Like my similar post from Summer, just some observations so far, most of which I’ve already mentioned on twitter or comments on other posts.

Aniplex/Amazon
Not much of a factor this season. The biggest question was whether they’d go through with it for their highest profile TV release of the year (UBW), but the answer is “nope”. There’s an Amazon version, but also a normal version with full discount. Looks like their argument wasn’t deemed quite important enough to risk a potential 50k+ series.

The other titles getting Amazon versions only are not ones expected to sell all that much. Nanatai is already moving millions of manga volumes, so nobody cares about the anime sales. The other is Kimiuso, which hasn’t started badly at all, but also isn’t really on the radar to be a big seller (yet?).

This isn’t like Summer where SAO II, Aldnoah, P4GA, and Kuroshitsuji were all affected. It’s much less of an issue for Fall.

Fate UBW
On the other hand, this release’s predictions are shot to hell for a different reason: Stalker can’t track the non-exclusive version, which is the one getting most of the orders now. Details here. What this means is that the estimate you see for the one tracked by Stalker is less than half of what the estimate should be. This is also why I recommend everyone view the main Stalker tracking page at http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi?m=full instead of http://rankstker.net/index_news.cgi.

Amagi Brilliant Park
At first, this one was on track for some major estimation issues. Thankfully the situation I outlined here regarding the Amazon exclusive artbox has calmed down considerably. It’s currently sitting down around #100 for the most part, which has taken the estimate from nigh on 30k to a much more grounded 8,584 for the LE BD, then add some disposable scraps for the non-exclusive BD and the DVD. I still think ~10k is high, but we shouldn’t see any kind of 50%+ overestimation now.

G Reco
Like Amaburi, it has a somewhat tempting Amazon-exclusive extra, but the real skew for this title came from the very early solicitation that got up around 10,000 points from the three-episode pre-air. Over the past month it’s mostly been between #100 and #200, with occasional dips a good deal lower. It’s sitting up around 15k total points to date with an estimate a bit below 20k. I think the pre-air just overconcentrated all the early adopted in a very quick burst, and a more normal airing would see it sitting around #30-50 for most of this time.

The Race for Third
UBW will obviously be the top seller of the season followed by a a 20-35k gap. G Reco should in theory be pretty safe at second, though only for lack of a strong third.

So what will be #3? The strongest contenders at the moment are, I suppose, Amaburi and Psycho-Pass 2. Whereas Amaburi should be overestimated, Psycho-Pass should be underestimated. Positibe signs from a super successful s1 BD box aside, I think its Animate backing will generate modest underestimation. Factor in both sides and I think they should be pretty close.

Bahamut is another contender, but its incredibly strong start comes with a boatload of caveats (early adopters wanting the mobage bonuses, very late solicit, four volume BD-only release) and it is down int he 30s now. It’s much too early to evaluate this one yet.

Gundam BF Try is the most likely to snag third if all the other shows I mentioned stumble and lose steam.

For long shots we’ve got Yowapedal s2 and Crossange, but Yowapedal would need to jump considerably on s1 and Crossange will probably see sales along Valverave’s trajectory. Shirobako never managed to crack top 50, but it’s simmering right below the boiling point and could go over the top with one incredibly well-received episode.

Nothing else seems competitive. I think it’s too late for Yuyuyu to have its break-out episode, Gugukoku should do okay at Animate but not enough to compete, Grisaia is down too much from its early adopter boost (though it does have decent storefront presence so I could be writing it off too early!), etc.

I don’t think anything major is left unsolicited either.

Below are the current cumulative point totals, but keep in mind that we’re still at a point where when a title was solicited is a major factor in the point calculations. Note this is not the Stalker final estimates, just points to date.

For example, KimiUso just barely got solicited, so it being so low is totally meaningless.

