18
Jan
To find data, please use the Table of Contents

Schedule
Regarding when you should expect to see this site updated, I’ll follow roughly this schedule:

Tuesday, 3-4AM EST (UTC-4/5) – Preliminary DVD30/50 + BD20/20 ranking, new post. This is very consistent, except around the holidays when Oricon skips a week.

Thursday, night EST – Full weekly DVD100 + BD100 ranking, editing previous post (so no bump). This can take until Friday; it depends when the data is released. Sometimes it’s not available at all on Thursdays, occasionally it even takes until the weekend, but Thursday is most common. Obviously if the initial ful list doesn’t come out until Friday, this would happen Friday evening instead. I usually get to it after I get home from work, whichever day it is.

Weekend, any time – Whole set of rankings updated as appropriate (seasonal vol 1s, yearly averages, yearly per-volume, series quick view, BD boxes), at some point over the weekend when I have time. This will go in a new post, with a summary of links to everything I updated that day. Lately I’ve been doing this every two weeks instead of weekly, mostly due to being tired and lazy.

I will also do some unscheduled posts if I just want to talk about something I’ve observed and or find interesting or noteworthy.

Mid-year rankings tend to come out in late June or early July. Full yearly rankings come out late January. Monthly rankings come out near the end of each month and go in the ranking summary posts.

General Discussion
Also, since I don’t see any reason to set up a forum just for sales discussion, I think we can use this post as a catch-all for any sales-related comments you have that don’t fit in one of the specific posts.

Comments on daily rankings, comments on preorder rankings, general questions, that sort of thing.

1,214 Responses to “Posting Schedule and Open Discussion”

  1. something something says:

    Nice little revival for Gochiusa v1 on Amazon at the moment!

    In the past 8 hours it’s jumped from 1,390 to 53. Amazon is predicting 1-2 months until restock, and while it’s never actually that long this does certainly imply it only missed a wk4 ranking due to stock issues.

    Hopefully we’ll see it rank again and claim that 11k mark and maybe more. This long tail of sales is likely going to make the dropoff, especially for v3, look a bit worse than expected. But if the only reason your drop is bigger is because early volumes sold more than expected, that’s not so bad! Hell until recently I was just going to be elated if any volume sold more than 7k.

    In other news until just the past 12 hours or so (when a bunch of new stuff got solicited), the Mouretsu movie was holding strong in the top 5 for about 3 days straight. I still don’t expect it to sell very well and I bet it’ll be overestimated, but I’m nonetheless glad it wasn’t dead on arrival.

  2. something something says:

    I’m trying out a caching plugin to speed things up. I don’t think you’ll see much difference the first time you load a page but if you check the page again it should be much faster (uh, sometimes, it seems… inconsistent). At least until you clear your cache or whatever.

    Most of the recommendations for speeding things up were over my head, but this one seems to have helped, I guess? We’ll see how it goes long term.

    It did force me to use permalinks which changed URLs, but oh well. Old links will of course still re-direct.

  3. Avatar Anon says:

    Looks like 2ch is at it again, this season’s victim: Sabagebu.

    • something something says:

      An event ticket was announced, nothing untoward is happening here. We haven’t had any preorder trolling in a while.

      • Avatar Anon says:

        Is a 1400 positions jump that common after an event ticket announcement? Tokyo Ghoul (which also seems to be more popular than Sabagebu) announced the event ticket five days ago but the jump was more gradual (and it only got notorious yesterday when both BD and DVD got close to the top 100).

        And I see Rail Wars too:
        【2014年 07月 25日 07時(金)】 **1,994位
        【2014年 07月 25日 08時(金)】 ***,140位
        【2014年 07月 25日 09時(金)】 ***,*84位
        【2014年 07月 25日 10時(金)】 ***,*65位

        • something something says:

          Yes, it’s very easy to jump that much because ranking is very… oh I’m going to use the wrong term here, but, logarithmic, I guess you’d say?

