18
Jan
To find data, please use the Table of Contents

Schedule
Regarding when you should expect to see this site updated, I’ll follow roughly this schedule:

Tuesday, 3-4AM EST (UTC-4/5) – Preliminary DVD30/50 + BD20/20 ranking, new post. This is very consistent, except around the holidays when Oricon skips a week.

Thursday, night EST – Full weekly DVD100 + BD100 ranking, editing previous post (so no bump). This can take until Friday; it depends when the data is released. Sometimes it’s not available at all on Thursdays, occasionally it even takes until the weekend, but Thursday is most common. Obviously if the initial ful list doesn’t come out until Friday, this would happen Friday evening instead. I usually get to it after I get home from work, whichever day it is.

Weekend, any time – Whole set of rankings updated as appropriate (seasonal vol 1s, yearly averages, yearly per-volume, series quick view, BD boxes), at some point over the weekend when I have time. This will go in a new post, with a summary of links to everything I updated that day. Lately I’ve been doing this every two weeks instead of weekly, mostly due to being tired and lazy.

I will also do some unscheduled posts if I just want to talk about something I’ve observed and or find interesting or noteworthy.

Mid-year rankings tend to come out in late June or early July. Full yearly rankings come out late January. Monthly rankings come out near the end of each month and go in the ranking summary posts.

General Discussion
Also, since I don’t see any reason to set up a forum just for sales discussion, I think we can use this post as a catch-all for any sales-related comments you have that don’t fit in one of the specific posts.

Comments on daily rankings, comments on preorder rankings, general questions, that sort of thing.

1,208 Responses to “Posting Schedule and Open Discussion”

  1. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    Wow. So Funi and crunchyroll are working together now? Will this be the consolidation of streaming that creates a single site/service/subscription for viewers? I guess Netflix is still out there and maybe hulu? But if this means potential subscribers don’t have to worry so much about which site will get which show this seems significant for consumers.

    Not sure if it could negatively impact committees (less competition for streaming rights?) who may or may not already be crunched by declining disc sales, but it seems like a win for consumers. I’m not a CR subscriber but this seems like the kind of move that could get me to consider it.

    • something something says:

      The rundown as we seem to understand it now is:

      1. They’re not merging, it’s a partnership.
      2. They’re maintaining separate sites, separate video players, separate subscriptions, etc.
      3. They’ll negotiate together, so it’s a way to make license costs less crazy.
      4. Crunchyroll will handle the simulcast subbed versions of streams.
      5. Funimation will handle simulcast dubbed versions of streams for a subset of the above shows (not every show can financially support a dub, obviously).
      6. They’ve already announced some catalog titles that are now or will soon be shared between their services (e.g. Bebop is now on CR, Free! will be getting a Funi dub).

      I don’t think we’ll see exactly how it shakes out until Fall shows start streaming but if everything goes perfectly, this essentially means Funimation getting out of subtitled streaming – which would be a dream come true. I have zero interest in dubs so if everything subbed gets handled by Crunchyroll, that’s ideal. If you don’t care about dubs, there’s zero reason to have a Funi subscription.

      It is possible of course that Japan could react by seeking alternatives, such as going to Hulu, Amazon, and Netflix more. But so far, those services don’t really have interest in the vast majority of anime. They could also push their own sites, but I get the impression Daisuki has been a complete and unsurprising failure, so I don’t think that’ll get them far. Maybe JP companies will throw a lot of stuff that way as a pressure tactic but, I dunno, that just seems a lot worse for the in the long-term. Their future is still best served going to the anime-focused companies.

      My biggest concern is whether the partnership results in any of my CR subscription money going to Funi. I really, really don’t want that to happen, given how much I loathe Funi. But I have a feeling we’ll just never know what the exact arrangement is there.

      All in all if this ends with a larger percentage of a season’s anime ending up on Crunchyroll and handled by Crunchyroll for the subbed streams, then yes it’s a definite positive for me. Especially with Wixoss coming up next season – something I want to watch, but normally wold expect Funi to get.

  2. Avatar Anon says:

    Those Shirobako’s boxes, Jesus, I wonder how long they’ll last in the top 100.

    I can’t imagine them selling a lot of units but the revenue will surely be more than decent.

  3. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    Any idea how much Netflix is paying for kuromukuro?

    • something something says:

      Not a clue, don’t think we’ve ever heard exact numbers for streaming license fees.

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Do you think it’s safe to assume it’s a hefty amount? Was gonna ask if it was enough to make up for lackluster disc sales, but looked at Stalker and I guess Kuromukuro isn’t a total bust. Could that be a new profit formula for production committees, a few thousand average sales and exclusive streaming on netflix or crunchy/funi?

        • something something says:

          I don’t think it’s safe to assume anything, no. The only hint we might have is that Netflix is the kind of company that can throw money around, so maybe they bid high, but we don’t know how much CR/Funi wanted it. I doubt many shows can ever expect to command Kabaneri’s fees (and I’d be surprised if that one paid off for Amazon). But to whatever extent, yes international streaming (not just North America but also China/east Asia) will definitely be part of the revenue stream for nearly every show.

          Discs and streaming combined are probably still a minority of most franchises’ revenue tho.

          • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

            Really? Even combined you think discs and streaming are less than half most? I mean, obviously it might vary (e.g. Kabaneri) but I find that somewhat surprising. Do you think it’s moving closer to half or more for most shows?

