Stalker points to date, not the final estimates:

Points so far Solicited Days Since Pts/Day Release Days Left Series
13,838 2014/12/19 42 329 2015/03/27 55 Kantai Collection
5,610 2014/11/15 76 73 2015/02/04 4 Soukyuu no Fafner Exodus
3,427 2014/12/20 41 83 2015/04/22 81 Jojo no Kimyou na Bouken Stardust Crusaders Egypt-hen
2,572 2015/01/19 11 233 2015/04/24 83 Kuroko no Basuke 3rd Season
2,221 2014/12/10 51 43 2015/02/25 25 Durarara!! x2 Shou
1,776 2015/01/24 6 296 2015/04/23 82 THE IDOLM@STER Cinderella Girls
1,732 2014/12/19 42 41 2015/03/27 55 Shinmai Maou no Testament
1,716 2015/01/10 20 85 2015/03/18 46 Aldnoah Zero s2
1,275 2014/12/03 58 21 2015/03/04 32 Saenai Kanojo no Sodattekata
1,152 2015/01/09 21 54 2015/03/27 55 Tokyo Ghoul √A
1,126 2015/01/10 20 56 2015/03/25 53 Dog Days s3
603 2015/01/06 24 25 2015/03/04 32 Kami-sama Hajimemashita ◎
529 2015/01/09 21 25 2015/04/24 83 Koufuku Graffiti
461 2015/01/06 24 19 2015/03/25 53 Yuri Kuma Arashi
418 2015/01/10 20 20 2015/03/27 55 Ansatsu Kyoushitsu
413 2015/01/13 17 24 2015/03/27 55 Junketsu no Maria
410 2014/12/26 35 11 2015/04/08 67 Absolute Duo
351 2014/12/24 37 9 2015/03/27 55 ISUCA
340 2015/01/04 26 13 2015/03/18 46 Tantei Opera Milky Holmes TD
283 2015/01/11 19 14 2015/03/18 46 Sengoku Musou
279 2015/01/13 17 16 2015/03/25 53 Seiken Tsukai no World Break
263 2015/01/07 23 11 2015/03/18 46 Binan Koukou Chikyuu Bouei-bu Love!?
228 2015/01/13 17 13 2015/03/18 46 Rolling Girls
213 2015/01/09 21 10 2015/03/25 53 Juuou Mujin no Fafnir
167 2015/01/16 14 11 2015/04/08 67 Shounen Hollywood -Holly Stage For 50-
61 2015/01/10 20 3 2015/06/17 137 Death Parade

Trying something a little different. The danger in posting Stalker estimates/points is that people will look at the numbers and lose context such as how long something has been solicited or how long it’s got left to go. Both of these can drastically affect what a points value actually means.

So this time I’ve included three things:
• How many days it has been since a volume was solicited
• How many days it will be until a volume is released
• How many points the release has received thus far, per day, on average

This makes a few things apparent, such as how low Saekano is in points per day compared to its total, due to it being solicited for nearly two months already. Meanwhile Deremas may be down at 6th, but it’s only been solicited for 6 days. (And most of its sales will come in the G4U pack but that’s another issue entirely!) Then there’s Fafner at #2, but it also comes out in a few days, so this is the end of its point accumulation, more or less.

A straight points/days calculation is less than perfect, of course, because discs solicited well before the show aired (like Saekano, again) will get very few points at first and have a low Pts/Day number. Still, it’s useful to keep in mind.

I wouldn’t take points per day and multiply it against days remaining to get a total either, because some titles (like Kancolle) are on a sharp downward trend at the moment from their early days, meaning their points per day is inflated. Its current estimate is around 19k (using last 7 days) while 329*55 + current points would net you over 30k, which is unrealistic.

Well, unrealistic as a Stalker estimate, we have its dominating storefront presence to take into consideration. Aaaaaand vol. 1 sales can be super misleading, as I always warn. Really, there is no end to the caveats we must consider when looking at sales predictions.

Just treat this as a very rough, high level view of how the season is shaping up. For any individual title, please take the time to understand its unique circumstances before making too much of the numbers here.

29 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Winter 2015 thus far”

  1. Paulo27 says:

    Durarara is super low, even considering it’s an Aniplex show.
    Didn’t realize Fafner was that popular either (I read somewhere it had event ticket, I’m guessing that’s helping?)
    Death Parade pretty late too, BOX-set?

    • Lidieth says:

      In addition to the event ticket, Fafner vol.1 has the extended versions of episodes 1 and 2 (30 min each) that were only shown in theaters, before the TV premiere. The box is no longer Amazon-exclusive but it comes a bit late I guess.