          In other words the difference between #1 and #10 is MUCH MUCH bigger than the difference between #10 and #100 which is MUCH MUCH bigger than the difference between #100 and #1000. This is why Stalker’s point awards reflect this, with #1 being 2400 and dropping to about 700 even by #4-5 and by the time you’re down around #70 you’re maybe 80 points. Out of hundreds of thousands of potential ranks. So like, ranking 300,000th and 30,000th may be a difference between selling 0 and 1 copies in a day, or even 0 and 0 (the 30k would have just sold one more recently than the 300k).

          It would be less obvious for Tokyo Ghoul because the jump is split between DVD and BD, while Sabagebu is BD-only so 100% of the jump was concentrated in one edition. With the way rankings and points work, getting a DVD and BD to rank together around 100 is roughly equivalent to having a single edition rank at about #30.

          tl;dr a jump from >1000 to the top 100 temporarily after a ticket/ova/bonus manga/etc announcement isn’t too tough. I’m guessing something similar happened to Rail Wars as well but haven’t looked into it. (Not that it’s impossible some goofy trolls might have resurrected but for the most part that’s really died down).

          • Avatar Anon says:

            Very informative, I completely ignored the fact Sabagebu was a BD only release. Thank you very much, I will look more into this.

  4. Avatar Anon says:

    昨日とーるくんとも話してたのですが、世間での売り上げ認知と実数は結構乖離しているみたいですね。 いなり は1万枚近く売り上げてるらしいし デアラ2は2万枚位との事。 状況の中でのハードルとプレッシャーは凄く有りましたが本当に良かった。

    https://twitter.com/moTYOrm/status/494509911439450113/photo/1

    • something something says:

      I looked into this comment and the tweet it links a bit and ran it by kvin as well, and it’s a tweet from a director/animator who was involved in Inari Konkon and Date A Live, both Kadokawa properties.

      He’s claiming that Inari sold 10k and Date a Live II 20k so far.

      Obviously this raises a bunch of other questions, like “does he mean v1 or average or total units?” (seems to imply average!) and “does he mean shipped or sold?” and “is it even correct?”.

      We obviously know that Oricon is NOT reporting total sales. Real sales will always be higher than what Oricon reports, and this has always been the case. See https://www.someanithing.com/167

      Oricon is useful to compare shows to one another and not nearly as much as a way to calculate the actual total earnings of a series. It’s why I’m wary about using Oricon sales numbers vs reported industry costs of anime production to say “covered costs” or not. You’re comparing a portion of sales to an actual production cost.

      But we’ve also got a number of cases where we’ve been able to compare Oricon reports to official distributor claims, and while there have been big gaps (quite notably Haruhi), they’ve never been anything like what is claimed here. Double at most.

      Inari Konkon averaged 1,653. DVDs never ranked, but assume Oricon would put them around 300, then round up the Oricon total to about 2,000.

      That’s five times less than what is mentioned here, and even if real sales were double what Oricon reported and the 10k is it’s shipped rather than sold, would they really ship so much more than demand? Heck that’s more than the 3x claimed by a noitaminA producer for Nodame, which would have vastly more mainstream appeal than a Kadokawa light novel adaptation.

      It’s mysterious, at any rate! I do wish these claims came with some sources and clarifications and could be backed up with context!

      • I found something similar regarding Chrono Crusade – an interview in an American magazine where Gonzo’s marketing manager claimed the series’ first volume had gotten 20,000 preorders on DVD as of March, killing the DVD/BD wiki figures: http://wp.me/p3dDlR-14j

        Looked into it a bit, but was never able to find a second source for it. Still, it’s funky. I would be interested to see more distributor claims for smaller-scale late-night series.

        Side question: How much do DVD/BDs cost to press in Japan? I believe it was something like 1$/DVD, 4$/BD in the US, but I don’t know if it’s different over there.

        • something something says:

          In that case, I can allllllmost believe it. 2003 was basically the dark ages as far as Oricon reporting goes, and maybe we can assume he mis-spoke or spoke too generally, and “preorders” is really more like “the amount we planned to produce based on the level of interest we’d seen to that point”. Still, it being preorders (the thing Oricon should be best suited to count) is the really crazy part.