Points Release date Title
14,982 2014/12/25 Gundam G no Reconquista
7,292 (more like 15k+) 2015/3/25 Fate/stay night Unlimited Blade Works
6,586 2014/12/26 Amagi Brilliant Park
4,445 2015/1/28 Shingeki no Bahamut Genesis
3,626 2014/12/17 Psycho-Pass 2
3,349 2015/1/21 Yowamushi Pedal Grande Road
2,972 2015/3/27 Gundam Build Fighters Try
2,606 2014/12/24 Crossange
2,051 2014/12/25 Grisaia no Kajitsu
1,554 2015/1/28 Mushishi Zoku-shou season 2
1,470 2014/12/24 Madan no Ou to Vanadis
1,423 2015/1/28 Log Horizon 2nd Series
1,394 2014/12/24 Shirobako
1,323 2014/12/24 Gugure! Kokkuri-san
1,175 2014/12/17 Yuuki Yuuna wa Yuusha de Aru
1,052 2014/12/26 Ore, Twintails ni Narimasu
1,033 2014/12/19 Trinity Seven
899 2015/1/21 Ai Tenchi Muyou
748 2015/2/25 selector spread WIXOSS
676 2015/1/28 Nanatsu no Taizai
675 2015/1/28 Sora no Method
671 2014/12/19 Terra Formars
626 2014/12/26 Hitsugi no Chaika: Avenging Battle
550 2014/12/26 Inou Battle wa Nichijou-kei no Naka de
526 2014/12/25 Daitoshokan no Hitsujikai
512 2015/1/16 Danna ga Nani wo Itteiru ka Wakaranai Ken
495 2015/1/21 Girlfriend (Kari)
423 2015/2/25 Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
368 2015/1/21 Donten ni Warau
289 2014/12/24 Ookami-shoujo to Kuro-ouji
223 2014/12/24 Denki-gai no Honya-san
222 2014/12/24 Ushinawareta Mirai wo Motomete

Naturally, not looking great for my planned imports (other than maybe Amagi) but what else is new?

25 Responses to “Prediction Talk: Miscellaneous Fall Ramblings”

  1. Won’t end up a breakout, but Yuyuyu seems like it’ll do ok even if it doesn’t see a major increase in the tiers it ranks at. Been pretty consistently in non-dead territory, and has a total prediction of ~2700 for the BDs, ~300 for the DVDs. Watching it keep 3k would feel significantly better than watching it go splat.

    • something something says:

      Yep, its consistent “not dead” ranking the past few weeks is the only reason I even mentioned it. While I’m 2-3 eps behind on the show, I get the impression it’s not thrown the shit at the fan quite yet, so the window for an original anime breakout is just about closed. Importing decisions are going to be firming up for most people soon.

      • Progeusz says:

        YuYuYu is rather strange because after every single episode you’re left worrying how rest of the series will look. It keeps delivering 10/10 material since the beginning but I’m still very unsure of it future. The show is just too good to be true. I hope it will be one of rare anime which see significant boost at the end when (if) people finally see it was great throughout whole run.

    • Anon says:

      Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t YuYuYu come with a game, or some feature for the Vita Game? It’ll probably suffer a noticeable drop in later volumes.

  2. Mr. Peter says:

    I have a feeling Yuyuyu could end up pulling a Nanoha or a Symphogear if they play their cards right for the new IP.

    And Amaburi, is that going to be Fumoffu-tier in terms of sales? And I wish that would become a big breakout hit.(along side UBW).

    • something something says:

      Fumoffu averaged 8,917, which I think is a bit optimistic for Amaburi, but not impossible. 9k is my presumed upper limit of the range of realistic sales for Amaburi, if it gets a solid bump before the series ends.

      I think Amaburi will sell very similarly to Chuu2 Ren in the end. Solid, but not a break-out hit. Average between 6-7k.

      • Mr. Peter says:

        It feels like they’re treating this as a side project while most of their resources is on some other unannounced thing that could become a hit

        • something something says:

          What, Amaburi? No I definitely think they’re putting as much effort into it as anything else. It looks incredibly good from a production standpoint, for one. Besides, I don’t think Kadokawa would appreciate KyoAni just kinda winging it with their property. I think the staff is completely serious about Amaburi. That, of course, has little to no connection to how much it ends up selling.