    • something
      something says:

      Drrr has regular editions at Amazon, not just Amazon-exclusives. In fact, Aniplex has backed off of that whole stupid thing almost entirely. So while we might see some residual underestimation due to Aniplex+ shop peeling off customers permanently, we aren’t likely to see the mass-underestimation of SAO II, Aldnoah, Mahouka, P4GA, Kuroshitsuji II anymore. Or at least it wont be because of the Amazon-exclusives for those titles that have normal editions; underestimation can still happen for other reasons of course.

      Lidieth answered on Fafner so regarding Death Parade, yep, it’s a box set.

      • Paulo27 says:

        So Durarara is just doing like crap? With the following it has and 18k+ from S1 was kinda expecting an easy 10k+ for it.
        Isn’t Parasyte 2 BOX-sets too? Bet Madhouse was just like “ok guys, we’ve enough made discs sales during Spring 2014 for the next 5 years, assume everything else we do in that time period sells 0”.

        • something
          something says:

          Well, it’s not doing like crap *for an average show* but it will probably see a sharp drop from season one. Keep in mind that while season one averaged 18k, some of its volumes didn’t clear 10k by all that much. If a sequel is best measured against the weakest volumes of the prior season (which is what I usually go by), a five year gap and at least 18 disc commitment for three cour of madness could easily drop well below 10k.

          As for Parasyte and Death Parade, format doesn’t have much to do with Madhouse, it’d be the video distributor’s call.

  2. Gatmar says:

    Shinmai Maou no Testament is doing alright i guess considering it is the third highest new series this winter…..
    Junketsu No Maria hmmm… wish it was a bit better but it dosent really matter as that series will most likely conclude in its 1 cour run so no worries
    I am a bit surprised at how Death Parade is last? Considering Madhouse made it and the huge reception it got from western viewers so far… well it is still early so who nows…

    I am not surprised about Kancolle… It has a huge fanbase in Japan as the Game it is based on is so populer there… but that series on its own is not good u can tell it was made to cash in on the fanbase as people who have not played the game will tell you it just so mediocre…

    Can i get an estimation of what in K these points would be into? i know kancolle is around 19 k as u mentioned but i would like an estimate for the other if u can ? thx

    • something
      something says:

      1 point = 1 sale, or at least that’s the intent. So if a final estimate (remember, these are points so far not final estimates) is 10,000, that means Stalker’s final sales prediction is 10,000.

      But a prediction is just a prediction, even if it’s a reasonably educated guess. As always, we’ll have to wait until release and the official Oricon numbers.

      • Gatmar says:

        I guess So…. hmm Still even if the numbers are subject to change u can pretty much tell that the winter season is defiantly weak in sales in total… i find it always produces the weakest series as a whole in every winter…. or am i the only one who sees it like that?

        • something
          something says:

          That came up recently, actually. See #4 here: http://www.someanithing.com/2780

          Winter and Summer sell basically the same, and both are a little below Spring and Fall, both of which also sell basically the same.

          Winter will certainly do better than last year. I cannot imagine Kancolle going below 15k even absolute worst case scenario, which would put it on par with last Winter’s best (Hoozuki).

          But in addition, we should also have Deremas selling over 10k with G4U (possibly way more but I’m not going to get my hopes up). So there alone it should beat last year. Not to forget Kurobas either, which should average at least 15k.

          So worst case, I expect there to be three shows this Winter that sell about as well as (and at least one should be much higher) last Winter’s top show.

          Then slightly below there’s Jojo, which I’m thinking has a decent shot of taking 10k again.

          Then we’ll likely end up with a few that are on par with last Winter’s 2nd tier (Chuu2koi, Mikakunin, Nisekoi) and get in the 5-8k range. Maybe Dog Days, Aldnoah, Durarara, Shinmai Maou? Possibly Fafner but I’m so not sure what to expect there.

          Overall it should be a significantly stronger Winter, even if Kancolle doesn’t eventually become the monster hit it had the potential to be.

          • Gatmar says:

            You could not have said it better….. Well we only have been trough 1/3 of the winter season so things are subject to change but yes i would agree the Spring and Fall Seasons are definitely on a different league when compared to the summer and winter seasons.

            I mean i am only watching 3 series that are worth my time in this… it was four but Kancolle i dropped it after the third for reasons said above. which was better than last winter which was only 1 show but still However in the spring i got over 8 shows waiting on to watch list….. So in that respect i definitely agree with your study

            • something
              something says:

              Though my #1 show of the year for 2014 (Sakura Trick), 2012 (Mouretsu Pirates) and 2011 (Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica) all ended up being in Winter. Coincidence, of course, but interesting.