          No idea about DVD/BD replication costs in Japan. Think I’ve seen it posted once before in one of the Mania threads but wouldn’t be able to find it even if those still existed.

      • Avatar Anon says:

        I read on 2ch about this tweet some days ago and the general conclusion (given there’s no source to director/animator’s claims) is that it was the number of units manufactured for those first volumes (perhaps the total of units requested by retailers) but by no means it was the number of discs sold (nobody could really believe Inari’s first volume sold 10K).
        There was a bunch of interesting data in that thread regarding the number of units manufactured for big sellers (like Bakemonogatari, Madoka, SEED etc) but I don’t really know how to find a source about it, doesn’t sound like (to me) a manufacturer would make regularly public those numbers.

        • something something says:

          Yeah I’ve been capturing info like that when I see it with a decent source. For Madoka, Bake, and some other comparisons between Oricon reports and distributor claims, see https://www.someanithing.com/167

          Distributors are generally only going to make shipment/sales claims when something performed exceptionally well, like all the titles in that list!

  5. Avatar stardf29 says:

    So, today on Unexpected Anime (Full TV Season) Sequels, Kamisama Hajimemashita.

    Did it get a big manga boost or something? I mean, a 2.8k average isn’t particularly bad, but probably not enough to justify a sequel in and of itself…

    • It went from 2 week totals of like 40k to ~120k-140k, actually a little better than Chihayafuru by the same metric. I actually had an exchange 3 weeks ago to the effect that it was the kind of thing we’d expect to see a sequel of if print boosts of a sufficient size were strong rather than weak sequel indicators. The news is still surprising, but it carries fun implications about what might get continued in the future.

    • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

      I’m no way a good data collector but this is what I got for KamiHaji:

      Kamisama Hajimemashita!

      Volume 11: 28,342(3 days)(failed to rank in second week, sold less than 22,696 copies)
      Volume 13: 37,075(4 days) (failed to rank in second week, sold less than 20,782 copies)
      (Anime starts)
      Volume 14: 43,735(3 days) (failed to rank in second week, sold less than 24,536 copies)
      Volume 15: 111,607(12 days)
      Volume 16: 92,226(5 days (failed to rank in second week, sold less than 27,893 copies)
      volume 17: 142,572(14 days)
      About 100k boost. As you can see, this is an example of a delayed boost in sales. If you take the boost from volume 14, there’s almost no boost at all! But then then, look at volume 16 and 17!

      So, its getting a second season because of its manga boost? Whatever it is, I’m over the moon right now as a shoujo fan.

      • Avatar mk03 says:

        Wait: it’s getting a second season? Kind of cool given that I saw it air on Animax Asia a few months ago.
        Also, 2.8k isn’t too good, but it’s a shoujo series, so expectations are somewhat lower. If anything, at least it did better than the likes of Maid-sama and Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun.

  6. Avatar Deem says:

    kamisama sets new second season because magazine Hana to Yume 40th anniversary
    like Akatsuki no Yona and The World is Still Beautiful

  7. Avatar Anon says:

    I just noticed Stalker reseted all the Nico pre-orders, not like they matter but I wonder what happened.

  8. something something says:

    Oh there you are, Free! Eternal Summer event tickets.

    *26位 Free! -Eternal Summer- (3) [DVD]
    *28位 Free! -Eternal Summer- (4) [DVD]
    *55位 Free! -Eternal Summer- (3) [Blu-ray]
    *57位 Free! -Eternal Summer- (4) [Blu-ray]

    Only just announced so these will probably go higher.

    Also, volumes 3 and 4? That’s… that’s weird! Just think of how big the v4→v5 drop will look now, lol. It’ll be like comparing a v1 directly to a v5.

    I have no idea if this sort of approach increases or decreases sales compared to earlier tickets. On the one hand, maybe people buying v3-4 for the tickets will figure “might as well buy 1-2 too”? On the other hand, will a v3-4 ticket really get nearly the attention of a v1-2 ticket? Free!’s event ticket boost with a v2-3 ticket wasn’t that big for season one, though it was obviously noticeable, and this is even weirder timing than that.