            Also, is it at least safe to say that a show exclusively on Netflix probably gets a more favorable deal than on CR/Funi?

  4. Avatar Anonymous says:

    It’s unlikely to come close to the perfect storm that was Love Live S2 Vol.1, but do you think that the lower price + bonuses will help Sunshine Vol.1 make a big impact? It looks like somewhere in the 40-50k range is a safe bet…

    • Avatar Ejc says:

      The price of Vol.1 is no different to Vol.1 of Love Live! S2, and the bonuses are fairly similar except there are no more mobile serial codes (there hasn’t been any at all for SunShine and Aqours)

      For your information, Love Live! S2 Vol.1 had a 59K Stalker estimate but did 82.5K week 1 in reality. If the storefront performance of Love Live! SunShine at Animate, gamers, etc, is as big as Love Live! S2 Vol.1, then with a 49.4K Stalker estimate we are looking at around 69K week 1 in reality. However, it seems like anime fans in general are buying discs far less than they used to, so this might be a bigger contributing factor. Not to mention Aqours is still nowhere near μ’s’ level of success (is there even a non-mainstream anime-related artist that is even comparable μ’s to nowadays?) when you look at the music CD sales.

      • Avatar JTaicho says:

        Was Cinderella Girls (Idolm@ster spin off) similar? Like they were not as popular as the original group? Is Idolm@ster bigger or smaller than LL! now or before? I know LL has no PS/XBOX games, but has a really popular mobile one. I wonder why LL! doesn’t get a PS/XBOX game. Not worth it?

        • something something says:

          Cinderella Girls (Deremas) sold slightly more DVD/BDs (30,329) than the original Idolmaster anime (28,912), and sells a lot more CDs overall. It has also come to dominate the original as fan output goes (fanart, doujins), so it seems to be where the Idolmaster fandom’s head is at right now. The main reason it’s eclipsing its predecessor is the mobage, which brings in enormous amounts of money and enormous amounts of reach, far in excess of what a console franchise is able to do. I think Starlight Stage was over 15 million downloads at last check? It was 10 million in Japan last December at any rate. And it’s almost always top 10 on the Japan iOS store by gross revenue, though those rankings shift a lot. That’s a revenue stream that just doesn’t exist for the original series. While Deremas doesn’t have a console game, there’s likely good reason: profit margins on mobage are going to be way higher. Japan doesn’t really buy console games anymore (tracking JP console sales is even more depressing than tracking anime sales), so I don’t see any good reason for them to spend the development money. (This is also likely the same reason you’re not seeing a LL console game).

          Original Idolmaster will probably continue as the only Imas to get console games. Platinum Stars just came out a few months ago for PS4. There is a Million Live mobage, which features the original 765 Pro idols + new idols, but it’s definitely not as big as Starlight Stage is for Deremas.

  5. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    So hypothetically speaking (and I know this is speculative) let’s say you’re a production committee, and you’re trying to figure out who to sell the online streaming rights to your tv anime series to. How would you expect to rank them? If it’s based on how much they’d pay you, who would you expect to pay the most? Would it be something like:

    Amazon
    Netflix
    Cruncy/Funi/Hulu

    Or some other order possibly?

    • something something says:

      I mean, yeah you want to go with whoever will pay the most. But since the big non-anime companies are only interested in a small percentage of shows, I don’t think the comparison really makes sense most of the time. For mot shows CR/Funi will be pretty much the only option unless the big names suddenly get more interested. Also “who will pay the most” would have to look beyond streaming minimum guarantees. If Amazon pays a bunch for streaming then does nothing with it beyond that you could lose out on money from other things like merch deals or TV airings or DVD/BDs that another company might be willing to do.

      So I think it’s just more complicated than that.

    • You’re ignoring the Chinese streaming sites as well. Those will be the ones who pay the most for a series. It’s why Crunchy can only get rights “outside of Asia” at best now.

      In general, it depends on what the international licensor wants. If they only want to sell Eng territory rights (and try to earn more by selling to more companies around the world), then they won’t accept a bid from Crunchy for “worldwide” rights, regardless of how much they’ll pay. Also, some companies want the international licensing company to buy other rights (broadcast, home video, merchandising, etc) which also cost more. There’s a lot of variables besides “we’ll pay this much for streaming.”

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Oops, didn’t know the chinese sites paid so much. Grrr, WHY CAN’T ANYTHING IN THIS INDUSTRY BE SIMPLE!!!

        So I guess what we know is:

        1. If you’re a show that gives exclusive streaming rights to Amazon (Kabaneri) it’s possible (though not guaranteed) to get a lot of money.

        2. Chinese sites pay a lot for series, so money from an English streaming site might be small by comparison.

        3. These deals can be complicated and the upfront minimum guarantee may not tell the whole story.

        4. Most shows probably don’t have much interest in the west for streaming rights besides CR/Funi. (but then why did Kuromukuro get a deal? Is this a connections thing from someone at P.A.? Are originals more likely to garner interest than adaptations?)

        SO COMPLICATED

        • Honestly, the simplest thing to do is to look at everything in a separate case. Trying to organize things into “rules” outside of generalities leads to a lot more confusion.

          Amazon dealt with one licensor and paid a lot of money for one specific set of licenses (noitaminA titles). That’s a specific case and not guaranteed to happen again. Who knows if other licensors will be willing to do something similar like that.