              2009 (K-ON!), 2010 (K-ON!!), and 2013 (Yuyushiki) were all Spring. Well, at the time my 2009 favorite was Haruhi s2 from Summer but K-ON! has become my favorite show ever since then so it gets the nod now.

              In the past six years, then, my favorite has always aired in Winter or Spring. I wonder if 2015 will continue the pattern? The most likely scenarios are either Deremas somehow reaching the miraculous heights of Animas or Euphonium totally blowing me away. Otherwise, might have to wait and see what Summer and 1-cour Fall have in store.

          • moonnya says:

            Well I also count Tsukimonogatari as a winter anime. So it is 4 anime above 10k for me. Much better than last year winter

  3. moonnya says:

    I think you should remove the first one or two weeks of all anime, since its the point where sequels and the later solicited anime on Amazon get the most points.

    • something
      something says:

      That doesn’t mean they should be removed. Those rankings (and thus sales) from those weeks are real and should count. The question is just how to adjust for them if they rank *really really* high and then crash, but Stalker has some stuff it’s trying out to account for that. In the end though, it just comes down to understanding the data well enough to know where to trust it and where not.

      • moonnya says:

        No I don’t mean remove, I mean like this

        7 first days: a points
        x day from that till now : b points
        y day from now till release

        Instead of:
        Points/day you use: (a+b)/(x+7)
        and you got final point : ((a+b)/(x+7)) * y + a + b

        I suggest use like this:
        final point: (b/x) * y + a + b

        • something
          something says:

          I didn’t calculate final points, that first column is the Amazon Ranking Stalker (http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi) points to date, unchanged. Stalker adds points on a daily basis (with hourly adjustments), starting from zero, based on how a title ranks. The points you see are the points releases have gotten so far based on that. For points/day I simply took points so far/# of days since solicitation.

          The final estimates aren’t in the table at all. For example, Isuca BD v1 has 272 points so far, but an estimated total of 1170. Stalker’s calculation is (avg points/day for last 7 days) * (days until release).

          I’m not too interested in the estimates at the moment, but rather showing how shows have done on Amazon so far and indicating how long it’s been since solicitation and how long left until release to help put some context to those points. It’s just intended for a high level overview.

          • moonnya says:

            Uhh, I know what you post but here you wrote this

            I wouldn’t take points per day and multiply it against days remaining to get a total either, because some titles (like Kancolle) are on a sharp downward trend at the moment from their early days, meaning their points per day is inflated. Its current estimate is around 19k (using last 7 days) while 329*55 + current points would net you over 30k, which is unrealistic.

            So I suggest a new way of calculating the final points

            • something
              something says:

              Oh I thought you were looking at the first column as the prediction, since I only mentioned predictions in terms of what not to do. There are various ways the Stalker prediction can be improved, but I think the simplest is just for it to use the last 2-4 weeks rather than past 1 week. Smooth out big shifts a bit.

  4. moonnya says:

    Oh you forgot Dog Days” in the list

  5. Ejc says:

    I’m not surprised KanColle is now in a downwards trend. Episode 1 was great (so we saw a big boost in the Amazon ranking after), but from then after that it hasn’t been what fans in Japan (of the game and the light novel too) wanted.

    The teitoku (admiral) is being portrayed by the anime staff as very irresponsible, pretty much as a beginner player. Fans do not want to associate themselves with such a player. Fans of the light novel prefer how the game was adapted there, as the ship girls got actual training sessions and were not pushed into an event map straight away as in the anime. Who brings a low levelled ship to an event map, with little to no training???

    Then in episode 3, it just got worse. The teitoku was so irresponsible, and did not take precautions for his ship girls. Don’t want to put any spoilers on what happened, but fans question the teitoku’s mindset and naval tactics here. Some fans in Japan have even said that the teitoku must’ve bought an account with all these powerful ships for a high price and therefore has no idea how to utilise them properly, lol.

    Episode 4 had little to no effect on the Amazon ranking, so it will take a miracle really to bring KanColle back on track to its actual sales potential. I would not be surprised if Deremas wins Winter in the end, because KanColle has really shot itself in the foot. The teitoku was highlighted as the weakest link prior to the anime airing in Japan, and they were right. Do it badly, and you pay…

    • something
      something says:

      As much as I’ve love to see Deremas on top (well, not a smuch as I’d like to see Koufuku on top but hahahahahaha ::cries:: ), and admit it is possible, I still have no idea what to think about it at all. I mean the show itself I love, but the rankings are just, like… impossible to gauge. If we at least knew if the proportion of G4U would be similar to Animas then we could get a good ballpark from the standalone sales, but I haven’t the slightest idea if that’ll be the case. I just hope it does well, in any event.