    Edit: Oh, and vol 7 is confirmed to have an OVA. Was easy to assume since it was the same price, but most people don’t look at that kinda thing. I totally forgot there even was a 7th volume.

    Sales for this show are gonna be weeeeeeeird.

  9. Avatar Anon says:

    I see that special Khara is doing for TV is working, 3.33 has been constantly breaking the top 100 since last week I think? I imagine it’ll probably get an even bigger bump after 4.0’s PV in a few days.
    Wonder if the other Rebuilds are getting a little boost too.

  10. something something says:

    I sometimes get sales-related questions over on ask.fm, and I guess I should start linking them here as well.

    http://ask.fm/somekindofthing/answer/118800540846

    This one isn’t anything entirely new, it’s an update on something we’ve discussed a few times already here: 2014’s seemingly depressed 10k count and what if anything it means.

    • Avatar rederoin says:

      You forgot about black butler butler III for possible 10ks for summer. It has both that amazon-only underestimation thing going on(like mahouka and SAO II) and its a series that is popular with females. It did rather well in the daily rankings, so 10k is not out of reach. But we’ll see about that tomorrow.

      • something something says:

        Kuroshitsuji s2 only averaged 8.1k (a drop from 14k for s1) so I was assuming this season didn’t really have a shot. The Stalker estimate was 4,337. If we assume that’ll at least get doubled (Aniplex issue AND Animate heavy, >100% underestimation ahoy) I can see v1 hitting 10k in wk2 but it should end up being too borderline to beat s2’s average let alone 10k.

        But yes I did just forget about it, and it certainly has a better shot than Aldnoah or Sailor Moon. But none of them really have much of a shot at all.

        Or who knows maybe it’ll sell more than triple its estimate and hold above 10k, I dunno.

    • Avatar rederoin says:

      Its a bit depressing if you look at the big sellers. 2012 had over 4 series hit 35k, and 2 of those hit 45k. 2013 had 3 series hit 30k. Meanwhile we only have love live in 2014. But then again, Gundam is a gaint and it could even destroy love live, and F/SN could also sell a lot. So who knows? But unless Autumn has a dark horse like 2012 did with GuP, we won’t see 4 series hit 30k-35k+.

      • Avatar Ejc says:

        Gundam would have to sell above 70K on average to beat Love Live!, if they do bundle another event ticket on Vol.7. That is Gundam SEED Destiny levels, from 10 years ago. Is the fanbase the same after 10 years? Even without an event ticket it’d have to sell above 60K average. If we go back to a recent Gundam series that actually sold well, we have Gundam 00 in 2007/2008… but that wouldn’t be enough.

        Fate stay/night does have a high chance of selling a lot, but again it’d have to do much much better than Fate/Zero to have a chance to beat Love Live! Had KanColle been in Fall 2014… then perhaps we could’ve seen at least 4 sellers of 35k+.

        • Avatar Ejc says:

          As expected, Vol.7 does have an event ticket. Shot from 112 to 7, and now 2. No idea how it’ll end up selling, because this ticket is for the 2015 Fan Meeting Tour, rather than another concert at the SSA. However, Vol.7 could potentially sell a ton as well as a result.

          **2位/**7位 ★ (*13,613 pt) [*,114予約] 14/12/25 ラブライブ! 2nd Season 7 (特装限定版)(μ’sイベントチケット最速先行抽選申込券付) [Blu-ray]

    • something something says:

      So Nozaki-kun went and exploded and suddenly we’ve very likely got one of those surprise 10k+ titles for 2014.

      v1 ought to sell at least 15k total with any storefront boost, possibly more. v2+ shouldn’t drop too badly on BD, and while DVD could halve it won’t be that big a deal.