          • Mr. Peter says:

            It feels like there are moments they’re panning stills which I don’t usually see from them use often (though they “left the camera running” before)

            • something something says:

              Stills are not always a sign of poor production, they can be a legitimate visual choice. And I think the beautiful character animation and stylistic variation through the rest of the show is the much more important take-away. Definitely seems like a top notch production to me at least.

              • mk03 says:

                So… 6-7k… Is that good for them, or do you think they were expecting more?

                • something something says:

                  Well “they” in this case is more Kadokawa than KyoAni, and Kadokawa’s expectations would be novels sales first, BDs only second. 6-7k is good for most shows, and I don’t think this would be an exception. The novels did get a boost, which helps. Nothing like a Nogenora boost and certainly not matching Hyouka’s performance, but still noticeable. Most of its boost is going to slip under the radar though, just missing the thresholds.

                  It looks like it could be pretty solid overall, just not a “major hit”. But then, not everything needs to be.

                  • AnimePhoenix says:

                    What do you think Kyoani is going to do after Amagi? The KnK movie is in Spring and its too late to announce anything for this Winter so…what so you they’re going to do for Summer 2015 and later?

                    • something something says:

                      They’ve got some KA Esuma novels they’ve not animated yet, but none of them look interesting so I wouldn’t mind if they skipped them all and did another original anime.

                      There is Violet Ever Garden, the first KA Esuma title to win their Grand prize (rather than encouragement awards) but I don’t know if we have any clue what it’s about. It’s not on their website at all yet.

                      So my gut feeling is it’ll end up being Phantom World, but I reallllly hope not. I do not need more “boy with superpowers surrounded by girls” light novel adaptations.

  3. Scruffy says:

    Just a quick question .. I don’t see Akatsuki no Yona on that list. Has that not been solicited yet?

    • something something says:

      Nope, not solicited yet. Sure taking their time! Almost certainly this means boxset release.

      • AnimePhoenix says:

        I hope the manga sales are good enough for it. I need more historical fantasy shoujo anime. And I hope the boxset, if its released as one, does at least 2k.

  4. Johnx says:

    So can UBW sell as many discs as Fate/Zero? Or will it be closer to DEEN’s F/SN?

    • something something says:

      Hard to say. I was assuming it’d go 50k again, but performance at Amazon so far does not indicate that. Though, of course, it’s harder to gauge performance since we don’t have point totals for the non-Amazon version, only rankings, due to the Amazon API issue. I’m still going to assume another 50k until we see otherwise, though.

  5. AnimePhoenix says:

    For some reason I didn’t see a reply button so I’ll just quote this here:

    “something says:

    They’ve got some KA Esuma novels they’ve not animated yet, but none of them look interesting so I wouldn’t mind if they skipped them all and did another original anime.

    There is Violet Ever Garden, the first KA Esuma title to win their Grand prize (rather than encouragement awards) but I don’t know if we have any clue what it’s about. It’s not on their website at all yet.

    So my gut feeling is it’ll end up being Phantom World, but I reallllly hope not. I do not need more “boy with superpowers surrounded by girls” light novel adaptations.”

    Yeah, I am not really interested in their other novels either. I am a bit interested in Violet Ever Garden but I wish there was some image or anything to know what its about. I share your same gut feeling. I hope its not Phantom World either. I want them to do something new and original.

    • Progeusz says:

      There’s a limit to amount of “branches” in “quote tree” or whatever it’s called – you can just reply to the last comment it’s available for and it will show up below last reply – in this case you would reply to your own post but the reply itself would be below something’s comment. (just a little bit of info, starting new comment tree has its profits too because text is more readable)

      • AnimePhoenix says:

        Thank you for that bit of information!

      • something something says:

        Yeah I have wordpress set to 10 max threads, which is the most it allows. Post comments aren’t super well suited to in-depth back and forth discussion sadly, but I still don’t think I want to go through the effort to set up a whole forum. Would be nice, but feels like overkill since most of the comments here are fairly brief questions.

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