      But yeah, the nico poll for Kancolle 4 was brutal. I know nico polls don’t mean a whole lot, but yikes.

      (Watch both Deremas and Kancolle slip and Kuroko ends up winning the season.)

      • Ejc says:

        I actually want Koufuku to do well, but right now it looks pretty dead unfortunately :(

        Some releases this season is indeed tough to gauge. Deremas is the toughest of all, as we have no idea how popular it is compared to the original Imas, in regards to the G4U bundle. KuroBas Season 3 having an Amazon edition now (what is with the increase in amazon editions lately?), but a significant amount of sales will be at Animate as usual. Dog Days” not looking too great (even if it had a significant storefront effect at gamers for the first 2 seasons).

        Just looking at KuroBas S1 and S2, 24.13% drop in average from S1 to S2, and the comparison between the lowest selling volumes are roughly the same as that 24.13% drop. Provided S3 doesn’t have that sort of common sequel drop again, KanColle doesn’t redeem itself in future episodes, and Deremas isn’t as popular as Imas, then yes i’d agree KuroBas S3 has the best chance of topping Winter, with Drrr x2 looking like it’ll suffer a severe sequel drop.

    • Fipse says:

      I am still waiting for THE Midway episode when KanColle stalker points will drop into the minus.

  6. AnimePhoenix says:

    While it would please me to no end if KurokoS3 would come out on top this Winter, I’m just eternally grateful that a third season was made at all. Now that the novels are being made into manga, can I dare to hope for some OVAs in the future? Please, Shueisha? :D

    Other than that, it makes me reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallly sad to see Boueibu(Binan Koukou) so low. It’s such a great show , and it’s hilarious but it pokes fun at itself in such a great way plus the guys are adorbs but no, no love for the poor Boueibu boys. :((( :cries: There’s no chance for it to sell more than ~1k now and literally no presence in Animate so…sigh.

  7. mk03 says:

    I know it’s too early, but Death Parade… looks dead. (pun intended) Yet another case of a show that Westerners love but the Japanese can’t relate to, I guess. Also, I’m somewhat surprised that Rolling Girls is that low.

  8. Jim says:

    Thought this was interesting. I’ve been reading about some of the recent polling among Japanese anime fans, and I saw this just posted today. Quote: “Japanese character database, Charapedia, asked 10,000 anime fans, 51.4% of whom were male while 48.6% were female, which new Winter 2015 anime would they continue to watch the most.” Summarizing the rest, in Charipedia’s previous poll KanColle was apparently #1, now it’s tumbled all the way down to ninth – which would bear out what you’ve posted here about the declining pre-sales. The current leaders in that poll are Drrr x2 (#1), Deremas (#2), KuroBas3 (#3), and AnsaKyo (#4).

    Famitsu magazine announced their own poll results for the season’s favorite anime two days ago, and the outcome was very different – in that poll KanColle was still #1, followed by A.Z 2 (#2), AnsaKyo (#3), and JoJo (#4). However, Famitsu polled about 1800 people and 2/3 of them were men, versus the near 50/50 gender split in Charipedia’s poll (out of Charipedia’s top three, Deremas in ninth placed highest in Famitsu’s poll).

    What does it all mean? Probably not that much. I don’t think Yuki Yuna ever polled that well in any of the Fall popularity rankings even though it’s ended up outselling almost everything else, and both of these polls make AnsaKyo look like a huge hit even though its pre-sales are pretty tepid so far. But seeing a title as hotly anticipated as KanColle taking such an abrupt tumble in at least one poll, on top of suddenly sputtering pre-sales, definitely doesn’t paint a very rosy picture for it.

    • something
      something says:

      Popularity rankings have at best a questionable correlation to sales. No matter how far Kancolle falls, it still seems almost impossible for it to be worse than third in sales (assuming Deremas does very well and Kurobas holds up better than expected), and it could still be first.

      I think at best we would say popularity polls might show that there are types of popularity that don’t have a direct relationship to disc sales. For example, AnsaKyo will sell badly on disc but maybe the manga will get a huge boost. And some shows that poll high but sell low may be in more prominent broadcast slots and get good ratings, etc.

      In general though, I find the polls tend to contradict each other and sales so much that they’ve got limited predictive relevance.

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