          2. Yes, the Chinese pay a lot for titles. SE Asia has paid a lot more back than what we know due to the language barriers. They also are able to carry more print from Japan as well, leading to a lot of “international” versions being in Chinese/Korean. It shows how small our markets are with many more fans there that are willing to financially support a lot of other mediums like print and merchandise in comparison.

          4. Different shows have different licensing situations. PA Works shows have many different international rightsholders, so saying they’re likely to work with Netflix ignores that. For Kuromukuro, Pony Canyon sold the domestic and international streaming rights to Netflix in one deal. Starchild did something similar with Knights of Sidonia (and then asked international fans if they watched episode 1 after it aired despite no legal streaming, heh). Trigger held the rights to Little Witch Academia and could sell it to them. It’s situational and we have to look at them as situational instead of “this will happen.” The marketplace itself is changing with new companies holding these rights, so older rules may not apply anymore.

          In short, what we know is what we know and that’s all we can hypothesize on. It’s better now to just reflect on how something happened instead of trying to predict and overthink something.

          • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

            Yeah I guess I was just looking for an easy way to look at who is streaming a show and categorize it easily as something like “oh this show is streaming on Amazon, the committee probably got a lot of money for that” but I guess that would be oversimplification and perhaps just plain inaccurate…guess I shouldn’t be quick to do that.

        • something something says:

          For #4, I’d say that 1) western companies just make bets that don’t pay off sometimes but also 2) what might seem like a flop (e.g. Dimension W, Kiznaiver, and increasingly looking like Kuromukuro) might have still done well for the western company that invested in it in terms of streaming. All goes back to how a single show might be a failure in three ways and a success in four, depending on which angle you’re evaluating.

  6. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    Any idea why Drifters seems to be doing so well on Stalker? Other than the obvious (i.e. people liked the first episode). Does it have a strong established fanbase? Or was this expected?

    • something something says:

      Getting the women with pretty boys and the men with violence? (And of course a little of crossover for both.)

      It did well initially when it had some pre-screened episodes, but it performing very well again after airing is what’s really impressive.

      I wonder how much of the male audience is driving it, because it’s a mystery what the hell else they’re buying this season. We have four likely 10k candidates, and they all have largely female fanbases: Utapri, Tourabu, Haikyuu, Yuuri on Ice.

      Brave Witches has a shot since s1-2 did so well and Strike Witches STILL moves BD boxes (its FOURTH BD box is ranking quite well, 8 years after s1 aired) but I personally don’t expect that to translate to equal support for Brave Witches. Who knows tho.

      I wont be surprised if there are zero heavily-male fanbase shows reaching 10k this season. Hell, we could see a season where literally the only heavily-male-targeted series to hit 10k both aired in Winter! (Konosuba, Monogatari). Spring will have zero 10ks, Summer has a mixed audience (LL) and female (B Project). And then there’s Fall.

  7. something something says:

    The current urisure archive is getting unreliable. Takes days to update, sometimes doesn’t include the per-series or monthly rankings, and I’m even seeing that sign of impending doom for any website: spam comments that don’t get quickly removed. There’s that Chinese forum which serves as a decent backup and is a lot faster than urisure archive, and I’ve been providing it in the [Alternate] links lately, but it’s harder to use for me. Partly because I can’t navigate Chinese the way I can Japanese but also because the format is just less well structured.

    So I’ve been trying a little more often to follow the super fast moving JP sales threads and grab the txt file when it’s up. But since this happens at some random point on Thursday or Friday, in the middle of my work day, and the window before the file is taken down is very short, I often can’t catch it.

    This week I did manage (it finally came out on Friday) and used it when I did the update. I’ve also now linked it in an unlisted pastebin for the [Alternate] link above.

    If any of you also stalk the JP threads, tossing the txt file into an unlisted pastebin and leaving the link in a comment here would be -super rad-. But I’ll continue to try, when I can, to grab the file myself.

    If you’re wondering how we get the weekly txt file:
    1. Go here on the day the file comes out, usually early Thursday night or early Friday morning JST: http://refugee-chan.mobi/urisure/
    2. Periodically ctrl+f the latest threads (you can click 全部 to see all posts in a thread) for the text “axfc“.
    3. If you find a hit, it should be the link to the temporary file hosting service where the file is stored. Might also be some text mentioning “ウィ” for “wee(kly)”.
    4. Follow the link and click through one or two more pages (in the text portion on the right not the links on the left) until you get to the page where it finally lets you download the file. Since there’s no active link right now I can’t show example screenshots but I think you’ll figure it out. If there’s no link it’s already expired.
    5. If you do get it, go to http://pastebin.com and paste it all in with Exposure = Unlisted.

    Then let us know what the link is! The more people we have looking for this file the less reliant we have to do on the somewhat questionable urisure archive.

  8. something something says:

    I finally added the few remaining 2004 shows, which means the Averages list is complete and the per-Volume post has been added for that year.

    2004 Total Average Sales, TV/ONA
    2004 Total Sales by Volume

    Completed 2000-2003 coming… …eventually. Maybe. Possibly not.

  9. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    So what do people see as the next (almost) sure hit, as in just about guaranteed to sell tens of thousands of discs? Nothing has caught my eye in this season or next season that I would expect to easily exceed an average of 10k+ per volume, so would SnK 2 in Spring be the next one?