      So we’re currently looking at:
      Winter – 1 definite
      Spring – 2 definite, 3 borderline
      Summer – 2 definite, 1 likely, 2 borderline
      Fall – 2 definite?, ?? others

      It’ll really come down to the wire for Gochiusa, Mahouka, and Jojo from Spring. Which also shows how focusing on 10ks is a bit silly – if they average 9,328 instead of 10,201 (or whatever!), that’s such a small difference it’s hardly useful for evaluating an entire industry’s performance for a year. 10k is just an arbitrary threshold. It’s handy shorthand, but shouldn’t be taken overly seriously.

      • Avatar Anon says:

        Amazing, really, I knew the first volume was going to break the top 10 but I wasn’t expecting it to stay hours in the second position (while the rest of the volumes are in the top 30!). Read some japs in >Yaraon comparing it with WORKING’s performance, some of them are sure the first volume will sell more than 20K.

        I’m really surprised, I can’t wait for the actual numbers next week.

  11. Avatar rederoin says:

    >2 borderline

    P4GA and Aldnoah I assume?

    • something something says:

      Yeah. P4GA v2’s DVD estimate is down from 2k to 1.2k, and BD is down 5.9k to 4.3k compared to v1. It should be heavily underestimated again so that’s not necessarily a death-blow to its 10k chances. But it’s definitely borderline unless it’s really consistent.

      Aldnoah is has had a major gap between its Amazon and non-Amazon rankings, more than any other decent ranking title excluding those aimed at women. Add on the final episode bump and 5.5k estimate could honestly get around 10k total. But it’d have to hold on to that, which is why it’s so borderline.

  12. something something says:

    http://www3.atchs.jp/test/read.cgi/urisure/1358138212/623

    Bizarro daily rankings up today, a day before pre-sale due to holidays in Japan.

    Obviously this can’t be all stores reporting, considering it doesn’t match how things are likely to end up. I’d love to know which stores did report today – has to be mostly online, B&Ms wouldn’t have sold much of anything yet.

    Anyway dailies are going to be a mess this week.

    • Avatar hpulley says:

      It is annoying, my package has ‘shipped’ but is sitting in Japan due to the fall equinox holiday… sigh.

      But in good news… it seems Kinmoza season 2 must be coming soon! They seem to be soliciting character song albums for the second season! Might it be in winter seeing as the albums come out in December, February and April???

      http://www.cdjapan.co.jp/product/VTZL-89
      Description
      First character song CD from the second season of anime series “Hello!! Kiniro Mosaic” features two characters. Comes with a bonus DVD. *The DVD disc is encoded for region 2 (Japan, Europe, and Middle East), and no subtitles are included.

      December 2014:

      Description in Japanese
      きんいろモザイク キャラクターCD Music Palette 1 [DVD付初回限定盤] / 忍(CV: 西明日香)、アリス(CV: 田中真奈美)
      TVアニメ第2期シリーズ『ハロー!! きんいろモザイク』の放送スタートに先駆け、2人ずつの新曲をカップリングしたキャラクターCDの隔月3枚のリリースが決定!! 両A面シングル(ボーカルトラック2曲)+カラオケの計4曲収録。初回限定盤は、Web限定コンテンツ「きゅんいろモザイク」を収録したDVD付き。

      http://www.cdjapan.co.jp/product/VTZL-90

      February:
      Description
      Second character song CD from the second season of anime series “Hello!! Kiniro Mosaic” features two characters. Comes with a bonus DVD. *The DVD disc is encoded for region 2 (Japan, Europe, and Middle East), and no subtitles are included.
      Description in Japanese
      きんいろモザイク キャラクターCD Music Palette 2 [DVD付初回限定盤] / 綾(CV: 種田梨沙)、陽子(CV: 内山夕実)
      TVアニメ第2期シリーズ『ハロー!! きんいろモザイク』の放送スタートに先駆け、2人ずつの新曲をカップリングしたキャラクターCDの隔月3枚のリリースが決定!! 両A面シングル(ボーカルトラック2曲)+カラオケの計4曲収録。初回限定盤はDVD付き。

      http://www.cdjapan.co.jp/product/VTZL-91

      April:
      Description
      Third character song CD from the second season of anime series “Hello!! Kiniro Mosaic” features two characters. Comes with a bonus DVD. *The DVD disc is encoded for region 2 (Japan, Europe, and Middle East), and no subtitles are included.
      Description in Japanese
      きんいろモザイク キャラクターCD Music Palette 3 [DVD付初回限定盤] / カレン(CV: 東山奈央)、穂乃花(CV: 諏訪彩花)
      TVアニメ第2期シリーズ『ハロー!! きんいろモザイク』の放送スタートに先駆け、2人ずつの新曲をカップリングしたキャラクターCDの隔月3枚のリリースが決定!! 両A面シングル(ボーカルトラック2曲)+カラオケの計4曲収録。初回限定盤はDVD付き。

