Like my similar post from Summer, just some observations so far, most of which I’ve already mentioned on twitter or comments on other posts.
Not much of a factor this season. The biggest question was whether they’d go through with it for their highest profile TV release of the year (UBW), but the answer is “nope”. There’s an Amazon version, but also a normal version with full discount. Looks like their argument wasn’t deemed quite important enough to risk a potential 50k+ series.
The other titles getting Amazon versions only are not ones expected to sell all that much. Nanatai is already moving millions of manga volumes, so nobody cares about the anime sales. The other is Kimiuso, which hasn’t started badly at all, but also isn’t really on the radar to be a big seller (yet?).
This isn’t like Summer where SAO II, Aldnoah, P4GA, and Kuroshitsuji were all affected. It’s much less of an issue for Fall.
On the other hand, this release’s predictions are shot to hell for a different reason: Stalker can’t track the non-exclusive version, which is the one getting most of the orders now. Details here. What this means is that the estimate you see for the one tracked by Stalker is less than half of what the estimate should be. This is also why I recommend everyone view the main Stalker tracking page at http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi?m=full instead of http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi.
Amagi Brilliant Park
At first, this one was on track for some major estimation issues. Thankfully the situation I outlined here regarding the Amazon exclusive artbox has calmed down considerably. It’s currently sitting down around #100 for the most part, which has taken the estimate from nigh on 30k to a much more grounded 8,584 for the LE BD, then add some disposable scraps for the non-exclusive BD and the DVD. I still think ~10k is high, but we shouldn’t see any kind of 50%+ overestimation now.
Like Amaburi, it has a somewhat tempting Amazon-exclusive extra, but the real skew for this title came from the very early solicitation that got up around 10,000 points from the three-episode pre-air. Over the past month it’s mostly been between #100 and #200, with occasional dips a good deal lower. It’s sitting up around 15k total points to date with an estimate a bit below 20k. I think the pre-air just overconcentrated all the early adopted in a very quick burst, and a more normal airing would see it sitting around #30-50 for most of this time.
The Race for Third
UBW will obviously be the top seller of the season followed by a a 20-35k gap. G Reco should in theory be pretty safe at second, though only for lack of a strong third.
So what will be #3? The strongest contenders at the moment are, I suppose, Amaburi and Psycho-Pass 2. Whereas Amaburi should be overestimated, Psycho-Pass should be underestimated. Positibe signs from a super successful s1 BD box aside, I think its Animate backing will generate modest underestimation. Factor in both sides and I think they should be pretty close.
Bahamut is another contender, but its incredibly strong start comes with a boatload of caveats (early adopters wanting the mobage bonuses, very late solicit, four volume BD-only release) and it is down int he 30s now. It’s much too early to evaluate this one yet.
Gundam BF Try is the most likely to snag third if all the other shows I mentioned stumble and lose steam.
For long shots we’ve got Yowapedal s2 and Crossange, but Yowapedal would need to jump considerably on s1 and Crossange will probably see sales along Valverave’s trajectory. Shirobako never managed to crack top 50, but it’s simmering right below the boiling point and could go over the top with one incredibly well-received episode.
Nothing else seems competitive. I think it’s too late for Yuyuyu to have its break-out episode, Gugukoku should do okay at Animate but not enough to compete, Grisaia is down too much from its early adopter boost (though it does have decent storefront presence so I could be writing it off too early!), etc.
I don’t think anything major is left unsolicited either.
Below are the current cumulative point totals, but keep in mind that we’re still at a point where when a title was solicited is a major factor in the point calculations. Note this is not the Stalker final estimates, just points to date.
For example, KimiUso just barely got solicited, so it being so low is totally meaningless.
|14,982||2014/12/25||Gundam G no Reconquista|
|7,292 (more like 15k+)||2015/3/25||Fate/stay night Unlimited Blade Works|
|6,586||2014/12/26||Amagi Brilliant Park|
|4,445||2015/1/28||Shingeki no Bahamut Genesis|
|3,349||2015/1/21||Yowamushi Pedal Grande Road|
|2,972||2015/3/27||Gundam Build Fighters Try|
|2,051||2014/12/25||Grisaia no Kajitsu|
|1,554||2015/1/28||Mushishi Zoku-shou season 2|
|1,470||2014/12/24||Madan no Ou to Vanadis|
|1,423||2015/1/28||Log Horizon 2nd Series|
|1,175||2014/12/17||Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de Aru|
|1,052||2014/12/26||Ore, Twintails ni Narimasu|
|899||2015/1/21||Ai Tenchi Muyou|
|748||2015/2/25||selector spread WIXOSS|
|676||2015/1/28||Nanatsu no Taizai|
|675||2015/1/28||Sora no Method|
|626||2014/12/26||Hitsugi no Chaika: Avenging Battle|
|550||2014/12/26||Inou Battle wa Nichijou-kei no Naka de|
|526||2014/12/25||Daitoshokan no Hitsujikai|
|512||2015/1/16||Danna ga Nani wo Itteiru ka Wakaranai Ken|
|423||2015/2/25||Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso|
|368||2015/1/21||Donten ni Warau|
|289||2014/12/24||Ookami-shoujo to Kuro-ouji|
|223||2014/12/24||Denki-gai no Honya-san|
|222||2014/12/24||Ushinawareta Mirai wo Motomete|
Naturally, not looking great for my planned imports (other than maybe Amagi) but what else is new?