    • Avatar hpulley says:

      Sure hit? Hard to tell.

      For this season Uta Pri obviously though it is not solicited yet? As well, Drifters looks like it could be over 10K but it could also be massively overestimated due to its format. Female otaku shows are difficult to follow since they tend to be less Amazon based. I don’t watch those shows or follow their sales well either but Touken Ranbu could sell well? Yuri on Ice seems to be very popular on social media but that doesn’t seem to be translating into sales.

      Winter? I don’t really see much of anything but you never know when Aniplex might ask Shaft to animate another season of Monogatari which should give at least 10-20K of sales.

      Spring. SnK2? I’m not sure. The manga still sells but the series changes quite a bit in the next chapters and it has been many years since S1. I think it will still sell well but I seriously doubt it will put up comparable numbers. A hit for sure but I doubt it will be a really big hit. Don’t really see anything else.

      After that, the next Touken Ranbu? Second season of LoveLive Sunshine, next season of Uta Pri. Can’t think of much else but hopefully there are some dark horses along the way.

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Ahh oops sorry Utapri, that’s probably it. I don’t watch it and it wasn’t on Stalker…but yeah, if previous seasons are any indication that should be easily over 10k.

        And yeah, it seems like you both are skeptical about Drifters hitting 10k+ average, and I’m inclined to agree with that skepticism. It’s not like I have some particularly special insight, but I guess it just doesn’t strike me as something that would sell 10k easily. But then again, I’m not claiming to be an expert on the purchasing habits of anime viewers!

    • something something says:

      Utapri will be massive as usual. Yuuri on Ice is ranking at Animate like an easy 10k. Haikyuu should maintain 10k with only 5 volume this season, unless it drops badly. Touken Ranbu would be considered a massive flop if it didn’t hit 10k. Women are totally keeping this season alive.

      Drifters is the dark horse. It’s ranking like an easy 10k, but I also expect it to be hugely overestimated so unless it has about a 15k estimate I won’t be convinced of 10k wk1. Though it always has wk2+ to make the mark even if it starts under 10k. As a one-shot box release it won’t have nay drop-off.

      • Avatar hpulley says:

        Women are saving anime. Too bad I can’t stand to watch their shows. No offense to the fans, the shows just really aren’t made for or meant for me… in an obvious way. I don’t know how to read sales from the store rankings so I have no clue there but if there are 4 10K+ hit shows for women this season that would mean the shift was real. Hmm, Yuri is even fairly high on Stalker now.

        Luckily we still have a few cgdct shows even though they will sell like dirt. Not quite shoujo anime level of dirt but dirt nonetheless.

        • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

          But doesn’t that depend on what you consider their shows? I know you and I both like some anime in the female demographics (shoujo/josei).

          But if you mean more fanservice intensive shoes, then yeah, I probably feel similar, I wouldn’t expect those to appeal to many (straight) males.

          I’m not sure, but does it seem to you like the shoujo/josei shows with more cross appeal tend to sell poorly, while the fanservice ones tend to do better?

          • Avatar hpulley says:

            Shoujo/josei anime doesn’t really appeal to female otaku. Not anymore anyway, which is why it sells like dirt. They don’t make many of those shows anymore. The successful selling shows made for female otaku do not appeal to me at all. They are completely different from traditional shoujo and josei stories and anime. The wider appeal you mention is a non-otaku population who considers a 500 yen manga to be a reasonable purchase but not a 7000 yen Bluray. Shoujo manga still sells well. Chihayafuru is one of the few jousei manga which sell well. But the anime for both sell poorly. Female otaku much prefer anime with popular attractive male seiyuu who do singing events. Shoujo and jousei anime don’t have much of that, maybe the male MC.

            Haikyuu is a shounen sports manga but the male characters and seiyuu make it popular with female otaku and males too. Kuroko no Basuke is the same. Other shounen manga/anime like Shingeki no Kyojin are followed by both male and female otaku so it is possible to have cross appeal as well, even without the singing events. All of these anime/manga are cross-played by female cosplayers playing the male characters, again very popular.

            LoveLive has wide appeal too. It seems like wider appeal can be very successful when done right, when you walk the line carefully.

            Anime just for male otaku doesn’t seem to be selling well these days, with a few exceptions, at least from disc sales. It is possible that male otaku buy more figures and dakimakura but I don’t think we have any numbers. Fanservice in anime for male otaku doesn’t really seem to help either.

            • Avatar Progeusz says:

              I personally want to think the big part of problem with male otaku shows’ sales is their quality. Obviously I’m only speaking from my own perspective here but I feel like the shows in recent seasons have been weaker. 7k a disc is a lot and one needs a serious push to open the wallet. From this year, even if I had the money, I would probably only get New Game

            • Avatar Mari says:

              Anyone find it hilarious the ones that star strong female protagonists ended up being made for guys with female audiences as a peripheral audience? Just imagine stuff like those old 70s shoujo manga like Rose of Versailles or Sukeban Deka being made today. There’s NO WAY they’ll be on shoujo manga nowadays; they’ll be more aimed for the seinen audience!

              Why are the males otaku lagging horribly as of late? Did Love Live Sunshine or mobage games burn their money or something?