      • something something says:

        Hmmm would we see two Manga Time adaptations in the same season? Maybe. Hope it doesn’t cannibalize Koufuku’s sales.

        • Avatar hpulley says:

          Though checking the news officially it says the character song CDs are before the broadcast so that would indicate spring instead, starting in April after the third CD.

          • Avatar hpulley says:

            And in fact says so in the Japanese above as well… just too excited to read all of it. 放送スタートに先駆け。。。

    • Avatar Anonymous says:

      “Bizarro” even further is that Aldnoah went from rank 5 on BD yesterday to not even ranking at all today.

  13. Avatar rederoin says:

    somekindofthing i’ve always been curious, but why is world of golden eggs not included in the all-time top sellers of anime?

    • something something says:

      It doesn’t really seem relevant to our interests here. Some sites include it, some don’t, but normally when people talk about anime sales it gets left out due to being a mainstream thing with little connection to the kind of anime that usually ranks. It’s like the many mainstream short anime we never hear of and that I don’t track… only difference is this one sold a shit-ton for some reason.

  14. something something says:

    Just a heads up about the Strike Witches OVA: expect a gargantuan overestimation.

    1. 134 hours straight at #1 so far, ~18k points combined in less than a week, being super skewed by a lack of competition in new solicitations and no big mainstream concerts (which usually have the handy side effect of keeping anime out of the top 1-2 spots most of the time, preventing runaway point accumulation for most series.

    2. Amazon version actually comes with a very nice extra for once, a drama CD. Something people will actually want!

    3. The movie a couple years back also had an Amazon version that got most of the points, and the combined BD estimate was overestimated by 47%. Which is truly massive for an overestimation.

    So my rule of thumb for this OVA is, whatever Stalker says, plan on cutting that in half to get a more realistic ballpark.

    It’ll still do really well, maybe even sell near its movie’s level, but it is very unlikely to do anything like what Amazon rankings will imply.

  15. Avatar Anon says:

    >ラブライブ! 2nd Season 7 (特装限定版)(μ’sイベントチケット最速先行抽選申込券付) [Blu-ray]

    And, kind of as expected, the last volume of Love Live comes with another ticket lottery! Also a code for the Vita game, I think?

    It’s gonna be hard to predict its final average now.

    • Avatar Ejc says:

      Vol.1~6 already have Vita game serial codes. However, the game is actually out now! I also read somewhere on 2ch that the combined sales of all the 3 games was 76k total, so game only buyers may have more confidence to pop some money into the BDs now.

      That’s true, if it sells around 100K again for Vol.7 then the average would be close to 70k, however if the amount of lottery places is even less than for the 2015 SSA concert, then we may see even crazier numbers for Vol.7

      • something something says:

        This is where comparing show to show ascends to a new plane of silliness. It’s goofy to have it averaging as much as SEED Destiny or Madoka or theoretically approaching Bake when its normal volumes (which already have an asston of top tier extras) would put its average closer to 54-55k. Now it could easily average somewhere between 68-74k.

        Extras have always caused differences, but it’s been a couple thousand to the average at most even for rather successful shows. Working’s massively inflated v1 (32.4k vs 18.1k v2) only ended up increasing the average by ~2k. Even the legendary Nana v1 only mattered for ~3.5k. Obviously a bigger seller will have a bigger boost in absolute terms (and Nana is bigger percentage-wise), but when you’re talking 12-20 thousand you might as well not be looking at the same industry anymore.

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