime franchise. I’m sure most of the studio will get bankrupt. Which is sad.

          Anyway, thanks for the info :)

          • something
            something says:

            Selling in the mid-high 20s is definitely doing something! Utapri was a big title regardless, the event tickets just boosted its sales from “great” to “greater”.

            It’s hard to talk about the importance of event tickets without discussing the importance of the events themselves. Sought-after events create the demand for event tickets, not the other way around, of course. But regardless, the number of shows that get HUGE boosts from event tickets is quite small. For plenty of other shows, an event ticket application might drive, say, 20% extra sales for one volume (which is just a few percent of total sales across 6 or 7 volumes). They’re nice, but they’re not fundamentally vital to success for the vast majority of shows.

            Even if Utapri didn’t push an extra 20-30k BDs with an event ticket, it’d still be selling normal concert tickets to a sold out concert. Insofar as some (many?) event ticket applications in anime volumes still require you to purchase the ticket itself even if you get into the lottery, yeah the committee benefits from double-dipping on fans.

            Unquestionably, it’s a nice source of extra revenue for some shows. But I don’t think it’s game-changing for the industry. The popularity of the events themselves is the real win.

            • hpulley says:

              Don’t forget that most people who buy concert tickets… who bought a disc for a lottery ticket… also spend as much or more on concert merch, King Blade lights, shirts, hats, towels, sweat bands, signature/picture boards, snacks, etc. It’s all just a snowball effect in the multimedia projects, once you get the fans you keep giving them stuff they want and they’ll usually keep buying it, with some interest fall-off over time of course unless you are one of the rare projects where it increases instead to a crescendo, before heading back down to earth.

  7. Whocares says:

    Yuri on Ice! won’t sell 40K. Mark my words, everyone.

    • something
      something says:

      Average? Sure, I don’t think many people expect a 40k average. It’s not impossible, but it is a higher end scenario.

      Vol. 1? Sub-40k is completely within the realm of possibility, albeit not the most likely scenario. It’ll end with about a 30k estimate, and only needs to overperform by 33% to hit 40k week 1, let alone total. 33% would be a very low amount of underestimation for an all-#1-at-Animate-all-the-time series.

      The overwhelming strength of the Amazon-exclusive LE over the normal LE at Amazon, and the fact that YOI’s rankings at other specialty retailers aren’t on the same level as at Animate are the two factors that could certainly prevent it from selling as much as it in theory might. The latter is probably not very important: Amazon and Animate utterly dwarf every other retailer in importance. The former could be quite significant. Without the Amazon-exclusive LE its possible its estimate might be much lower. Perhaps even 15-20k? Granted, in that case many sales would shift to Animate and underestimation would be higher, but how much higher? There’s also the fact that Utapri has been the yardstick this season, and our measurement of it might be off if it’s dropped more than expected from its previous entries.

  8. Rederoin says:

    Another season with shows in the top i’m not watching :_;(Only watching Haikyuu and drifters out of the 10k+’ers).

    Hoping for a verrrrrryyyyyy maybe Kobayashi-san next season, not a fan its done by Kyoani, but it increases it chances of doing good on BD… however that much is worth.

    • something
      something says:

      I’m going to import 8 shows (dropped lostorage and skipping Natsume to buy more Flip Flappers) and I don’t think any of them are going to average even 3k. Maaaaybe Vivid Strike will get there, but not by much. It’s such a disaster.

  9. Chad says:

    What about Hibike Euphonium 2? How do you think it will do?

  10. Ayumi says:

    @someanithing

    Is YURI ON ICE’s soundtrack on track to become the best selling soundtrack of the year? It debuted at #4 even with so much competition from the mainstream girl groups, boybands, selling at least 10k on its FIRST DAY. (Final Fantasy soundtrack debuted today at #8)

    Do you know what’s the best selling anime CD soundtracks in 2016?

    Thanks!

    • something
      something says:

      http://www20.atwiki.jp/keroro00innovator/pages/3179.html

      351,811 – 君の名は。

      Unsurprisingly, it’s the unstoppable monster, Kimi no Na wa.

      Putting aside super mainstream stuff:

      22,728 – KING OF PRISM by PrettyRhythm Song&Soundtrack
      22,204 – 劇場版ガールズ&パンツァー オリジナルサウンドトラック

      Note the Garupan soundtrack actually came out in November last year, so the above is just its 2016 sales. Its total sales are 32,812

      First one that isn’t a movie would be Kancolle, though I’m pretty sure the below is actually tied to the game, not specifically the anime, because I see different OSTs listed that explicitly mark themselves as TVアニメーション:

      20,486 – 艦隊これくしょん -艦これ- Original Sound Track III 雲

      So the first one definitely related to a TV series is SAO:

      20,323 – ソードアート・オンライン ミュージックコレクション

      Kimi no Na wa. aside, if YOI only needs to beat the low 20s to take the top spot, I suppose there’s a very good chance it will do that.

      • Ayumi says:

        Thank you! I was just relieved to see that the YOI soundtrack didn’t underperform like the YOI ending single did a few weeks ago. Can’t wait to see how the DVD/BD sells in two weeks! I’d be happy with 28k first week so anything above that will be awesome.

        • something
          something says:

          It’ll be really interesting to see how the final episode affects it, with release just over a week away. The estimate taken during its ep 10 peak has cooled down to 27,381 now from over 33,000. Highest ranked version was dropping to around #50.

          The very beginnings of its finale bump started in the most recent hourly update. Amazon-exclusive LE BD from 48 → 40, normal LE BS from 96 → 83, DVDs from 125 → 107 and 205 → 187. Now we jusrt wait and see how high it goes, and for how long.

          Needless to say, it’s never dropped at Animate at all. It’s held the top 13, 14, or 15 spots there (depending on how many different versions of v1 were beating Utapri for the day, alongside every normal BD and DVD edition) every day the past week.

          • Ayumi says:

            I just checked the amazon ranking and YOI is #1 on the anime only chart and #16 overall chart. The rest of the volumes are rising. Is this jump considered “amazing” or just “standard” after a hit show finishes its run?

            I have never had a “favorite” show of mine (other than Madoka) become a super mega hit so YOI dominating the charts gives me so much life! I’m just glad a risky project got so much support.

            • something
              something says:

              #16 overall (anime-only charts don’t really matter) is certainly very good, especially when there are four different versions of v1 in the top 100. It’s not getting as big of a boost as episode 10 did, but it’s a really strong finish anyway.

              • CNL899 says:

                Episode 10 had those stock issues too

                • something
                  something says:

                  Part of the ep 10 bump was the Amazon-exclusive edition going back up for order, yes. Though that spike started about 11PM Monday night JST, while ep 10 aired about 2AM Thursday morning. It had dropped to #12 in between there, then shot back up to a peak of #3. It got some help, but the episode probably drove most of it, especially since it held top 10 until Sunday.

  11. Yaoi-Senpai says:

    Because of the Last episode of YOI, the songs tops at 1st rank in Japanese album (in JP iTunes) and IVE SEEN IT TRENDING AMERICAN ITUNES! I can’t believe, since I can’t buy the album, I will purchase it from iTunes.

    I can’t wait for the sales.

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