              I think the biggest thing that bugs me about this “fujo rising” is that male leads (as long it’s not lead harem-esque types) is SO lucrative in almost any type genre and story since the dawn of entertainment. This means they could try any type of show that could grab their interest and potentially be easier for general audiences to get into.

              What the kind of grounds in terms of stories and characterizations have the cute girl protagonists broken when the male otaku were calling the shots in the market? It’s absolutely baffling the industry didn’t even bother following the same route as the fujos and sports (and not the Keijo kind).

              • something something says:

                I don’t think any one show can explain it, because big shows don’t drain whole years by themselves. But yes the idea that they’re spending money in other places or placing less value on physical media is most likely. When those “other places” are “things the anime adaptation is helping drive interest in” then by and large the disc drops are okay… clearly someone is making enough money on the tons of shows we see each season to make it worthwhile. While I’m still of the opinion there may be too many shows, the trend keeps going so something must be working! Finally figuring out how to tap into international markets in a more effective way helps too of course. Switching focus from “get them to buy our shows legally” to “get them to watch our shows legally” has been a long time coming, but also incredibly successful. Most people want to watch shows, not own shows.

                As for the idea of male and female protagonists and their target audiences, I wonder how much is just a shift in who buys anime? You mentioned a change in the types of protagonists in shoujo – is that just about shows getting adaptations, or the manga market as a whole? I read very little manga (and then only yuri stuff) so I’m totally out of touch with what’s popular in manga. I’d have assumed that even if sports boys are popular with women otaku, that wouldn’t necessarily mean huge changes in how the manga industry works. Only a tiny fraction of manga get anime after all. But it’d be interesting if the trends in anime really were reshaping manga. Or maybe it’s the other direction?

          • Avatar Progeusz says:

            Almost nobody ever means shoujo or josei adaptations in such context. They have never been relevant to BD sales.
            Just like almost nobody ever means battle shounens or dark seinens in such context (they do have more oblivious fans though so you see them from time to time).

            By the way, shoujo, josei, shounen and seinen aren’t really terms used for anime.

            • something something says:

              They can be used if the series is directly adapted from a manga that falls under one of those market categories. Generally, you’re targeting the same manga audience with the anime adaptation. But not necessarily targeting them as disc buyers, no. The demographics of people who buy Series X as manga and the people who buy Series X in its anime form may be very different. This generally seems to be the case for shounen manga (primarily sports, with the occasional battle shounen) moreso than the others.

              • Avatar Progeusz says:

                Even then, it’s a stretch and people rather say “shoujo adaptation” than “shoujo anime”.

                >But not necessarily targeting them as disc buyers, no.
                Yes, I’m making this distinction because the site is about DVD/BD sales and so was the current discussion. The prices alone make manga fanbase vastly different from anime buyers. 7000 vs 500-900 yen is a huge difference. It’s especially true for series which come out in shounen/seinen magazines but have big female fanbase due to various factors like Haikyuu and KuroBasu you mentioned. Other issue is the time, non-kids anime almost all air late, often after midnight. Sure, there are rebroadcasts and times vary on different stations but anime by default aren’t really something people enjoy while doing casual everyday stuff as opposed to manga which are read on train or during break in school.

  10. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    Wow DxD with ANOTHER season. Even a 6kish average was enough eh? Maybe the LN sold well or something. Well, I’m not opposed to it. But if 6k can get another season, maybe some other shows can…

  11. something something says:

    In light of a conversation (now deleted) in the recent weekly sales thread going off the rails, I’ll go over some basic points about my approach to moderating, since I’m not sure if I’ve done it explicitly before:

    1. Private websites don’t have free speech. They have moderation (or, should). You may disagree with the moderation decision, but you don’t have any say in its application. Obviously a good moderator is interested in the views of the community at large, but don’t conflate your views with anyone else’s views.

    2. The moderation here is much stricter than you’re used to on other sites. I’ve only needed to delete a tiny, tiny handful of comments in the history of the site (the recent thread may have been more than all prior deletions combined and it wasnt even that many), but I’d bet most of those people that got deleted or banned would object “I can post those things on MAL or Reddit and it’s fine!”. This is true. Also true: MAL and Reddit are dumpster fires and I’m deliberately not emulating them.

    3. I’m honestly not concerned about negative critiques of this site. I don’t want to belabor that point, because claiming not to care about something sounds like you really do care, right? But I still occasionally see comments like “xyz people on abc site don’t like you” and I want you to know: that’s okay. I am happy with how this site is run, and virtually every interaction I have regarding it, here and elsewhere, is entirely positive. If you worry about my or this site’s reputation at all, then you are worrying about it more than I am. You don’t need to do that.

    4. Positivity is valued over negativity. They are not equal here. Do you hate a show? We don’t need to know. I’d much rather read about what you enjoyed or are interested in. (Possible exception for the Season Viewing posts, but even then, don’t go overboard.) Are you glad a show sold poorly, or mad a show sold well? We don’t need to know that either. Do you think someone is an idiot? Well unless you think they’re being deliberately disruptive, either ignore them or look at it as an opportunity to politely educate them. And if they really are being disruptive, I’ll probably deal with them myself.

    5. This advice applies anywhere: your opinion is exponentially more important to you than it is to anyone else. As a corollary, you do not possess an inherent “right” to debate any topic with anyone else. If they do not want to engage you, for any reason, they don’t have to. They owe you and your opinion nothing. I’ve found that coming to terms with that is one of the quickest paths to becoming a more relaxed person online.

    6. Do I follow all my own rules perfectly, 100% of the time? No, but I do try my best. This is why I almost never ban on a first offense unless someone just seems irredeemable.

    The amount of comments on this site that in any way transgress is shockingly low (8,097 approved comments, about 20-30 deleted comments!), given what a mess most other anime websites are. So, thanks for that, genuinely. I’m always amazed at this fact. But it still seemed worthwhile to write this up since I think many people are used to communities that work differently.

    • Avatar AholePony says:

      Well said. This is just a statistics site as far as I can tell. There really isn’t any room here for the types of comments that would even require moderation. I have voiced my opinion re: specific shows before but always try to remind myself of the purpose of the site and keep it short at worst. I have deleted whole replies before submitting because I know it’s just going off-topic.

    • Avatar Progeusz says:

      Thank you a lot for taking time to write this. Very clear and takes care of basically everything (except for “what is anime?” ^^”). As a person who read 90-99% of comments here I’m pretty sure you never made such post, only mentioned some of these points as replies to other people and there really weren’t many times when you had occasion to do it.

      Very impressive and indeed surprising statistics. Hopefully they’ll stay this way.

  12. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    If a show has some kind of merchandise other than BD/DVDs that is expected to sell well (e.g., music CDs) would it be possible or likely that various members of the production committee (besides the music/merchandise producer) would have some kind of deal in place whereby they get a portion of the profits from the sales? Or would the music/merch producer perhaps be expected to contribute more funding to the production of the show?

    With a top selling idol show that sells a lot of discs (like 30k+) maybe this doesn’t matter, but I’m curious for a show like Macross Delta, which, while it has sold quite a few discs, hasn’t sold like 30k+ average.

    • Production committees have revenue sharing plans in place such that if one company exceeds their costs in revenue production, they’ll share percentages with other members so that those who may take a loss would earn something from a successful side.

      If a company is producing something and they aren’t on the committee like merchandise from Movic or Chara-Ani, likely they’ll give a royalty payment to the committee members (and that gets split according to contracts). In the case of Macross Delta, we know only the producers’ companies on the committee: Big West, Satelight, and Bandai Visual, so Flying Dog, who produced the music, may or may not be on the committee. If they are, they certainly shared proceeds with the other members. If they are not, then they paid royalties to the committee/original creator.

      Hopefully that helps clarify it.

      • something something says:

        The revenue sharing is so important and I wish we knew so much more about it. With video disc publishers still leading many committees despite disc sales continuing to slide (particularly among shows aimed partly or largely at men), they have to be getting back-filled somehow. It’s hard to see some of these shows exceeding expectations in any area to have anything available to share, though. I mean, where the hell is Flip Flappers realistically going to make any money? Sigh.

        • Avatar Progeusz says:

          They can always fill their stomachs with rewards for best anime or artistic style.
          I wish they could.

          • something something says:

            My most comforting thought is “I can’t fathom that anyone involved in this show expected any kind of commercial success so at least nobody will be surprised.”

            And damn that’s a depressing place to look for “comfort”.

            At the moment, my 7 reasonably likely imports are all set to bomb completely. This is nothing new for me, but watching so many shows in a season makes it even more glaring. Izetta has the best shot at the moment, but even a 2k average seems like the best possibility there. Everything else could easily be sub-2k.

            And who knows if/when we’ll ever see Vivid Strike on Amazon. I may have to use HMV, bleh.

            • Avatar hpulley says:

              It’s odd because a crawl at the bottom of the live broadcast of Vivid Strike ep1 listed the date for the first volume but it still hasn’t actually showed up. I tweeted you about it and if I recall it was December 21st though I can’t find my own tweet now. For December 21st, the fact that it hasn’t actually been solicited yet is worrying as there isn’t much time left.

              I think we can use inverse logic for comfort. They are making lots of anime therefore it must make enough money, somehow, somewhere, sometime, for it to be worth their while to continue making it. If it was purely a money losing industry then it would make less shows or no shows, the industry would collapse. It is frustrating that we can’t tell where the money is coming from, can’t tell what is successful, what is not successful, what is getting a sequel, what is not getting a sequel… but we don’t really need to know. For as long as it lasts, just enjoy the show!

              • something something says:

                I think it’s just Amazon that isn’t listing Vivid Strike. It’s up at Gamers and such – most importantly, HMV, which is the only realistic alternative for me if Amazon never lists it. But Amazon not listing it is really strange considering -they’re streaming it- in Japan. You think they’d want to sell, at their own shop, the damn show they’re streaming…

                The argument that -in the aggregate- we’re getting a lot of anime so something must be working is of course very likely true. But I’m talking about from my own personal perspective. Before the recent announcement of a second season for Yuyuyu, the last time a new series I’d rated a 9-10/10 got a sequel was Non Non Biyori or Yama no Susume. None of my 2016 favorites are likely to get a sequel with the possible exception of New Game, which will be a rather borderline 5k or so (well, I hope it can manage 5k, I’m not super confident anymore…)

                The lack of sequels is one of the biggest contributors to me not having awarded any 10/10s since Yama no Susume s2 in Summer 2014. The shows I like tend to get better as you spend more time with the characters. So when when almost everything I really love is one cour, I never get to spend that time with them. I’d trade almost any 5 shows I’m enjoying this season (except Flip Flappers) for just one of Koufuku s2 or Locodol s2 or Gakkougurashi s2 in a heartbeat.

                So while it’s great that new anime I like keeps coming out, I rarely get more than three months with any individual show before it vanishes into the mists of obscurity, never to return. And if these shows were really doing all that well, I expect we’d see more sequels from them.

                • Avatar hpulley says:

                  Sorry, I misinterpreted your original statement about it not being listed by Amazon to mean it wasn’t listed anywhere. I’m so Amazon-centric myself lately that I failed to notice Vivid Strike was on sale anywhere else. Searching for Vivid Strike on Amazon tells me it is on Amazon Prime Video but not on disc; very helpful.

                  The fact that shows we like keep getting made but just one cour of them is a bit strange but it likely means that the other things about it which do sell do not need a second cour or season, unfortunately. I used to say it was the manga but it must be the rest as well.

                  I kept seeing rumours of YnS S3 but Earth Star isn’t looking to be in great shape these days. They cancelled their app a year (or was it two?) after cancelling their print magazine. Now only the web page remains. I’m wondering how long they are going to last when nothing they make ever ranks in print and I don’t think any of their shows have ever done well on discs aside from YnS S1 or perhaps the first couple of seasons of Teekyuu (luckily 2 minutes is super cheap to make). I’m just thankful when I see new chapters show up on their web page now, I keep fearing it will give me just an error one of these days. I hope I’m wrong about them but it doesn’t sound good.

                  • something something says:

                    Yeah I *thought* it wasn’t listed many other places yet, but it actually is, so I dunno wtf Amazon’s issue is. “Hey watch this show here… then go buy the BDs from our competitors.”

                    if this were a show more than like 5 people were going to buy, I’d call that rather self-evidently stupid.

                    • Avatar hpulley says:

                      Just makes me wonder if it’s a search or listing error but no matter how I try to do my usual ways of circumventing a problem like that, using related items and such…. I just can’t find it. Really bizarre.

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Well, that definitely does. Thank you. Also agree with something, the details seems super important but of course they probably keep that stuff pretty secret.

  13. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    So if the disc market continues along (what seems to me) a trend of contraction, what/how should we expect the production committees to react? Here are some things that seem possible/likely to me, but I could be wrong:

    1. Fewer shows overall per season. Would seem to be a pretty obvious response if there are fewer hits to fund fewer low sellers, or just an over-saturated market.
    2. Less risk taking in shows that do get made. This could manifest itself in a number of ways. Fewer original series, higher percentage of adaptations with existing fanbases that can make money for committee members off of source material. Fewer 2 cour (or more) shows. Perhaps more sequels for high selling shows.
    3. Finding new or emphasizing other existing revenue streams. This isn’t necessarily a new one, but maybe just a stronger reliance on them. I’ve thought streaming would be the way to go for the future (and Crunchyroll seems to be doing pretty well with that), but alas who knows.

    Maybe you all have seen some or all of this stuff already happening?

    • something something says:

      1. The number is still only going up despite discs declining for years.
      2. The industry is always going to chase trends of whatever is doing well, regardless of how discs sell. While we do seem to see less two cour shows, and more split cour, I don’t think we’re seeing less originals. The number has been creeping up in the 2010s through at least 2015 from a low point in 2009. I haven’t added all 2016 shows since they’re not all on sale yet.
      3. Been happening for a while.

      The problem with discussing trends now is we don’t know if what is happening is due to inertia and is set to stop or change soon, or if it’s already baked in the effect of lower disc sales and this is the new normal.

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Hopefully the language I used (“if” and “what seems to me”) made it clear that I wasn’t certain if this is a trend or not, and rather this is sort of a hypothetical based on how things seem to be. I’m not claiming to know for certain, but just based on how the data has seemed lately, I think it’s okay to have a discussion about the possibility right?

        As for your points:

        1. Have discs been declining for that long? Hmmmm I thought the noticeable decline was more of a recent development like the last couple of years. Anyways, it could be that some of the shows have been in development for a while, and the committees have had contracts/arrangements in place and couldn’t react quickly to a decline. This is speculative, but how does 2017 look to you? Maybe fewer shows than 2016?

        2. For someone like me, who thinks more originals could be a positive, that is heartening. The decline in two cour shows is disappointing, but if it’s made up for by split cours I guess that’s helps. Curious though, aren’t split cours usually decided ahead of time anyways? Why bother splitting them up? I guess if you’re a smaller studio that struggles with keeping deadlines maybe that helps if you want to avoid a God Eater type situation.

        3. Yeah, but maybe even more so if disc sales continue decline. Maybe they will be more desperate to find new revenue streams too? Not sure what else they could do though.

        • something something says:

          I never said it wasn’t okay to discuss it.

          The decline has been fairly consistent since mid-2013 (among late night anime discs we follow).

          • Avatar scineram says:

            Wasn’t 2013 Peak Sales? We could still be riding the tide that was greenlit then or soon after. But the rabid expansion into new markets, especially China could keep lifting most of the Nice Boats.

  14. Avatar hpulley says:

    I know it isn’t the main topic of this site but have you seen the post-anime bump for Flying Witch? v4 (first one to rank IIRC, pre-anime bump) sold 28K and ranked once in March but v5 just sold over 51K in its first week! Should be at least a doubling of publication numbers so I can that a big success for the manga. I hope it can sell even more, maybe 100K is possible? Tripling or quadrupling the readership would be really great.

    • Avatar hpulley says:

      “…so I call that a big success for the manga.” Can’t type today, sorry…

    • something something says:

      Well, that’s something. And the anime managed to avoid being a complete bomb disc-wise, even if it only attained “basically average”. I guess that counts as a victory these days, for shows I like…

      • Avatar hpulley says:

        With the whole disc side of the industry apparently in a slump, will we need to adjust down what we think of as basically average? Of what we think of as a hit or a big hit? Just so tough to tell.

      • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

        This is basically how I comfort myself for almost all shoujo anime I like. The manga get good boosts. And while I like the WatashiMote manga, the anime left a lot to be desired but I still feel bad that the anime is going to sell probably ~0.5k.

        Yuri!!! on Ice doing well is God’s gift to me for my birthday because I was so afraid it would flop on its face. But now…tons of new merch (that I can’t buy) keeps coming out!

        And after that latest episode, the big boost is well deserved.

        What I would have giveb for Akatsuki no Yona’s anime to have done even a quarter as well as YOI…

        • Avatar hpulley says:

          If Yona had been a male character it might have received sales like Yuri on Ice… female otaku just don’t buy many fantasy het romance shoujo discs anymore.

          Prince Yu-ri lives a life of luxury and ease, completely sheltered from the problems of the seemingly peaceful Kingdom of Kouka; however, the sudden murder of the king and betrayal of his beloved cousin Su-won places Yu-ri’s life in mortal peril. Forced to escape only with Son Hak, who is both his childhood friend and bodyguard, the naïve prince soon discovers that Kouka is not the idyllic place he envisioned it to be…

          If Prince Yu-ri went on to collect ikemen dragons for his harem and they sung the theme songs and did live events then I imagine it would have sold well.

          Yu-ri is even a Korean name… currently female but used by males in the past. Perfect for a “historical fantasy” anime…

        • Movic is on the production committee for Yuri on Ice, so you should expect to see a lot of merchandise coming from the series. It’ll benefit the series even more than if they weren’t on the committee, so buy buy buy.

          • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

            I’ll do my best! My dad hates the idea of anime merch. He just lets me buy manga but I’ll do my best to buy some merch at least.

        • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

          Eh, I could be wrong but I thought Yona did quite well for itself, especially considering wasn’t there a significant delay between when the series ended and the discs were sold?

          • something something says:

            It averaged 2,777 which I wouldn’t call “quite well”. That’s not small enough to be an outright bomb bt not high enough to be at all noteworthy. Average with a touch of mediocre, basically, at least as the disc sales go.

            • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

              I probably could have phrased that clearer. The “did quite well for itself” wasn’t intended to mean it did well for an anime TV series in general. I think it did quite well for a show that is 1) a shoujo manga adaptation of 2) a Romance 3) Reverse Harem and 4) significantly delayed between the end of the series and the actually selling of discs. So in other words, for a show with all of that seeming to be going against it I thought it did quite well to even get 2700+ average. I figured a fan like AnimePhoenix would already know all of that so didn’t go into all the details heh. But yeah, if you consider it in the broader context of TV anime series, then yeah, I guess I’d consider that kind of a not particularly high nor particularly low number, something like decent but maybe kinda mediocre.

              Though if you take into account the manga, then maybe overall I suppose you could consider it a success. Not sure if it’s enough to get another season though. I’m not typically into reverse harem shows, but I found Yona to be surprisingly enjoyable, so if they did do another season I might be interested.

          • Avatar AnimePhoenix says:

            Yona wasn’t a failure because it got a huge manga boost and it’s become very important for Hana to Yume (its magazine) but I was talking about the anime sales only.

  15. Avatar Hahalollawl says:

    So maybe I wasn’t paying very close attention in the past, but does it seem like there are a lot of shows lately that have unusual episode lengths? Like this season there are shows that are 1 min, 2 min, 4 min, 5 min, 9 min, 13 min, 15 min (Soul Buster), seems like a lot of really unusual amounts of time, rather than just 5 min shorts and 23-25 min. shows. Or have I just not paid close enough attention and it has always been that way?

    And also, how do they fit those into TV time slots? Are most of them not broadcasted?

    • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

      Also, 8 min (Okusama) and 10 min (Cheating Craft).

    • something something says:

      I know at least some are aired together as parts of a single half hour programming block. Others I believe slot in between normal length shows, in those few minutes of downtime.

      • Avatar Hahalollawl says:

        Hmm interesting. Do you think there are more of these shows that go for an unusual amount of time nowadays than before or not really? And should we expect more of them in the future? Is it an effective way to limit investments in shows but still make money?

        • something something says:

          I’m sure someone has run the numbers, but I don’t know off the top of my head. Certainly late night shorts are more common then they were, say, 5 years ago. But I’m not sure how it’s changed year on year since then. I think Ejc maybe posted the counts of shorts by year in an older comment, though not broken ot by exact episode lengths.

          My guess is shorts have always been a fairly varied range of runtimes, tho. At least of the ones I’ve watched, I haven’t noticed particularly uniform runtimes.

          Whether it makes money I can’t say (certainly disc sales are about nil for most) but I suppose we’ll know indirectly if the numbers keep going up.

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